Special Report: Turkey faces major choices if the US attacks Iraq

The prospect of an attack on Iraq has raised serious questions regarding likely Turkish reactions. A new study by Civilitas Research, a political risk consultancy, shows that Ankara will be faced with serious choices in the coming months and may well be dragged into a long running conflict to prevent the formation of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq.

Nicosia, Cyprus -- A new study prepared by Civilitas Research shows that Turkey will face significant challenges, and will have to make some serious choices, regarding its relationship with the United States and the European Union if Washington goes ahead and launches an attack on Iraq.

The thirty four page report, 'Turkey and an Iraq Conflict: Responses and Implications', finds that although the Turkish government is strongly opposed to an attack on Iraq it will not actively oppose any action by Washington, nor will it prevent the United States from using military facilities in Turkey, such as the important Incirlik airbase.

However, Turkey is unlikely to be simply a spectator in any conflict. Fears that the Kurds of northern Iraq will use a US invasion as a chance to declare independence will almost certainly push Turkey into staging its own large scale military intervention to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state in the region.

While the decision to intervene in Iraq is unlikely to face much opposition in the short term, in the medium term Turkey will be faced with severe problems if it decides to stay in northern Iraq following the formation of a new government in Baghdad. Apart from facing stiff resistance by the Kurdish parties in the region, thus drawing Turkey into what could well be a prolonged and potentially brutal war, Ankara would also need to consider the damage done to its regional relationships by staying in Iraq. A prolonged occupation of Iraq could have severe consequences on Turkey's relations with the European Union.

An invasion would also have serious internal consequences. The Turkish economy is slowly emerging from the deepest recession since 1945 and a military occupation in Iraq could force another downturn in the economy. In terms of the level of support needed, recent figures produced by several sources indicate that Washington would need to provide at least US$7 billion annually to ensure Turkish economic security.

As Dr James Ker-Lindsay, the Executive Director of the Civilitas Research, and lead author of the report, notes, 'the Turkish Government will need to think long and hard about their objectives if they do decide to go into Iraq. If it pulls out of Iraq, Ankara may have to accept that it will be powerless to prevent the formation of a Kurdish homeland in the future. However, if Turkey chooses to stay put in the region at the end of hostilities it will need enormous political, economic and military support from the United States. The question that needs to be asked is whether Washington will be prepared to shoulder this burden.'

The full report can be downloaded for free from the Civilitas Research website:

www.civilitasresearch.com

Notes for Editors

Based in Nicosia, Cyprus, Civilitas Research is an independent strategic research and consulting firm specializing on South East Europe - the Balkans, Greece, Cyprus and Turkey. The company offers political risk analysis, EU consulting, socio-political research and industry intelligence services.

For further information please contact Civilitas Research at the following number:
+ 357 22 942 555

Or by e-mail at:
press@civilitasresearch.com