Is the :30 TV Commercial Dead or Alive?

Television is the clear choice of advertisers -- capturing two thirds of the national ad dollars spent in mass media. As if they are on cut and paste remote control, media plans are routinely developed with 70% or more of the budget behind :30 TV commercials and without much consideration of alternatives. But is that 30-second staple of TV advertisers about to disappear?

(PRWEB) January 24, 2005

Many leading advertising pundits have been warning of the death of television advertising. Is that likely--or has the rumor of TV’s death been greatly exaggerated? To talk about that issue, we interviewed Ron Geskey, CEO of 2020: Marketing Communications LLC which publishes the popular Thumbnail Media Planner and AdMediaStore.com. Geskey is also a former senior ad executive at several large advertising agencies.

Q: Hasn't the rumor of TV’s death been greatly exaggerated?

A: I think certain forms of television will certainly survive. But I don’t think commercial television— and the :30 commercial in particular-- will survive as we have known them-- especially the line networks and local stations.

Q: What will cause the demise of the the :30 TV commercial?

A: There are a number of converging technologies, which are still in their infancy today-- like PVRs, which will begin maturing in less than five years. As PVR penetration grows from 5% to 70%, and since people with PVRs eliminate the commercials 80 per cent of the time, there probably won’t be much of a TV advertising audience left. And there are a lot of other emerging developments which will further add to the demise of the :30 commercial.

Q: People said the same thing when VCRs came out?

A: Yes, there were those who felt that VCRs would kill commercial television-- which obviously didn’t occur-- perhaps because so much effort was required to zap the commercials. However, the difference is, the impact of PVRs has been pretty well tested and PVRs are only part of the story. The root problem is that the industry has continued to put TV advertising out there that people don’t want to see.

Q: Are you saying that there won’t be any television advertising down the road?

A. No, there will be television advertising, but it will be different than what you see

today in :30 commercials. Creative will be different, media will be different, and I think creative and media people will finally HAVE to work together.

Q: What happens to the networks and the 1600+ television stations?

A: A very good question. Since the networks and stations rely on the sale of :30 spots to national and local advertisers, they will need a new business model to survive. There is some experimenting going on with different ways of integrating programming and advertising.

Q: What about ad agencies?

A: Like the other players, ad agencies will have to adapt to a new and very different world where the priority is placed on developing the media function, creating a very different kind of creative product, and the willingness to explore and test alternatives before the ship has sailed. Ad agencies and advertisers should be planning and testing alternatives for tomorrow’s ad world today.

About 2020:Marketing Communications LLC

2020 is a marketing and media consulting and publishing company. Geskey has also been a senior media and account management executive at Leo Burnett, D’Arcy, and Campbell Ewald.

To purchase “Is the :30 TV Commercial Really Dead?” visit http://www.admediastore.com or check out the 2005 Thumbnail Media Planner at http://www.thumbnailmediaplanner.com. You can also contact Ron Geskey to discuss this article or a consulting engagement via email or by phone.

###