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AXXel Knutson of TradingWeapon.com issues New Buys
Axxel Knutson issued his stronges buy alert since August of 1981 on September 20th, 2001. He has since panned the Nasdaq 100 stocks saying that most of them are no better than neutral and here offers succestions in the mid and small cap-his favored sector
February 13, 2002
Prices 2.12.02
AXXel's VTAR Newsletter-
New Names, new Market
Using, AXXel Knutson's
VTAR
["Volume Trade Analysis Research"]
"Manage the risk...the profits will take care of themselves"
| | - this business, being right is not as important as making money...consistently, and one of primary tenets of the quest is the avoidance of the 'obvious risk'"
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Securities offered through
First Allied Securities, Inc.
Member NASD & SIPC
197 Mountainview Road - Warren - NJ - 07059
Email: axxel@optonline or tradingweapon@aol.com
Telephone: 908.647.5750 FAX: 708.585.6185
First Allied is registered in all states. Mr. Knutson's registered states are listed in the disclaimer section. TradingWeapon VTAR [Volume Trade Analysis Research] TradingWeapon & TradingEngine is Trade and service marked by and owned by Axxel Knutson.
| | - 1999-2002 all rights reserved, AXXel Knutson
| ["Tradingweapon.com" is the business name for AXXel Knutson, who is a Registered Principal of an independently owned office of Supervisory Jurisdiction [OSJ] with First Allied Securities, Inc. TradingWeapon.com offers all of its securities business through First Allied Securities, Inc., a member of the NASD/SIPC. Bear Stearns Securities Corp. is the clearing agent for First Allied. Securities. Inc
Copart, Inc. [CPRT-22.75] maybe not an exciting industry, selling salvage vehicles, but the money is there and doing a job that no one else want to do can ring the cash register. The stock has a solid base at the mid teens and the move to the low twenties is nearly consolidated. Accumulate here and a "strong buy" on an approach to $20 even or a break of $20.
Cray Compuer [CRAY-2.25] we are not quite there in terms of price, but a break toward $2.00 will motivate us to the buy side. Cray Inc. designs, develops and markets high performance general-purpose parallel computer systems for use in a variety of scientific, engineering and commercial applications.
Evans & Sutherland Corp [ESCC-6.65] Accumulate sub $7.00-the break in September was not yet consolidated and now we have additional emphasis in the defense sector. ESCC develops & manufactures hardware & software for visual systems that produce vivid and realistic 3D graphics and synthetic
environments product for simulation, training, & virtual reality
applications.
Va Software Corp. [LNUX-1.95] the decline post 9/11 was a speculative down move and the move to $3.25 equally speculative. But now we are back in the base and sub $2.00. Accumulate here. Pilot positions only please.
Renaissance Learning [RLRN-33.75] we are re-visiting RLRN and think that the stock can provide decent returns for us once again. A recent spike $29-36 is slightly bothersome in the very short-term, but there has been some consolidation. Accumulate here and we will go to a "strong buy" on any approach to $30 or a break of $30 which is unlikely.
Renaissance Learning provides learning information systems to grades K-12, consisting of computer software and related training designed to improve students' academic performance by increasing the quality, quantity and timeliness of performance data. For the FY ended 12/31/01, revenues rose 24% to $132.4M. Net income rose 34% to $30.7M. Results reflect a strong growth in math and reading sales and improvement in operating profit margin.
Datakey, Inc. [DKEY-4.80] a pilot position-The stock has a base at $2.00 and double spikes on news in October and again in January-those spikes took the stock to $6.00 twice. Our buy point would be a break of $4.00. Datakey, Inc. is an international provider of smart card-based information security and digital signature solutions. For the 9 months ended 9/29/01, revenues totaled $5.1M, up from $2.2M. Net loss from continuing operations fell 13% to $2.1M. Revenues reflect the shipment of a significant portion of the Canadian DND order. Net loss reflects higher S/G/A expenses due to higher product promotion expenses and increases in staffing. It might be worth listening to the following: Datakey Inc. (Nasdaq: DKEY), a leading developer of smart card technology for securing e-business, announced today that it will hold a teleconference to discuss fourth quarter and fiscal year 2001 results on Wednesday, Feb. 20, 2002, at 9:30 a.m. Central Time (10:30 a.m. Eastern). Datakey is scheduled to release financial results for the quarter and year ended Dec. 31, 2001, after the close of market on Feb. 19.
The conference call may be accessed by dialing 800-252-8230 a few minutes prior
to the scheduled start time on Feb. 20. Callers should ask for the Datakey call.
Echelon Corp. [ELON-18.95] is putting up the numbers and the stock has not yet had the post 9/11 tech run. It appears as if that can start soon. The recent activity $13 to $22 was OK base to peak but now under $20, it looks as if this is the place to accumulate. Echelon Corporation develops, markets and supports hardware and software products and services that enable original equipment manufacturers and systems integrators to design and implement open,
interoperable, distributed networks. For the FY ended 12/31/01, total revenues rose 55% to $76.6M. Net income totaled $6M, up from $84K. Results reflect increased product sales under ENEL programs and higher
interest income.
Helen of Troy [HELE-11.75] with a nice progression of revenue increases and earnings, this stock has developed volatility and since we are in the base we will buy. Helen of Troy Limited designs, develops & sells hair dryers, curling irons, hot air brushes, brush irons, lighted mirrors, hair setters, brushes, combs, foot baths, women's shavers, hair accessories, body massagers & hair clippers. For the 9 months ended 11/30/01, sales
increased 23% to $348.2M. Net income rose 77% to $24.9M.
Household International [HI-52.55] added to the report on 2.13.02 at 2:23 ET. We think that there has been a break in HI from the 55-60 level and that the group dynamics are very negative. Opinion: Sell. Traders who know what they are doing could consider short if stock can be borrowed. Short positions involve unique risks-if you are not aware of them or are too lazy to find out, don't do it.
American Locker Group [ALGI-11.99] a strong buy - great revenues and bottom line performance and the stock has already demonstrated power with the move September to December nine to seventeen plus. We expect an attack on that high and if revenues can continue to progress it is likely the test will be successful. American Locker Group is engaged primarily in the sale and rental
of lockers, including coin, key and electronically controlled checking
lockers and related locks, and plastic centralized mail and parcel
distribution lockers. For the 9 months ended 9/30/01, revenues rose 9% to
$29.3M. Net income rose 13% to $2.2M. Revenues reflect increased plastic
locker sales to the U.S. Postal Service. Net income also reflects decreased S/G/A expenditures.
ALGI Chart courtesy of Clearstaton.com
Playtex Products, Inc. [PYX-10.48] had a difficult year but lower interest rates have benefited the company along with new products hitting the deck in 2002. the base is extensive at $9-10 and recent activity suggests that we may be breaking to the upside. Often we can expect a violent pullback. Buy here and more if the pullback occurs.
PYX Chart courtesy of Clearstaton.com
Astronics Corp. [ATRO-9.02] we have been waiting for a break of ten for this company as we believe the selling has been measurably overdone. The selling "heart attacks" began in May and June, 2001 with a break $22 to under $12, another wave $14 to sub-ten in September. Tax-selling in December to ten and again this week. We believe the VTAR numbers are suggesting that the stock is now a "strong buy." Astronics Corporation designs, manufactures and markets specialized lighting systems and ruggedized electro-mechanical assemblies, and is a direct marketing provider of proprietary designs of paperboard folding
boxes & paper products. For the 9 months ended 9/29/01, net sales rose 29% to $62.7M. Net income rose 23% to $4.4M. Results reflect increased
Aerospace-Elecronics sales in the F-16 program, partially offset by higher
energy & freight cost.
QLT, Inc. [QLTI-18.32] we like drug companies that make money. Strange comment perhaps, but when we can pick and choose from any company, why not? We think we have a significant triple bottom at the $16 level and an easy target appears to be the mid-20's. Strong Buy.
Here is from the corporate site: "QLT Inc. earned its reputation as a world leader in photodynamic therapy (PDT), a field of medicine that uses light-activated drugs to combat debilitating diseases, but bolstered its business and reputation when it brought to market Visudyne (verteporfin) therapy. Visudyne was developed to treat wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD), the leading cause of blindness in people over the age of 50.
"Of the 490 publicly traded biotech companies around the world, only 14 are profitable, and QLT is one of them," says Julia Levy, PhD, President and CEO. "Visudyne is an important
reason for our growth. It was the largest
ophthalmic product launch on record, with sales of US $150 million in the first 12 months." The product is now commercially available in over 50
countries worldwide for the treatment of
predominantly classic AMD.
QLT co-developed Visudyne with Novartis Ophthalmics, the eye health unit of Novartis AG. QLT is responsible for manufacturing the product, while Novartis Ophthalmics markets the product worldwide.
QLTI Chart courtesy Clearstation.com
Neogen Corp. [NEOG-15.20] a similar situation to QLT above. A set of "galloping" bottoms at 8, 12, 14 and 14 and tops at 10, 14, 18, and 24+ We now expect NEOG to move back to the 20's and likely kiss the teens goodbye forever-we will see, but this is the place to start.
NEOG Chart courtesy Clearstation.com
NEOG develops, manufactures, and markets a line of products dedicated to food and animal safety. NEOG's products are used for animal health applications, food safety testing and in medical research. For the 6 months ended 11/30/01, revenues rose 19% to $20.4M. Net income increased 31% to $2M. Revenues reflect increased sales of test kits to detect harmful bacteria. Earnings also reflect a favorable product mix.
Meridian Biosciences [VIVO-6.73] a trade to 9 ½ 10 perhaps...solid short-term base at this level and a recent spike to $7.50 + = the obvious target for the stock to sneak to and then blast to double digits at which point it is a sale. A trade...nothing more and nothing less.
Enron[ ENE-no bid] Sell.
I guess.
Apache Corp. [APA-49.51] it is Apache's time...with nearly a $33.00 book value and the company performing on all levels, APA, 15 points below the base and wound like a spring has the 60's in view and this time we think APA move through that decade instead of stalling. Buy.
Murphy Oil [MUR-80.09] we think to break above the traffic at 85. Trade it.
With oil likely to be interrupted from the Mideast, some investment in crude producers appears rational. What also appears rational is to raise the gasoline tax to tax idiots like the writer out of his gas hog Jag...but that is too rational for the U.S. Make gas $7.00/gallon and guess what? My next car will be a Geo Metro and I will still get to the Piggly Wiggly before you. And at $7.00/a gallon, we will import no imported oil and interest rates will drop a full 100 basis points improving the competitive position of the USA and improving our defense structure because we will no longer be dependent upon production from countries who hate our guts.
But I digress....
M.H. Meyerson [MHMY-$0.40]
Some chart, eh? Martin Meyerson, Chmn./CEO/CFO. No comment.
Speaking of nuts,
MI Macadamia Orchards [NUT-3.35] with a yield of 5.8% this stock could dribble toward 5...if so, the combination of yield and price appreciation could suggest we are not so nuts after all. L Macadamia Orchards, L.P. is a publicly traded partnership engaged in the business of growing macadamia nuts in Hawaii. For the 9 months ended 9/30/01, sales rose 14% to $9.9M. Net income applicable to Limited Partners fell 27% to $764K. Revenues benefited from the addition of contract farming revenues and $1M in litigation gains. Earnings reflect
a decrease in gross margins and an increase in borrowings.
AND WITH A NAME LIKE...
SMUCKER...
J.M. Smucker [SJM-31.30] with the strong breakouts in October and again in November, 2001, we now have the pullback for our entry. So enter. Yield. 1.99%. SJM manufactures and markets food products such as fruit spreads, dessert toppings, peanut butter, bakery & yogurt fillings, juices, juice beverages, syrups, gift packages and condiments. I like strawberry, but the best is from Canada [Loblaws] and your $$$ goes further there unless it is a C$. People with C$ have to go to NZL to get a break.
Newmont Mining [NEM-23.97] gold has been strong...silver as well [note Hecla HL-$1.35] but NEM is still in the base...granted near the top, but we think there is a lot more in this stock and that could take us to $40 according to our VTAR numbers. Buy. And Hecla as well. Here is the Hecla chart:
HL Chart=Clearstation.com
DISCLAIMER
Investment decisions should not be based solely on our proprietary indicators, which are intended as an adjunct to your additional analysis. Please accept these comments as market commentary. We do not intend these comments to replace detailed fundamental analysis. We urge you to accomplish that additional research via your contacts on the Internet or through a trusted financial advisor. If you want additional information on any of the securities discussed within, we will give it upon your request.
This report has been prepared from original sources and company data we believe to be reliable, but we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. This report is published solely for information purposes. It is not to be construed either as an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or the provision of or an offer to provide investment services in any state where such an offer, solicitation or provision would be illegal. Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment on this date and are subject to change without notice and we likely not update that change to you. The opinions expressed are that of AXXel Knutson and are not necessarily representative of First Allied. First Allied Securities, Inc., its affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold, or sell a position in the securities mentioned herein.
The author of this report, Axxel Knutson, very rarely invests in any of the securities mentioned in these reports nor does his immediate family unless such securities are management companies of mutual funds or indirectly if such equities are included in mutual funds or index options. Equity investment involves risk of capital loss. We recommend that your portfolio be diversified by company size, industry group, and geographic region and by currency.
It should not be assumed that future selections will be profitable or will equal the performance of past selections. Securities listed herein illustrate selections made using proprietary indicators known as VTAR [Volume Trade Analysis Research]. These names, VTAR, TradingWeapon, www.TradingWeapon.com Trading Engine, www.tradingengine.com , Volume Trade Analysis Research, are service marks/trademarks of AXXel Knutson.
All recommendations and commentary are directed toward sophisticated, aggressive traders who have significant experience trading in a volatile market and who possess the financial resources to risk a loss of some or all of their invested funds. Commissions and, if you use margin, interest charges will lessen any return on investment. VTAR [Volume Trade Analysis Research] centers around the proprietary analysis of trading volume, price, general fundamental analysis, beta concerns, group rotation and detailed analysis of risk as it relates to entry and exit points in reasonably liquid stocks.
Axxel Knutson, President
axxel@blast.net
www.TradingWeapon.com is a premium investor service -
VTAR [Volume Trade Analysis Research]
197 Mountainview Road, Warren, NJ 07059-8038
Telephone: 908-647-5750; FAX 708-585-6185.
AXXel Knutson is a registered Principal of and securities are offered through
First Allied Securities, Inc. Member
NASD/SIPC"
Axxel is guest co-host at JAGfn's Internet television every four weeks or so-tune in at www.JAGfn.com. [currently re-organizing]. [He is a regular commentator for the BBC "World Service" and you may hear AXXel's commentaries via short wave on the various BBC bands including the BBC "World Service" and BBC 5's "Wake Up to Money." He is guest commentator for Radio Scotland out of Glasgow. These reports may be available at www.multex.com and www.ibes.com.
AXXel was on AOL's MarkeTalk every day for two years on AOL. The program has shifted to www.sageonline.com and Axxel is on every Tuesday at noon. Transcripts are available via SageOnline. You can ask specific questions on line and AXXel will attempt an answer to your stock and investment questions. Every Tuesday MultexInvestor's "MarketBuzz" go to:
http://www.multexinvestor.com/GoTo.asp?nss=www&target=/liveevents/home/home which has replaced America Online's "MarketTalk" that I was on for over two years. For full transcripts of these sessions, go to the transcripts tab and look for AXXel's name in the "expert name" section of the form.
Bloomberg: Help, "Axxel" - then # 7, then # 2 for recommendations transmitted to Bloomberg. Not all recommendations are transmitted to Bloomberg. Market Commentaries on the BBC "World Service, www.bbc.co.uk, " Radio Scotland, Bloomberg Radio and Television, www.multex.com, www.allstocks.com, www.afterhourtrades.com, www.rookiedaytrader.com, www.marketdigestonline.com, www.ibchannel.com, www.kiplingerforecasts.com, www.redherring.com, www.tradingideas.com, www.investortoinvestor.com, www.investorlinks.com, www.prophetfinance.com, www.TradingWeapon.com, Additional message boards: www.siliconinvesor.com, [search "Axxel] www.ragingbull.com [search "Axxel], Tampa Bay Television, Channel 9, South America: www.brujula.net, www.netcognizance.com, www.stock-talk.com, and others.
Email: axxel@blast.net or tradingweapon@aol.com
If you want me to handle your account...
In response to inquiries relative to opening securities accounts handled directly by AXXel Knutson, here is the deal: Accounts are handled directly by Knutson [TradingWeapon.com is the business name for AXXel Knutson, who is a Registered Principal of an independently owned office of Supervisory Jurisdiction [OSJ] with First Allied Securities, Inc. TradingWeapon.com offers all of its securities business through First Allied Securities, Inc., a member of the NASD/SIPC. Bear Stearns Securities Corp. is the clearing agent for First Allied. There are no additional investment management fees and there is no sharing of profits or losses. Client-selected stocks may not enter the account unless approved by AXXel and this is not a likely occurrence. AXXel hates your stocks. The minimum account accepted is $100,000. Sob stories are listened to for amounts under $100k but rarely accepted unless AXXel is in the mood. These accounts tend to be trading accounts so don't even ask if you can't stand the activity and at times total inactivity and cash. AXXel very rarely trades in the same stocks as clients or those written about in his newsletters or spoken about in media appearances with the exception of stock index options and mutual fund management companies. AXXel will disclose positions personally held in any such stocks in newsletters when published. First Allied Securities, its brokers and its officers may take and have positions although they receive no advance notice of new recommendations or changes in opinion. The opinions expressed within are those of AXXel Knutson and may not be shared by First Allied Securities, Inc. its management or its brokers. Those interested in additional information on any stocks discussed within may call at 908-647-5750 or email AXXel at axxel@blast.net. We do not deal in BB stocks [with the exception of some ADR's]. Refreshing, isn't it?
Mr. Knutson is registered in the following states and additional states may be added upon a client relationship: AL, CA, CT, Fl, GA, HI, OH, KS, LA, MD, ME, MI, MO, NC, NH, NJ, NV, NY, OH, PA, PR, TN, TX, VA, WA, WI.
AXXel Knutson's VTAR Research at www.TradingWeapon.com. You may email AXXel at axxel@blast.net or you may not; it's up to you after all.
Stock charts provided through the good offices of www.clearstation.com. Our research can also be found soon at WWW.Multex.com and on www.ibes.com on a pay-per-report basis.
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