Nasdaq Continues to Underperform-AXXel Comments on Each One 3/27/02 Update

AXXel Knutson of TradingWeapon.com continues to warn investors to get off their coccaine-like addiction to high tech stocks and develop a less myopic view of the market. In this newsletter, AXXel comments about every stock in the Nasdaq 100 and outlines the risks, and in some cases, the reward of each stock. Here is his update, the March 27, 2002 report

March 27, 2002 [-updating the letter of 2/11/02]

AXXel's VTAR Newsletter-
This is an update of the 2.11.2002 Newsletter
NAZ 100 - Not 4 Me, Not 4 U

Using, AXXel Knutson's
VTAR

["Volume Trade Analysis Research"]
"Manage the risk...the profits will take care of themselves"

• this business, being right is not as important as making money...consistently, and one of primary tenets of the quest is the avoidance of the 'obvious risk'"

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• 1999-2002 all rights reserved, AXXel Knutson

   UPDATE 3.27.02: Well, here we are nearly seven weeks later and the NAS 100 is at 1439.55 vs. 1452.17 a loss of nearly 1% and the NAZ Composite which was at 1,772.15 is at 1817.06, hardly a sterling performance [plus 2%] particularly vs. our recommended index, the S & P 400 Mid Cap 400 which closed at 533.15. This index was at 495.56 an increase of 7-½%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, we only have 30 crummy stocks from which to choose, outperformed the NAS Comp and the NAS 100, up 721 points at 10,401 for the period, an increase of 7.4%. It didn't outperform our favorite S & P 400, but it came close, didn't it?

THIS IS A MEANINGFUL DIVERGENCE:

Now you may not think this is a meaningful divergence, but if you assume that these two indices are now not quite parallel lines, the divergence, if it continues as we think it shall, will be very meaningful 18 months out, 2 years out, 5 years out and that is the time frame that we think such an index will outperform the Nasdaq Composite [we mistyped "compost"] and perhaps that is an accurate description of the index. We shall see. We think this is VERY IMPORTANT information for you. We think you should plug it into your thinking. We have no pity for you if you ignore this development that we have been hounding you about for over two years. Here is the chart FYI:
                                                                                            

Blah Nasdaq 100: 1452.17 on 2.11 and now a pathetic 1439.55 - Chart courtesy of Clearstation.com [FYI: Nasdaq Composite 1772.15 and now 1817.06][DJ-30=9680.32 ON 2.11 & now 10,401]...

• now the "non-blah" S & P Mid-Cap 400 [how about a hand for this index?]

S & P Mid-Cap 400
S & P Mid-Cap 400 = 495.56 on 2.11 & now 533.15]
Chart courtesy of Clearstation.com

And now the stocks of the NAZ 100...I hate most of these stocks, but I know you have this cocaine -like addiction to these god-awful names, so to wean you off the milk of these pathetic companies, here is my opinion...feel free to go to the movies or hop on a bus to see where it finally ends up]. The government will likely give us some Intaxication: Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts until you
realize it was your money to start with.

Here is the first pathetic name...

ABGX Abgenix, Inc.    $ 23.12 not too badly mangled after 9/11 and actually went to new reaction highs to $38...but that was it and the stock just double bottomed at the sub $22 level. Traders could buy here for a move to $30, but this is high risk, moderate reward. But, hey, it's your money. Spotty revenues, losses-what else is new for a company like this? Abgenix, Inc. develops and intends to commercialize antibody therapeutic products for the treatment of a variety of disease conditions. [So they say]. Little debt. UPDATE 3.27.02: $ 19.12 and in line with most stocks in the index. Avoid.

...and now another pathetic name...but you get the idea [you don't?]
   
                 ADCT ADC Telecommunications, Inc. $ 3.93 not really damaged by 9/11 but the damage was done already. Junky move to nearly six was it and now attempting a bottom. "Attempt" is the operative word. Avoid. ADCT offers network equipment, software & integration services for broadband, multi-service networks that deliver Internet/data, video & voice communications over telephone, cable TV, Internet, broadcast, wireless and enterprise networks. For the FY ended 10/31/01, net sales fell 27% to
$2.4B. Net loss totaled $1.29B vs. an income of $868.1M. Little obvious debt. UPDATE 3.27.02: $3.82 probably some minor bottom...we don't care.

...hey it's free...it's not like I'm asking you to cough up some real bucks.
                                                                
                 ADLAC Adelphia Communications Corporation $ 23 + one could make a case for a triple bottom here...an initial break of $20 post 9/11, another stab at a break in November and a nice run to $32 plus only to see us back at current numbers. ADLAC owns, operates, and manages cable TV systems & other related telecommunications businesses. Adelphia operations consist primarily of selling video programming and does a crummy job of it. Event risk and the events are likely negative. Excessive risk. UPDATE 3.27.02: $ 20.50 a likely short-term bottom at sub $20 in mid Feb and another just here. Traders can look for the mid 20's.

Maybe your Aunt Edna will let you buy this one...

                 ADBE Adobe Systems Incorporated $ 35.80. Buy. This is a positive exception in the techs. Nice crash in September and we are still not back to pre-Sept numbers. Therein lies some safety. We like the fact that earnings are still pretty solid in the face of declining revs and their labor content numbers are attractive to our VTAR © 1992-2002 analysis. UPDATE 3.27.02: $38.40 no change-still constructive.

   
                 ALTR Altera Corporation $ 23.45 murdered in the 9-11 hit and has barely recovered. Spotty, spotty spotty performance in a crummy group. It does have cash so we can suggest that the downward spike in September will likely hold and the minor break of $20 in December was largely tax-selling idiotic who after their likely purchase at $65 in August of 2000, finally thought "now" was the time to panic and sell. Traders could buy, but you are buying knowing that event risk is likely negative. UPDATE 3.27.02: $21.64 no change but a slight improvement in the VTAR numbers. Still, rather neutral positive only.

                 AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. $ 12.52 reported nice numbers [well, nice for Amazon, that is] and the stock does appear bound for the mid 20's according to VTAR numbers. That's OK with us and you've taken bigger risks haven't YOU? Here is the news from Dow Jones: Jan 22, 2002- "Amazon.com Inc. turned a profit for the first time in the fourth on sales that topped the billion dollar mark, another first for the nearly seven-year-old Internet retailing giant. Amazon on Tuesday reported net income of $5.1 million, or a penny a share, compared with a net loss of $545.1 million, or $1.53 a share, a year earlier. Sales rose 15% to $1.12 billion from $972 million." There's more...blah, blah, blah. UPDATE 3.27.02: $14.23 no change, positive, but not low risk.

   AMGN Amgen Inc. $ 57.90. We don't have to have an opinion on every issue
and AMGN just bores us to death-I would rather watch two fleas mating. UPDATE 3.27.02: $61.14 no change, still bored to death. My dear spouse wants me to do sit ups. I refused. She didn't give up; she taped the remote control between my toes.
      
   ADRX Andrx Group $ 49 techies are heading for the hills on this issue, but the break of $50 from the shelf of $50 is pretty severe in its own right-also there was some panic volume [we like that]. Andrx Corporation formulates and commercializes controlled-release
oral pharmaceuticals using the Company's proprietary drug delivery technologies. For the 9 months ended 9/30/01, revenues rose 47% to $552.4M. Net income applicable to Andrx Group rose 40% to $68.6M. Revenues reflect sales of the Company's distribution of the bioequivalent version of Ventolin. Too newsy for us relative the FDA, but recent crash patterns push us to the attractive side. UPDATE 3.27.02: $39.10 we are not there yet. We would like to see some follow-through negative volume...so we will wait until we do.

   APOL Apollo Group, Inc. $ 46.95. We rate as positive. Apollo Group is a provider of higher education programs for working adults. APOL offers its services at 58 campuses and 102 learning centers. For the 3 months ended 11/30/01, revenues rose 29% to $228.2M. Net income rose 30% to $31.7M. UPDATE 3.27.02: $51.85 and still very positive. Buy. Here is the quarter:
Apollo Group Inc. - Phoenix 2nd Quar Feb. 28:
                              2002         2001
Revenue                   $222,618,000 $162,980,000
Net income                28,093,000     16,349,000
Apollo Group Inc. (APOL) consists of Apollo Education Group and University of Phoenix Online (UOPX). Apollo Education Group had second quarter earnings of $26.6 million, or 23 cents a share, up from $15.7 million, or 14 cents a share, a year ago. University of Phoenix Online had earnings of $1.5 million, or 14 cents a share, up from $654,000, or 6 cents a share, a year ago.

Chart courtesy of Clearstation.com
   AAPL Apple Computer, Inc. $ 24.03. We don't think you will get rich with this box manufacturer, but we don't think you will go to the poorhouse either. It is the only box mfr with any real creativity. Earnings came in on target and AAPL is expecting an increase to $1.5 bil in revs for the 2nd quarter. Well, a quarter will also get you a hole in a donut. The stock is "OK" but we do not get involved with stocks that are OK. Oklahoma is OK. UPDATE 3.27.02: $23.50 acting OK, but just OK is still not good enuf. [and that is how we spell "enuf." And that should be enough 4 U].
                                                                
   AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. $ 43.08 the stock is back to the pre Sept 11 numbers [almost] but that is about it. Neutral and we don't like "neutral." It's not worth your hard-earned cash. UPDATE 3.27.02: $51.74 a nice step correction. Now neutral positive and a trading buy on a break of $50.
                                                                
   AMCC Applied Micro Circuits Corporation $ 9.80 horror story of horror stories, this stock did manage to rally in Oct and Nov-but here we are sub ten again. Still, sub ten is usually a place to acquire for trades so go ahead if YOU want. We will not. UPDATE 3.27.02: $7.79 no panic selling yet but some nice beginnings of that panic. Traders could buy the margin selling should the stock crack $5.

   ATML Atmel Corporation $ 7.13 another memory chip co in the skids...it has a base of sorts. So, at current numbers we give it a slight positive rating...but we have other fish to fry. UPDATE 3.27.02: $9.92 and a nice move for sure. Traders may now buy the break of nine.

   BEAS BEA Systems, Inc. $ 16.25 this is the base and traders may enter here. The key would be to dribble to the $22 level and then punch...if it punches right away, get rid of it. UPDATE 3.27.02: $13.56 real lack of potential. Avoid.
                                                                
   BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. $ 33.72 overpriced stuff we can all do without-gold-plated toilet plungers, refrig magnets, scales so slippery you can kill yourself on, etc. but someone is buying this junk. Revenues are surely there, earnings as well but margins are shrinking...I mean after three gold-plated toilet plungers per household the price REALLY has to be something to get me to buy the fourth. The real buy was when the market gave us its buy signal on September 20th...then BBBY was sub $20...but at current numbers it is a yawn. UPDATE 3.27.02: $32.97 enuf of a base for a move so now neutral positive.

   BGEN Biogen, Inc. $ 53.68 pretty boring, but it has been pretty boring since April Fool's Day of 2000. We see nothing to change that. Maybe April Fool's Day 2003.... check back. UPDATE 3.27.02: $49.93 not even close. Negative.

   BMET Biomet, Inc. $ 32.37 looks as if it could break out toward $40, but somehow we think you should avoid. UPDATE 3.27.02: $26.52 a very worthwhile "avoid" for sure. Traders could buy another severe break sub $25.

   BRCM Broadcom Corporation $ 39.20 there was no real damage to this star performer of the dot. Com blast...but it is stuck in a range with this being near the bottom. UPDATE 3.27.02: $35.13 it keeps acting like a bottom...but our guess it isn't. Avoid and look for a break into the twenties and below $25. We are not expecting the teens.

   BRCD Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. $ 32.63 the benefit of the doubt short-term...than gives us an objective of $38 ½. Not worth it. UPDATE 3.27.02: $25.73 and it was not worth it. No change...negative.

   CDWC CDW Computer Centers, Inc $ 53.87 stuck in a trading range and it is likely to be resolved to the upside...but not just yet. Neutral/Positive only. UPDATE 3.27.02: $48.58 now only neutral.

   CEPH Cephalon, Inc. $ 57.68 a biopharmaceutical company that develops and markets products to treat neurological and sleep disorders, cancer and pain. Revs are there but that was the news for the market to throw it over the side at $77...now we have a minor rally in place...only neutral. UPDATE 3.27.02: $64.36 no change.

   CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. $ 11.25 low enuf if you have any feel for the fundamentals...we don't...a rally to about 13 ½. Not 4 us. UPDATE 3.27.02: $11.99 blah rally. Avoid.

   CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. $ 33.77 not damaged by 9/11 and the rally took the stock up by 100%...not bad. But then the "hear-attack" mode and we are back in the base. If you were nimble, you made money...if not...well, you know. Avoid the temptation to trade this name. UPDATE 3.27.02: $31.60 it looks like a base...it smells like a base. Is it a base? No. Avoid. [But then we could be wrong, but that is doubtful, isn't it?]. But I doubt that.

   CHIR Chiron Corporation $ 41.19 back in the base, but we still don't care. There is not enuf of a break to motivate us. I like "enuf." UPDATE 3.27.02: $45.94 no change.

   CIEN CIENA Corporation $ 9.46 single digit objective reached...we still don't want it. CIEN manufactures and sells open architecture, DWDM systems for fiberoptic communications networks, optical networking solutions and access systems Not exactly high demand products at the moment. UPDATE 3.27.02: $8.23 no change, but if there was a high volume break of $5.00, we would look at it.

   CTAS Cintas Corporation $ 49.71 now here is a company we can understand. Everything looks on stream, but we give it only a positive rating. Again, we can do better. Cintas Corporation designs, manufactures, and implements corporate identity uniform programs which it rents or sells to customers throughout the U.S. and Canada. For the 6 months ended 11/30/01, total revenues increased 6% to $1.12B. Net income increased 7% to $114.5M. Revenues reflect higher rental income due to growth in customers base. Earnings also reflect improved gross profit margins, lower interest rates and a
reduction in long-term debt. UPDATE 3.27.02: $48.65 now only neutral.

   CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. $ 16.76 not murdered in the 9/11 crunch but a decent enuf rally to $21...but that was it and to go along with Chambers view of the future is really to believe in fairies, but that's San Jose for ya. UPDATE 3.27.02: $16.34 this would be the place to stage a rally...but we just don't care.

   CTXS Citrix Systems, Inc. $ 15.92 pull the plunger...appears not even warm. UPDATE 3.27.02: $17.40 no change.

   CMCSK Comcast Corporation $ 33.39 a rally beginning it appears and maybe there could be 7-8 points...is that enuf? No. UPDATE 3.27.02: $32.01 and it wasn't. A likely pathetic rally from here but we have no interest in the thirties.

   CPWR Compuware Corporation $ 12.63. The major collapse for this stock was in January, 2000...if you call $40 to $25 a collapse...since then we have seen the stock wallow around the sub eight level in late 2000 and sub ten for most of 2001. We are basing here and the selling that took place in September was very speculative indeed and VTAR suggests that this is a major "buy" signal. So, here we have it...a strong buy signal and a move $8 to $14. We suggest that the "strong buy" signal is still very much in force and suggest accumulation right here and up to the $14 level. We are still suggesting that labor costs are still out of line but with no debt, this Farmington, MI company will stick around. CPWR develops, markets and supports systems software products designed to improve productivity in application development, implementation & maintenance, & offers system analysis, design, programming, systems planning and consulting. For the 9 months ended 12/31/01, revenues fell 12% to $1.32B. Net income rose 25% to $90.7M. Revenues reflect reduced demand for professional services. Earnings benefited from reduced sales/marketing expense. UPDATE 3.27.02: $12.44 no change, but reduce to positive.

   CMVT Comverse Technology, Inc. $ 17.69 We are not there yet. We do not see the panic yet in the stock. If they won't panic sub $20...perhaps the number is ten. UPDATE 3.27.02: $13.21 we doubt that the number is ten at the moment...the crash from $17 was severe and the stock will likely dribble toward $16. Watch.

   CEFT Concord EFS, Inc. $ 27.54. Nice rally after 9/11 but we see nothing of importance going on at the moment. Market perform minus. UPDATE 3.27.02: $32.91 at the top of the trading range, but now accumulate sub $31.

   CNXT Conexant Systems, Inc. $ 12.26. How could you kill this stock on 9/11. It wasn't and here we have a bottom at the sub ten level and the move to $18 demonstrated that power. At $12.26 you have a second chance. UPDATE 3.27.02: $12.10 is trying to base...we rate only neutral.

   COST Costco Wholesale Corporation $ 44.08. The crash pattern of May, 2000 has been consolidated by additional selling in late 2000 and in the September crash which was very speculative selling indeed we have an established "Strong Buy" signal as of 9/20.01 and that is still very much in force. Put it in the portfolio. UPDATE 3.27.02: $40.07 this should have held. We will go to neutral.

   CYTC CYTYC Corporation $ 20.61. Another idiotic name that no one with any upbringing can pronounce sober...we very much like the second crunch sub $20 and classify CYTYC a buy. CYTYC Corporation designs, develops, manufactures and markets a sample preparation system for medical diagnostic applications. For the FY ended 12/31/01, net sales rose 56% to $221M. Net income fell 67% to $12.6M. Revenues reflect increased sales of the Company's ThinPrep Pap Test for cervical cancer screening in the United States. Earnings were offset by a $56M charge for in-process R&D associated with the Pro-Duct
acquisition. UPDATE 3.27.02: $26.25 that buy worked and we suggest an average up.

DELL Dell Computer Corporation $ 26.25. Negative. UPDATE 3.27.02: $25.72 no change.

   EBAY eBay Inc. $ 58.61. High end of the trading range is $70...that should tell you the story. UPDATE 3.27.02: $56.99 no change.

   DISH EchoStar Communications Corporation $ 25.63. Can this company make money? The revenues are surely there but the labor costs appear out to lunch. Fix that and maybe we will revisit. UPDATE 3.27.02: $28.46 we will go to positive.
                                                                
   ERTS Electronic Arts Inc. $ 54.13. Games and new platforms for them to play on. Still, a very yucky performance in the past with earnings. Short-term it's "OK" and the selling is a little overdone at the $50 level...we will not play, games or not. UPDATE 3.27.02: $58.06 and the selling was overdone and the move to $62 was useful. We now rate only neutral positive.


   ESRX Express Scripts, Inc. $ 50.05. Strong Buy. The crash pattern in September and the additional crash in October were both very speculative selling and has set the stock up for what we think will be a major advance. VTAR indicates a dribble toward the recent $60 high and then the possibility of a strong advance from there. That works for us and apparently this company is working as well with great labor content numbers and money pouring in relative to the increased total rev numbers. We like it. UPDATE 3.27.02: $56.20 average up. Working and working well with little speculation.

ESRX Chart is courtesy of Clearstation.com

   FISV Fiserv, Inc. $ 42.40. The September crash barely fazed FISV...and the base is at the $35 level...given an excuse it could finally break to the low 50's. Lower risk but only moderate reward. UPDATE 3.27.02: $45.73 it is breaking toward $50 and we now rate it positive.

   FLEX Flextronics International Ltd. $ 19.62. One could make a case for a triple bottom here...and it does look as if it can move...a little...and when that fails we will have to search for the real bottom and that looks like a break of ten. Obviously, we are not being suckered in for 5 pts on the upside for 15 in the reverse direction. UPDATE 3.27.02: $17.60 no change-

   GMST Gemstar-TV Guide International Inc. $ 18.11. Do not follow. UPDATE 3.27.02: $14.84 and glad we don't.

   GENZ Genzyme General $ 43.30. Very short-term a move to the low $50's but we still see the potential for some very serious selling later in the year. Play if you are quick. UPDATE 3.27.02: $44.93 we like the selling in place but we would like to see a break of $40 before we go positive. On watch list.

   GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. $ 33.44. The stock looks fine...but can it make any money? We will watch. UPDATE 3.27.02: $37.35 now positive. We like the base and the ease of movement.

   HGSI Human Genome Sciences, Inc. $ 25.39. Wonderful double top at the $110 level in Feb 2000 and nearly so in October of 2000. But where is the bottom? Since November of 2001 the stock has lost 20 points...there will be a likely recovery but we will not classify the break of $25 as a bottom. Tradable but not invest able. UPDATE 3.27.02: $22.26 blah and no interest in the twenties.

   ITWO i2 Technologies, Inc. $ 6.06. Too much buying, too much speculation that "this is the bottom." Where the real bottom is will yet be played out...very short term a move to $7.50 perhaps. Who needs that? UPDATE 3.27.02: $5.11 and w3e don't need it and there is still no panic. Where is the panic? Sub $4.00?

   ICOS Corporation $ 44.02. Why do companies like this sell at ANY price? Should it even be public? UPDATE 3.27.02: $45.18 no change.

   IDPH IDEC Pharmaceuticals Corporation $ 57.39. Hey, it's only 96 times earnings. A nice Friday...but it will take more than a good Friday to suck us into this company. UPDATE 3.27.02: $68.96 it did extend....we will give it that...but we are not with it and will continue to avoid.

   IMCL ImClone Systems Incorporated $ 16.26. Ugly, top to bottom and inside out and outside in...its address in NYC is 180 Varick Street...it would appear as if the WTC fell on it. If you are the type who likes jumping in front of freight trains [it can be a rush] then this is the stock for you. Here are the top officers: Robert Goldhammer, Chmn., Samuel Waksal, Pres./ CEO, Harlan Waksal, COO/Exec. VP, Daniel Lynch, CFO/ VP-Fin., John Landes, Sr. VP/Counsel/Secy. Stay away from these guys chocolate cream pies could be coming their way and it could get messy. UPDATE 3.27.02: $24.74 it had the rally. No change.
                                                            
   IMNX Immunex Corporation $ 28.72. Serious sellers at $29 but the stock has done enuf work since October to pull it off. Buy prior to the break out which could come soon. UPDATE 3.27.02: $30.83 average up. Moves easily.
                                                        
   IDTI Integrated Device Technology, Inc. $ 29.57. This stock has been taking the selling and taking it over and over again...but it looks like not very smart selling. The fundamentals are not here so it is puzzlement. UPDATE 3.27.02: $31.51 and now a buy.

   INTC Intel Corporation $ 32.52. The selling in September was speculative but the power is not here...it is not your father's INTC. UPDATE 3.27.02: $30.26 it bounces from here so traders may want the little ride. Not us...not just now...we like IDTI above.
                                                    
   INTU Intuit Inc. $ 37.12. Neutral and a market performer only. UPDATE 3.27.02: $37.99 no change.

   IVGN Invitrogen Corporation $ 54.59. Due for a bounce up but that's it. UPDATE 3.27.02: $34.12 and that was it. The price destruction is nearly over so we would buy the next clunk as it makes an attempt to break $30 which we think is unlikely.

   JDSU JDS Uniphase Corporation $ 6.60. What a wonderful stock to hate and so many opportunities to blow this out at $125+! We got our single digits and one would think that we would be satisfied and we would now suggest "Buy, Buy, Buy." Well, now we want to see some reverse stock splits. UPDATE 3.27.02: $5.58 a bounce from here is likely-those who enjoy the rush of jumping in front of freight trains may enjoy doing so here.
                                            
   JNPR Juniper Networks, Inc. $ 13.89. Ditto comment on JDSU except add 100 points to the top price...triple top at $225 plus August, September & October, '00. UPDATE 3.27.02: $11.82 ditto the comment above.

   KLAC KLA-Tencor Corporation $ 55.63. No opinion. UPDATE 3.27.02: $64.47. Neutral positive-traders could enter here but keep it tight.

   LLTC Linear Technology Corporation $ 39.39. Negative. We don't see the potential for a serious bottom. Very short-term traders might expect a $47 top...we will ignore given the risk. UPDATE 3.27.02: $43.70 and the top was just a fraction over $47. We will now go to buy for traders and look for a dribble toward $47 and a punch to the low 50's. But not without risk in the group...but you know that.

   ERICY LM Ericsson Telephone Company $ 4.29. $3.50 to six in the last run. We rate only market perform and that is not a buy. UPDATE 3.27.02: $4.20 I now use cell phones as ballast in my sailboat.

   MXIM Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. $ 51.73. No. UPDATE 3.27.02: $54.64 no change but traders enter here but keep it tight [the stops that is].

   MEDI MedImmune, Inc. $ 41.29. Positive UPDATE 3.27.02: $41.72 no change but it has to rally from here soon.
                                                                
   MERQ Mercury Interactive Corporation $ 37.65. Negative...still. UPDATE 3.27.02: $37.25 a change for the better and traders could enter.

   MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated $ 36.50. Slightly positive from here. UPDATE 3.27.02: $41.16 average up.

   MSFT Microsoft Corporation $ 60.65. Continues negative and our sell at 107 7/16 at Christmastime, 1999 is still intact. Avoid. Minor rally from here. UPDATE 3.27.02: $59.67 now neutral positive.
                                                
   MLNM Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. $ 18.82. Losses and more losses...someday perhaps and we do expect a rally but we are not playing just yet. UPDATE 3.27.02: $22.10 a buy on a break of $20.

   MOLX Molex Incorporated $ 28.90. We are looking for the teens after a minor rally here. UPDATE 3.27.02: $34.88 at the top of the trading range but a change now to neutral positive.

   NTAP Network Appliance, Inc. $ 15.80. We like the selling in September and the crash selling in January-we are reducing risk as we go along and we have seen single digits in the stock [sub $8 in September] but these rev numbers should not be demonstrating eps losses. Watch only. UPDATE 3.27.02: $19.84 you may accumulate under $20.

   NXTL Nextel Communications, Inc. $ 5.91. Aren't these stock losers? We are beginning to see the panic and that is a positive development- the reverse of what we saw in March of '00 at $80...so we are getting close. Years of losses and massive debt says this could be a hole in a donut. Forget it. UPDATE 3.27.02: $5.23 traders may accumulate sub $5.00.

If you need a telecommunication equipment company, take a look at Utstarcom [UTSI-24.75] UTStarcom, Inc. provides communications equipment for service providers that operate wireless and wire line networks in rapidly growing
communications markets. For the FY ended 12/31/01, net sales rose 70% to
$626.8M. Net income before accounting change totaled $57M, up from $28M.
Revenues reflect an increase in the sales volume of PAS and IP-based PAS
systems. Earnings also reflect an increase in gross margins.

   NVLS Novellus Systems, Inc. $ 38.89. Unlikely. Very unlikely. UPDATE 3.27.02: $52.00