That Arkansas Earthquake: Dont Worry, Right?

Analysis: The February 11 earthquake in Arkansas warns us of a grave risk in the central United States that few realize exists, one that could wipe out 10% of our GDP. The US lags in planning and preparing for a giant earthquake and must do more.

(PRWEB) February 14, 2005 -- Thursday morning, February 10, at 8:04:54 am, seismic forces ripped a fracture the size of a 160-acre farm through the basement rock 16 kilometers below the Buffalo Creek Ditch, 10 miles west-southwest of Dell, Arkansas. Residents felt the earthquake from the 4.1 magnitude temblor strongly from Cairo, Illinois, to Tunica, Mississippi, and points east. Even folks in sophisticated Memphis, 47 miles away, looked around in wonder.

In the book Memphis 7.9, the fictional Dr. Paul Kenton reported on the first fictional earthquake, At 9:12 this morning a magnitude 4.4 earthquake occurred at a depth of 11.3 kilometers with an epicenter near Dell, Arkansas. While this temblor is stronger than usual, events like this are a common occurrence on the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and there is nothing to worry about."

There is nothing to worry about"-words to live in infamy.

The New Madrid Seismic Zone, stretching from east central Arkansas to the southern tip of Illinois, is a major source of concern to the US Geological Survey and FEMA. In 1811 and 1812 a series of giant earthquakes fractured that fault zone, creating ten new lakes in the Mississippi valley, tilting the land and forcing the Mississippi River to run backwards, and reportedly ringing church bells in Boston, over a thousand miles away-the strongest earthquake to strike the contiguous 48 States in recorded history.

The USGS says there is a one in ten chance of another giant earthquake on the New Madrid Fault in the next fifty years. Most seismologists agree that a giant New Madrid earthquake is eventually inevitable. It is only a matter of time before an earthquake of magnitude 7.9, roughly the size of the first earthquake that struck December 16, 1811, once again fractures the New Madrid.

How Bad Could It Be-What Is The Risk?

An estimated five thousand white settlers and black slaves could be found along the Mississippi River in 1811, and less than a million resided west of the Appalachian Mountains. These hardy frontiersmen and their families lived close to the earth in the forests and along the riverbanks in log cabins or on their boats. Eleven deaths were officially reported, but some historians estimate that as many as a thousand souls perished along the river during the two months of shaking. The fatality rate in the fracture zone could have been 10% or more.

The USGS and FEMA have published studies to estimate the expected shaking intensity from earthquakes of various magnitudes along the New Madrid Fault. When those estimates are cross-multiplied by the US census, the results are staggering. Today, an estimated 32,000,000 people live in the 300,000-square-mile area surrounding the fault that would be at risk of damage from a giant earthquake of magnitude 7.9 on the New Madrid.

In a worst-case scenario, the death toll would be 20,000 and grow to 80,000 if major flooding resulted from the shaking. Half a million people would be injured, and as many as 10,000,000 could be left homeless. And to make matters worse, those who survive-and are faced with bringing about the recovery of the United States-could find that 10% of the countrys Gross Domestic Product and 20% of its shipping capacity had been wiped out in the space of 13 minutes, the time it takes for the seismic waves to spread across the eastern half of our country from an epicenter on the New Madrid.

The February 11 seismic event in Arkansas tells us once again that the New Madrid Seismic Zone is still an active fault. It is only a matter of time before another giant earthquake will once again rip through the center of the United States. There is no way to stop the earthquake, but we can-and must-reduce the potential damage.

Preparation and Planning Make a Difference.

A lesson for our country to learn is that by becoming aware and preparing and planning, we can make a difference. Too often, local leaders and business interests downplay the danger, unwilling to invest in a safe future from even when the risk is the destruction of our countrys way of life. The human race can significantly reduce the level of the tragedy associated with such a natural disaster, but not by sticking our head in the sand.

Pro-active leadership is required. Support of the seismological and structural research efforts of the Universities, the public education efforts of the Central United States Earthquake Consortium, and the preparedness and mitigation efforts of the state and local Emergency Management Agencies is vital. More funding from the government and business is needed. Public awareness of what the future holds is essential.

Five years ago some scientists wondered, What would happen if a giant tsunami should strike in the Indian Ocean?" Now they know. Had the governments been proactive at that time, the toll would have been much less than the 225,000 who have died so far.

Now is the time for everyone across the country to realize the stake they have in how well the people in the New Madrid damage zone plan and prepare for this inevitable event. True, it may not happen in our lifetime, but what if it does? Now is the time to become proactive in the central United States.

Mother Nature gives us only so many warnings. After February 11 there is one fewer than before on the New Madrid.

About Sam Penny.

Sam Penny retired from a career in physics, computer science, engineering, and corporate management to become an author. His analysis of the present-day effects of another giant earthquake on the New Madrid Seismic Zone serves as the basis for Memphis 7.9 and Broken River, the first two books in The 7.9 Scenario series of novels. He continues to write, working on his next novel and a non-fiction book detailing his analysis.

Pennys objective is to raise public awareness of the danger our country faces from the New Madrid Fault, and to lobby for increased funding and action to prepare, plan, and mitigate the inevitable disaster. Having written and read scientific articles in the past, Penny understands the limitations of disseminating information to the public through those channels. Instead, he is presenting the results of his studies as a what if" story and is writing novels in The 7.9 Scenario series, telling of how such an earthquake occurs, what it does to our environment, and what to expect afterwards. Some say it is Science Fiction; others call it Reality Fiction.

Memphis 7.9 and Broken River are available on-line from the authors website at www.the79scenario.com. The books are also available from www.amazon.com, www.booksurge.com, and in selected bookstores around the country.

Penny is traveling throughout the eastern half of the country on an extended book tour and is available for questions and radio/TV interviews by telephone. Review copies are available for the media upon request.

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