Discontinuity: Food Scarcity

What if genetically-modified food led to a worldwide food shortage?

Washington, DC (PRWEB) April 3, 2008 -- The DC-based research and consulting firm Social Technologies recently released a series of briefs called "Discontinuities," those sudden, sharp breaks that can strike consumers, business sectors, nations, or the world with disruptive force. Exactly when, where, or how such events will occur is inherently hard to foresee.

Here is an exploration of one potential discontinuity in the food sector: Food Scarcity.

Consider this: The global acreage of genetically-modified (GM) crops planted in 2006 totaled 252 million acres in more than 20 countries. Globally, more than 10 million farmers are planting some form of GM crops. GM planting at this scale could cause a discontinuity due to massive contamination of non-GM foods, leading to global food scarcities, according to Christopher Kent, an analyst at the futurist research and consulting firm Social Technologies.

"Incidents of inadvertent cross-pollination of GM test plantings with non-GM crops have already occurred, and potentially dangerous allergens have been introduced into conventional plants by genetic modification, though they were caught during the research phase," Kent explains. "A destructively cross-pollinating or allergy-producing GM crop could be planted on a large scale before a problem was caught, resulting in a useless or dangerous crop and/ or damage to non-GM varieties. This risk may rise as anti-biotech activists try to block the development and commercialization of GM seeds that are sterile and cannot reproduce."

Such contamination by a dangerous or incompatible GM variety could render vast amounts of food crops inedible due to stunted, rotten, or otherwise unusable plants, he notes.

"Even if the contaminated crops are deemed healthy and edible by an accredited scientific or medical agency, food-importing countries with strong anti-GM rules would have to scramble to suspend laws banning the import and sale of GM-contaminated crops," Kent adds. "A GM-caused food scarcity could occur on a huge scale: 90% of all soy and 73% of all corn in the US is genetically modified."

Recent research into the human genome is demonstrating that currently accepted ideas about gene function could be incorrect, and lends support to the argument of anti-GM forces that there is still not enough knowledge about GMOs to guarantee their safety.

Threat of allergens

Allergens could be introduced when a gene is transplanted from one plant into another to convey particular benefits to the receiving plant.

"Genes are responsible for protein production, and proteins are involved in food allergies," Kent explains. "Early experiments in transferring a gene from a Brazil nut to make soy healthier were abandoned after it became clear that the new gene affected people with nut allergies."

Beyond allergens, secondary effects of gene transfer are still poorly understood.

"In one case, when a gene for pesticide resistance was introduced into peas, the resulting legume damaged the lungs of mice that ate it," he adds. "While these two incidents highlight situations where testing caught side effects before commercialization of a product, worries persist that too little is known about gene expression and that some GM crops that reach commercialization could turn out to be dangerous for some consumers."

What is the cumulative probability of GM-caused food scarcity? Kent believes the risk of a GM crop accident is more likely in the short term as industry and regulatory knowledge of GMOs is still incomplete. As testing and learning increase, the risk will drop.

Consumer impact

A GM food-related discontinuity would affect consumers globally in specific ways:

• Any widespread problems caused by GM crops would result in demands for stricter regulations over food safety and biotechnology.

• Consumer worries about the safety of GM crops, either in cultivation or in consumption, would likely drive up interest in organic foods.

• Along with the turn to organics, some consumers could reject processed foods, turn to fresh ingredients, and/ or adopt the tenets of the slow-food movement.

By their nature, discontinuities cannot be precisely anticipated, so they require companies to be flexible in their thinking and agile in their response, with attention to potentially far-reaching effects.

Learn more

To talk to Christopher Kent about these gamechangers and their relevance to major business sectors, contact Hope Gibbs, Social Technologies' leader of corporate communications: hope.gibbs@socialtechnologies.com.

Christopher Kent ) Futurist

Christopher Kent is a writer/analyst with more than 10 years' experience tracking emerging public policy and social policy issues, primarily with Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting), a leading geopolitical-intelligence service. His expertise spans topics such as consumer and industry trends in the energy sector, the future of China, consumer lifestyles in Europe, and the impacts of microcredit in World 3. Christopher also oversees Social Technologies' internship program. He has an MA in the history of the Middle Ages and the Renaissance from the University of Toronto, and an undergraduate degree in history and English from Marquette University. Areas of expertise: Media and entertainment, tourism and leisure.

About ) Social Technologies

Social Technologies is a global research and consulting firm specializing in the integration of foresight, strategy, and innovation. With offices in Washington DC, London, and Shanghai, Social Technologies serves the world's leading companies, government agencies, and nonprofits. For information visit www.socialtechnologies.com, our blog: http://changewaves.socialtechnologies.com, and our newsletter: www.socialtechnologies.com/changewaves.

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