Saudi Production and Reserve Estimates Questioned

Despite very public guarantees from officials, a Saudi commitment to increase production in the face of dramatic world crude oil demand may not be sustainable, according to a report in the current issue Middle East Business Strategies.

(PRWEB) July 18, 2005 -- Middle East Business Strategies is published by WorldTrade Executive, Inc. in association with Dow Jones, publisher of the Wall Street Journal.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi has categorically stated that the kingdom has 1.5 million bpd of excess capacity beyond the current production ceiling of 9.5 million bpd. In late May, the minister told a California audience that Saudi Arabia would be increasing the capacity further to 12.5 million bpd, by 2009, and al-Naimi told an audience at a Massachusetts Institute of Technology program in Riyadh that daily production could be increased to 15 million bpd, if required.

No less that 17 public pronouncements have been made by Saudi officials between mid February and the second week of July, all attesting to long-term sustainable increased production. Yet sources have told Middle East Business Strategies that publicly stated projections of Saudi crude oil production increase may not be sustainable.

The skeptics include Sadad al-Husseini, who until March 2004 was the president of Aramco. In response to a specific question on the sustainability of the 15 million bpd production level, al-Husseini told Middle East Business Strategies that the level would be difficult to achieve without signification dislocation of the reservoirs and could not be maintained long term.

The current report of Middle East Business Strategies also contains a detailed exclusive report on moves by Iraq officials to hold the first open international tender by the transitional Iraqi government for second generation mobile phone licenses to replace current licenses awarded in late 2003.

In addition to Middle East Business Strategies, other energy periodicals produced by WorldTrade Executive, Inc. include Russian Petroleum Investor, Caspian Investor and Latin American Energy Report.

More information on Middle East Business Strategies is available at http://www.wtexecutive.com or by contacting Jay Stanley at WorldTrade Executive, Inc. at 978-287-0301 or at 2250 Main St., Concord, MA 01742.

###