Research Shows Outlook For New Writers Still Sluggish

A new study shows writers can’t expect much change on the horizon for the publishing industry. It has always been a challenge for a new writer to become published and it looks like it’s not going to get any easier.

Fountain Hills, AZ (PRWEB) August 4, 2004

A new study shows writers can’t expect much change on the horizon for the publishing industry. It has always been a challenge for a new writer to become published and it looks like it’s not going to get any easier. Over 100 editors and literary agents participated in a survey conducted in mid 2004 by Brian Hill and Dee Power, authors of “The Making of a Bestseller,” Dearborn Trade to be released March 2005. 75% of the participating editors were from major publishing houses; however editors from small and university presses participated as well. The agents completing the survey were from well known agencies as well as boutique agencies.

As part of the Hill and Power 2004 Editors and Agents Survey, participants were asked to rate the current publishing industry environment as more or less favorable for new (unpublished) writers than 12 months ago and to forecast the next 12 to 24 months. The rating was done on a scale of 1 to 5. 1 – much less favorable to 5 – much more favorable.

         Now versus 12 Months Ago                 The Next 12 to 24 Months

Agents            2.5                    2.7

Editors            2.8                    2.8

Neither agents nor editors see a great deal of change on the horizon; both groups were mildly negative about the next 12 to 24 months. Agents had a somewhat dimmer view of the current environment compared to 12 months ago, but also see a slight improvement for the future.

From the Literary Agent’s Point of View

Agents are often thought of as the people who make “deals” happen on behalf of their clients. That of course is their objective. But before the negotiations can begin with a publisher, the agent has to decide which clients to represent out of the hundreds or thousands of authors who contact them every year.

Thus, they perform an important screening function for the publishing industry, keeping editors from being even more inundated with manuscripts and proposals to read than they already are. Agents could be thought of as the leading indicators of the literary marketplace.

The most common reasons given for their negative outlook for the next two years in order of frequency of mention were:

• Industry Consolidation, or Changes (Or lack thereof) within the Publishing Industry Itself
• Changes in Book Retailing
• Publishers are Becoming More Risk Averse
• The Impact of the National Economy

From the Editors

The next generation of bestselling authors begins with those authors struggling to get their first book published. Editors were asked why they thought the forecast for the next 12 to 24 months would not improve for unpublished writers. The editors’ comments fell into several categories in order of frequency of mention:

• Past Track Record of Success Is Becoming More Important to Editors
• The Fiction Market Has Always Been Hard
• Impact of Retailers
• Proliferation of Titles, Manuscripts, Authors
• The National Economy

Looking to the Future in Publishing

The number of titles published continues to increase. There were 19% more titles published in 2003 than in 2002. Oddly enough the total number of books sold in the United States dropped. The Book Industry Study Group, a nonprofit research organization, said that there were 23 million less books sold in 2003 than in 2002. The decline was across hardcovers and paperbacks, in general trade releases and children’s books. Because book prices went up by 2.5% total revenues increased to $27.8 billion in 2003.

One explanation for the anomaly of the substantial increase in published titles, 19%, and the decrease for the total number of books sold might be the ever increasing impact of Publish On Demand (POD) companies like iUniverse.com, Xlibris, authorshouse.com and PublishAmerica. These companies published nearly 18,000 different titles with the average number of copies sold for each title less than 100. Generally POD books are not stocked by bricks and mortar stores.

Advice from Editors

There may be a silver lining on the horizon. Writers should heed the advice from editors on how to succeed as an author.

“Publishing is such an exciting industry--but it's not as romantic as many people think it is. Be as prepared as possible!”

“We love books and want to help authors, but are pulled in many directions, so we tend to look for authors who help rather than those who are overly needy. A strong, complete book proposal helps tremendously and an author who has researched publishing and can help promote his or her book is much more likely to have a positive experience with publishing.”

“Having a clear vision of what you want your book to be and knowing the competition you're up against is a key part of creating a great book and getting noticed. On a crazy day in the life of an editor, who has piles of paper on his/her desk, an incomplete or sloppy proposal can mean the difference between getting a book deal and ending up in the reject pile.”

“All I know is that I still care about books and writing more than anything, and I think publishing is fascinating. It only stands to reason that because I care so much, I often find fault with our industry, but I cannot help feeling that what we do really still does matter, and so there is that ongoing tension between what we might be and what we are.”

The Hill and Power 2004 Editors and Agents Survey is available at no cost. Please send an email to authors@brianhillanddeepower.com with “writers report” in the subject or in the body of the email.

Media Contact Only: Dee Power or Brian Hill

Phone 480-837-9590 Fax 480-837-6680 Email: Dee@brianhillanddeepower.com

About Brian Hill and Dee Power

Brian Hill and Dee Power are the founders of Profit Dynamics Inc., a research and consulting firm. They were inspired by their own publishing experiences to research and write The Making of a Bestseller: Success Stories From Authors and the Editors, Agents and Booksellers Behind Them, ISBN 0793193087, Dearborn Trade, to be released March 2005    They are the authors of “Attracting Capital From Angels,” and “Inside Secrets To Venture Capital.” Several of their screenplays are currently under consideration in Hollywood. They have finished writing “Inside The Crescent Moon,” a novel. You can reach them through their website, http://www.BrianHillAndDeePower.com or email authors@brianhillanddeepower.com