HOW NEVADA LEGISLATOR EKED OUT 36-VOTE UPSET WIN

SAN JOSE, NOV.25--Nevada Assemblyman Don Gustavson, R-Sun Valley, overcame party registration, a 2-1 spending handicap and almost all of the smart money" endorsers to beat Debbie Smith, D-Sparks by 36 votes. Last week's recount did not change the result. Case study: http://www.extensiblemarketing.com/election_upset/casestudy.html

Contact: Steve High, 408-891-1944 (cell phone), steve@extensiblemarketing.com

For Immediate Release

HOW NEVADA LEGISLATOR EKED OUT 36-VOTE WIN

SAN JOSE, NOV.25--Nevada Assemblyman Don Gustavsons 36-vote victory over a another incumbent still stands after a recount completed last week. Gustavson now returns to Carson City to serve his fourth term in a new district drawn with the express intention of sending the strongly conservative legislator to the showers.

Gustavson, R-Sun Valley, overcame party registration, a 2-1 spending handicap and almost all of the smart money" endorsers to beat Debbie Smith, D-Sparks. Gustavsons margin came from Sun Valley, where he ran ahead of party registration enough to overcome a 211-vote margin earned by Smith in the other 69% of the district.

Steve High, president of Extensible Marketing in San Jose, California, developed Gustavsons Sun Valley strategy. Without it, High says, Gustavson would have come close but probably not gotten over 50%.

   Sun
Valley   %   Non-Sun
Valley %   AD 30   Party
Ratio*
Gustavson   1,525   54.4%   3,107   48.4%   4,632   45.6%
Smith   1,278   45.6%   3,318   51.6%   4,596   54.4%
   2,803   100.0%   6,425   100.0%   9,228
   100.0%
*Ratio of likely GOP voters to likely Dem. voters.

Smith enjoyed a nine-point edge in party registration and a greater than 2-1 spending advantage. According to Nov 1. reports, Smith raised $106 thousand compared to Gustavsons $45 thousand.

Most of the endorsements went to Smith, including Nevada teachers, police, firefighters, the AFL-CIO, the Chamber of Commerce, the

Reno Gazette-Journal and even the Deputy Sheriffs Association, of which Gustavsons daughter is a dues-paying member, and Gustavsons own Teamsters local, to which belonged for more than 25 years.

To top it off, a quirk in Nevada election laws meant that only Smith, of the two incumbents, was permitted to use the word re-elect" on campaign signs and mailers. Writing in the Las Vegas Business Press, columnist Dennis Myers summed it up: Everyone in both parties expected Smith to trounce Gustavson. He won."

   Party
Reg.   Primary
Vote   Primary
Turnout   $ Raised   Final
Vote   Endorsers
Smith   8,158   1,528   18.7%   $106,531   4,627   AFL-CIO, Chamber of Commerce, Reno Gazette-Citizen, Deputy Sheriffs Assn.
Gustavson   6,612   1,466   22.2%   $45,899   4,595   Nevada State Rifle & Pistol Assn. Coalition for the Protection of Marriage, Nevada Concerned Citizens
.

Gustavson concentrated his final weeks of door-to-door work in Sun Valley-an effort supported by targeted direct-mail and automated telephone calls. As a result, Gustavson carried Democratic neighborhoods 54%-46%. Had Smith run even with party registration, the outcome would have been 54%-46% in the other direction.

Gustavson lost the non-Sun Valley portion of the district-almost 70% of the total-by 211 voters. But he won Sun Valley by 247 votes, producing his 36 vote margin.

   Early Voting   Polling Place   Absentee
Gustavson   404   3793   430
Smith   454   3847   303
*Preliminary numbers. Do not exactly equal final vote totals

Nevada Republicans made a special effort to get Republicans to vote absentee, with mailings, literature distribution and advertising. Since most of the absentee ballot applications received came from Republicans, Gustavson won the absentees by a wide margin, while losing in both the early voting and at the polling places.

For more information and to view the direct-mail campaign, please visit http://www.extensiblemarketing.com/election_upset/casestudy.html.

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