LAEDC 2003-2004 FORECAST AND INDUSTRY OUTLOOK SAYS SOUTHLAND ECONOMY WILL DO BETTER THAN BAY AREA AND CENTRAL VALLEY

Best business prospects: aerospace/homeland security, international trade and motion picture/TV production. Worst: most retail, local governments, mainline airlines and their suppliers

(PRWEB) March 1, 2003 -- Los Angeles, CA - A war with Iraq will reduce economic growth in the first half of this year says a newly released "2003-2004 Economic Forecast and Industry Outlook" for California and the Los Angeles five-County area, which includes the national and international setting.

The semi-annual economic forecast and industry outlook was produced by Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC) and released at a special forum hosted by the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), at their headquarters.

The entire forecast can be downloaded at http://www.laedc.info/pdf/LAEF-2003-02.pdf

The conference focused on the "Economic Forecast, including a war scenario" and featured an economic panel on the impact of the state budget crisis on transportation.

LAEDC Chief Economist Jack Kyser told an audience of mostly business industry leaders, politicians and contractors recently (Feb. 13th), "California's economy is forecast to create 94,000 nonfarm jobs in 2003, while the jobless rate should inch up to 6.5 percent. In 2004, the state will add 250,500 jobs, while the unemployment rate slips down to 6.1 percent."

The five-county forecast (LA, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura) indicates that the Riverside-San Bernardino area will continue to show the strongest growth with a 3.0 percent increase in nonfarm employment. Orange County should post a 1.4 percent gain, followed by Los Angeles County at 1.0 percent and Ventura County at 0.9 percent. San Diego County will also make a good contribution in 2003, with a 2.1 percent increase in jobs.

"In terms of numerical growth in non-farm jobs this year, Los Angeles County will add 39,500 jobs, followed by Riverside-San Bernardino area with 32,100, Orange County with 19,400 and Ventura County with 2,600 new jobs," said Kyser. "San Diego County will chip in with 26,400 jobs during the year."

The forecast predicts that industries in the Southland with the best growth prospects this year will include: International trade ("A" rating), classic aerospace (A-), and motion picture/TV production (A-). Among other important industries, value retailing gets an A, while residential construction gets an A-. On the other hand, the large local tourism industry has already felt the chill from Iraq, and competition among hotels, airlines, etc. will be intense all year.

Following the forecast presentation Paul Hudson, Board Member of the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) moderated a discussion panel on the impact of the State budget crisis on transportation infrastructure investment.

"I'm deeply concerned about threat to transportation infrastructure investment caused by the increase in the state budget deficit, which is a double whammy," said LAEDC President Lee Harrington. "You have to remember that what's good for business is good for MTA and what's bad for business is bad for MTA. The agency relies on local business firms to employ their 1.2 million daily passengers and to generate sales taxes, a major source of MTA revenues."

Harrington says he is glad that MTA supports the region's many businesses, chambers, alliances and business associations because "local business leads the way to a strong economy by creating jobs, generating tax revenue and improving the quality of life.

These are also the three big reasons to continue funding critically needed infrastructure projects," he explained. "We must recognize that moving already-funded projects to the head of the list will quickly put people to work. This strategy is the fastest way to turn our economy around. It's important for State lawmakers to understand the impact of job creation, nurturing a positive business climate, and to keep funding critical infrastructure projects that have a great deal of local and federal dollars behind them."

Chief Economist Jack Kyser noted that construction generates tax revenue to fund the state's healthcare, education and more. "Contractors can collaborate with public agencies to help solve infrastructure needs of our communities," he said. "The industry can speak with a unified voice to legislators, sharing real-life examples about how infrastructure projects have created jobs and tax revenue."

The discussion panel pointed out that the costs of goods and services increase when infrastructure, especially transportation, is inadequate. "A responsible legislature cannot abandon our infrastructure system or ignore job growth," Kyser said. "The state's quality of life turns on their decisions. Not responding creates even more problems with congestion and the inability of business to be competitive."

The forecast also says the major risk to the national, state and regional economies is a long and drawn out war in Iraq, accompanied by episodes of international terrorism.

Details, charts and spreadsheets of the entire forecast can be found and downloaded at http://www.laedc.info/pdf/LAEF-2003-02.pdf)
For interviews, audio and high-resolution digital images, highlights of conference and regional forecast contact George McQuade or Aida Mayo, MAYO Communications (visit: www.MayoCommunications.com) at 818.340.5300 or 818.618.9229.