SWITCH FABRICS ON THE BACKPLANE

Battle between switch fabrics and other point-to-point interconnects brewing.

Natick, Massachusetts - A new report by Venture Development Corporation (VDC), entitled "Switch Fabric Architectures," suggests that, if there is to be a battle between competing switch fabrics and other point-to-point technologies, board-to-board applications will comprise its primary theater.

IDENTIFIED NEW TECHNOLOGIES

VDC identified several "high profile" technologies that constitute switch fabrics or point-to-point communication means. Of these, only Switched Fibre Channel is currently on the market. The remaining technologies include:

- 3GIO,
- GigaBridge,
- HyperTransport,
- InfiniBand,
- Packet Switching Backplanes (aka PICMG 2.16, PSB or cPSB), including MXP and HXP extensions,
- RapidIO (serial and parallel), and
- StarFabric.

These were selected because they are either receiving prominent press coverage, or are the subject of an existing or proposed industry standard.

Of these, the primary target application spaces for 3GIO, GigaBridge, Packet Switching Backplanes, RapidIO and StarFabric all include board-to-board applications. In addition, both HyperTransport and InfiniBand may find secondary application on the backplane.

OUTLOOK

Unlike chip-to-chip technologies, which may be "forced upon" users by chip manufacturers, these board-to-board technologies will only be adopted if they have sufficient perceived value (3GIO is an exception because of its chip-to-chip application and Intel's "muscle" in desktop space). As such, any of these may prove to be "the winner." All are primarily aimed at the telecom/datacom vertical market, and all, with the exception of Serial RapidIO and 3GIO, are expected to follow a similar time frame, with

-Early adopters appearing in mid-to-late 2002, and

-Buildout starting around the third quarter of 2003.

Serial RapidIO is a bit behind this schedule, with early adopters expected to appear in the fourth quarter of 2003 and a buildout toward the latter part of 2004.

StarFabric and Packet Switching Backplanes (including MXP/HXP) are particularly targeted toward CompactPCI applications. RapidIO and GigaBridge, which are also compatible with CompactPCI, may be more easily implemented in PCI than either of the other two technologies.

We believe that, by the end of year 2006, these technologies, in the aggregate, will be implemented in approximately 30% of new CompactPCI passive backplane systems. From the standpoint of a merchant computer board vendor, the number of such systems may be approximated by multiplying the projected single board computer unit sales by a factor of 0.8 (to allow for systems having split backplanes).

We expect implementation in PCI systems to be substantially less; year 2006 may see adoption of one of these backplane solution technologies in 10% of passive backplane systems.

Applicability of these technologies to VME is unclear, as no bridges have been announced as yet. GigaBridge is touted as having an implementation capability for VME through mezzanine cards, but we have not included this in our projections.

We expect 3GIO to dominate the active backplane or motherboard because of its forthcoming integration into advanced Intel microprocessors. Our projection for active backplane systems is based upon projected usage of systems employing these microprocessors in embedded applications. However, the time frame for implementation of 3GIO, and thus its penetration, is still uncertain.

Inasmuch as all of these are emerging technologies with little or no current market base, we believe that it is far too early to project which, if any, will dominate in the board-to-board application space. And, since all are targeted primarily at the telecom/datacom vertical market, which is slow at present, adoption may be slowed.

Based on current data, VDC's projection for the adoption of these technologies into systems intended for embedded and real-time applications and assembled from merchant computer boards is presented in Exhibit 1.

EXHIBIT 1
Projected Number of Systems Sold which Employ a High Profile Backplane Solution,
Assembled from Merchant Computer Boards

To view the entire press release including charts go to:

www.vdc-corp.com/embedded/press/02/pr02-10.html

However, data gleaned from an on-line survey of users of merchant computer boards (End Users, OEMs, Systems Integrators and Value Added Resellers) indicates that a substantial marketing and educational effort will be required in order to achieve these penetrations. Over fifty percent of user respondents indicated that they were not familiar with any of these technologies, although roughly sixty-seven percent indicated that they would probably adopt one or more of these at some time in the future.

VDC is presently conducting an additional on-line survey of board users. To participate go to:

www.vdc-corp.com/boardapps3

CONCLUSIONS

VDC is confident that switch fabrics and other point-to-point communication technologies will eventually comprise a major change in embedded computing. However, we believe that adoption among users could be accelerated through an increased understanding of potential benefits. To this end, we feel that a top-level educational process, aimed not at particular technologies but at the concept in general, would be beneficial.

VDC's SWITCH FABRICS REPORT

The report, "Switch Fabric Architectures," is a multiclient study designed to provide subscribers with relevant and up-to-date market intelligence to support strategic marketing and product planning decisions. This report includes:

- A technical overview of switch fabrics and point-to-point communications in general;

- Detailed overviews and comparisons of the following technologies:

--- 3GIO,
--- GigaBridge,
--- HyperTransport,
--- InfiniBand,
--- MXP/HXP,
--- Packet Switching Backplanes (PICMG 2.16),
--- RapidIO,
--- StarFabric, and
--- Switched Fibre Channel;

- Capsule descriptions of fifty other lower-profile technologies;

- User data, timelines and adoption projections;

- Profiles and capsule descriptions of technology participants;

- Recommendations for vendors of merchant computer boards.

For further information regarding the "Switch Fabric Architectures" contact:

Eric Gulliksen, Project Manager -
ericg@vdc-corp.com
or
Marc Regberg, Senior Vice President -
msr@vdc-corp.com

Venture Development Corporation
One Apple Hill Drive, Box 8190, Natick, MA 01760
Tel: 508-653-9000 Fax: 508-653-9836 Web: http://www.vdc-corp.com