Discontinuity: Health-Enhanced Crops

Crops that are enhanced with beneficial or medicinal traits could help fight disease and health problems in Worlds 2 and 3, significantly boosting average lifespan in these regions.

Washington, DC (PRWEB) April 16, 2008 -- As part of our series on discontinuities (those sudden, sharp breaks that can strike consumers, business sectors, nations, or the world with disruptive force), comes this brief on health-enhanced crops by Social Technologies' analyst Christopher Kent.

"Enhanced crops are those that have been genetically modified to express a nutrient (such as a vitamin) or a vaccine for a common illness," Kent explains, noting that a number of different crops are being modified to express nutritional or medicinal traits:

•    Rice. The best-known enhanced crop is so-called "golden rice," which has been modified to produce elevated levels of vitamin A to treat vitamin A deficiency.

•    Tomatoes. Researchers are working to create tomatoes able to produce vaccines for diphtheria and SARS.

•    Potatoes. Spuds have also been engineered to produce vaccines for the Norwalk virus, cholera, and hepatitis B.

Health-enhanced crops defined

In addition to heralding a new model for disease treatment in Worlds 2 and 3, Kent believes the development and dissemination of enhanced food crops could save millions of lives a year in those countries alone.

"Health-enhanced crops would give people access to needed medicines that, in conventional form, never reach the poorest populations due to lack of money and infrastructure," says Kent, who believes the impact of easily grown or easily delivered vaccines and fortified crops would be considerable.

"Vitamin A deficiency affects 120 million children each year in Worlds 2 and 3," he notes. "Of those afflicted, as many as 500,000 go blind as a result. Plus, vitamin A deficiency contributes to childhood mortality associated with measles and diarrhea. The commercial development of vitamin A-fortified rice could be a cheap and easy way to boost vitamin A intake in Worlds 2 and 3, reducing infant mortality and blindness."

Other diseases being addressed by enhanced crops would also affect large numbers of people: diarrheal diseases contribute to 10 million deaths in Worlds 2 and 3 per year, and globally, 350 million people are infected with hepatitis B.

Cumulative probability of a health-enhanced crop revolution

Of course, many of these fortified plants are already in field trials, though the testing may not be complete until nearly 2020.

"If trials are successful, these plants could be grown commercially to treat their targeted conditions," Kent says. "Such crops might in time be replaced by other, more efficient ways of treating vitamin and nutrient deficiencies and diseases plaguing the world's poor."

Consumer impact

Health-enhanced crops could have local or global implications. For example:

•    The most immediate impact of enhanced crops could be improved health for millions of malnourished consumers in Worlds 2 and 3.

•    Successful adoption and use of any of these health-enhanced crops could support efforts to completely eliminate more diseases, as was done with smallpox.

Learn more

To talk to Christopher Kent about this discontinuity and its relevance to major business sectors, contact Hope Gibbs, Social Technologies' leader of corporate communications: hope.gibbs@socialtechnologies.com.

About The Discontinuities Series

Social Technologies recently released a series of briefs called Discontinuities, which are those sudden, sharp breaks that can strike consumers, business sectors, nations, or the world with disruptive force. Exactly when, where, or how such events will occur is inherently hard to foresee. This brief explores one potential discontinuity in the food sector. In the coming weeks, be on the lookout for more of our Discontinuities press releases regarding the food, health, and mobility industries.

Christopher Kent | Futurist

Christopher Kent is a writer/analyst with more than 10 years' experience tracking emerging public policy and social policy issues, primarily with Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting), a leading geopolitical-intelligence service. His expertise spans topics such as consumer and industry trends in the energy sector, the future of China, consumer lifestyles in Europe, and the impacts of microcredit in World 3. Christopher also oversees Social Technologies' internship program. He has an MA in the history of the Middle Ages and the Renaissance from the University of Toronto, and an undergraduate degree in history and English from Marquette University. Areas of expertise: Media and entertainment, tourism and leisure.

About Social Technologies

Social Technologies is a global research and consulting firm specializing in the integration of foresight, strategy, and innovation. With offices in Washington DC, London, and Shanghai, Social Technologies serves the world's leading companies, government agencies, and nonprofits. For information visit www.socialtechnologies.com, our blog: http://changewaves.socialtechnologies.com, and our newsletter: www.socialtechnologies.com/changewaves

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