LOW-K DIELECTRICS MARKET STALLS TEMPORARILY

The low-k dielectrics market may be slow getting out of the starting gate, according to a recently completed study by Kline & Company, but the long-term potential for this technology sector remains strong.

LITTLE FALLS, NJ, April 3, 2002 ¡V The low-k dielectrics market may be slow getting out of the starting gate, according to a recently completed study by Kline & Company, but the long-term potential for this technology sector remains strong.

The market for low-k dielectrics¡Xmaterials exhibiting a low dielectric constant that are needed for leading-edge semiconductor fabrication¡Xis projected to expand from only about $16 million this year to nearly $400 million by 2006. ¡§The real ramp-up should occur in 2003 and 2004, when production at 100-nm design rules start coming to commercialization,¡¨ says John Davis, business manager at Kline & Company, a leading international business consulting firm based in Little Falls, NJ. The market will rise by two to four times the previous year¡¦s level in each of these two years, according to Davis.

These projections are based on findings from Kline¡¦s syndicated analysis titled DIELECTRIC MATERIALS IN SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES TO THE SUB-0.10-MICRON RULE. This publication is an update to a similar study that Kline published in early 2000. At that time, the dielectrics market was expected to start accelerating significantly in 2001/2002. The two-year delay is due to a number of factors, but chief among these are:

ƒ{   Fabricators delayed implementation out of fear that low-k dielectrics were unreliable and were unlikely to be fabricated at high yield. They worked around the problem by instead redesigning circuits to minimize resistance-capacitance (RC) delay, by extending fluorinated silicate glass (FSG) technology into the 130-nm design node, by introducing trimethylsilane for the 130-nm node, and by emphasizing copper over novel dielectrics as the integration route of choice.

ƒ{   The economic recession intervened to slow down production. In leading-edge technologies that require a solution to RC delay, however, the recession is of relatively minor significance.

ƒ{   Through the main organ for technological planning, the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS), the industry essentially agreed to the delay, thereby recognizing what had been obvious for some time.

Technical developments

Some of the more noteworthy technical developments in the low-k market that are cited in the Kline report include the following:

Spin-on stop-etch materials. Companies selling spin-on precursors recognize the need to include a stop-etch material to complement the interlevel dielectrics (ILD) that they are developing. Several companies are working on this problem, and all are suggesting a silico-organic material for this application. Dow Chemical, Dow Corning, Honeywell, and Shipley have all said that they have such products under development.

Porosity. Dow Chemical, which has established a commercial beachhead with a dense version of SiLK polyphenylene, has developed a porous version for the 100-nm and lower design rules. Dow Corning, Honeywell, and nearly every other developer of spin-on precursors are also developing porous dielectrics and expect compete with Dow at this design rule.

CVD processes extended. Equipment vendors such as Applied Materials and Novellus have extended the horizon for CVD processes with technology that results in more highly strained lattices in oxide films. CVD technology will now compete at the 100-nm level, and probably the 70-nm level as well. Trikon, developer of the Flowfill process, which deposits film in a CVD chamber as a liquid, is rumored to have reached the 2.2 level in its latest process design.

Established in 1959, Kline & Company, Inc. is a leading business consulting firm serving the electronics, specialty chemical, and materials industries worldwide. DIELECTRIC MATERIALS IN SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES TO THE SUB-0.10-MICRON RULE is the latest in a series focusing on dielectric materials. For information on how to subscribe to any of Kline¡¦s studies in the electronic chemicals and materials industry, or to inquire about how Kline can assist you in customized consulting engagements, contact John Davis at Kline & Company, Inc., 150 Clove Road, Little Falls, NJ 07424; at (973) 435-3431; or via e-mail at John_Davis@klinegroup.com.