The Great Energy Transition

The National Capital Region World Future Society on November 18, 2004 will host a dinner discussion with prominent futurist, Mr. Robert Olsen, on future possibilities for energy. Current forecasts indicate that within a decade or perhaps two, the 50% point in terms of the world oil reserves will be reached, where we are fast approaching having consumed nearly half of the recoverable oil on Earth. Mr. Olsen will present perspectives about the challenges and opportunities needed for a new energy future for our world.

(PRWEB) November 9, 2004 -- Another Great Energy Transition beyond oil must occur over the generations just ahead. Global oil demand will exceed global production of conventional oil, and we will need to shift away from oil to limit global warming. A high-stakes debate is raging today about when global oil production will peak and begin to decline. If the peak oil pessimists are right, the negative economic and social consequences are going to be huge and we need to be thinking about how to adapt. If the optimists are right, we may have just enough time to make a smooth transition to a new energy regime, if we mobilize now.

The problem is there is no single, clear optimum solution on the horizon for replacing oil and limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, there are a lot of competing partial solutions, and there is very little effort going into developing new energy solutions. One of the greatest contributions futurists could make is to call attention to the urgency of the Great Energy Transition and to help project and evaluate alternative transition paths into the energy future.

Energy transitions are a central factor in the evolution of civilization. The invention of agriculture was essentially an innovation in capturing solar energy and storing it in caloric form. The coal-driven industrial revolution produced a revolution in productivity. The Oil Age of the 20th century brought unprecedented mobility - locally, nationally, and around the world. With burgeoning demand in our own country and developing nations how will we meet our energy needs in the near and far future?

Bob Olson is a senior fellow at the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) and its for-profit subsidiary, Alternative Futures Associates (AFA). He was a founding member of IAF's Board of Directors in 1977, along with Dr. Clem Bezold and Alvin Toffler and has extensive experience as a motivational speaker and a consultant on future-oriented decision-making. Mr. Olsen examines the frontiers of innovation in a wide range of areas, from information, the environment and health to transportation, architecture and urban design, and education. His work on areas related to energy such as the future of the hydrogen economy is well respected both for its innovative insight and candor regarding challenges to attain it.

See Mr. Olsen discuss The Great Energy Transition", on November 18, 2004 from 6:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m., at the Embassy Suites Hotel, Chevy Chase Pavilion, Friendship Heights, Washington, D.C. To sign up, visit the National Capital Region World Future Society website at www.natcapwfs.org.

About National Capital Region World Future Society (NatCapWFS):

Our organization is serving future interested and thinking citizens across the Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia region. NatCapWFS is the center for ideas, within the Region, that studies, explores and shapes the future. NatCapWFS hosts monthly events open to the public. For event information, visit: www.natcapwfs.org.

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