ACI Says "WORLD WAR III?"

Adversity Consultants believes we could be starting WWWIII with America bombing Iraq.

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ACI Says "WORLD WAR III?"

The Middle East is in a situation where the potential exists for the world, both geographically as well as politically to change to such an extent that what we see today as the normal social/political/economic structure will devolve leaving the current major powers in a position of being forced to attempt to salvage what is left of the world influence that they now have.

What is the root cause of the problem? No matter how you assess this Iraq/terrorism war situation, and we are talking about the Middle East, we have to start with Israel. I am not for or against Israel. I am a realist and accept the situation as it stands. Saying that let us look at that situation.

Israel cannot exist without US support. That support has allowed Israel to dominate its neighbors, confiscate lands for expansion, subjugate the political systems and societies of those people/countries that surround it. Right or wrong, it is a fact. I am not for or against it, I just understand facts.

If you again accept fact, consider this. In reality there are more Muslims than Christians. All of the nations of the Middle East are composed mostly of Muslims. They are a totally homogeneous group of people. They make up the majority and live in all countries of the Middle East. They all believe the same thing, non-Muslims are incarnations of the devil, pure and simple. The Koran is law.

As someone who has spent many years in that part of the world I know the thought process, I know the feelings, I know what it takes to stay alive.

There are no democratic countries in the Middle East. Not now, not ever. Why is that? That is because the society of those countries are composed of tribes, each individual is loyal to that tribe. First Muslims, second Kurds, Sunnis, Shiite, third citizens of the country in which they reside.

Why dont you think we can track down Osama bin Laden? Because the members of his tribe will protect him. They live in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Every country is controlled by an absolute ruler. Some countries such as the Saudis or Jordanians enjoy a reasonably good life. But, they enjoy that life at the pleasure of the ruler. They have no real say in foreign policy, economic programs or social structure. The Koran is the primary rule of law. Practices that are accepted as normal in other parts of the world are foreign in their world. As an example: Saudi women cannot drive, separate entrances in public places, no dancing or alcoholic drinking, no movie theaters, veils on all women and women can not travel. In some countries it is even more restrictive.

Where does that leave us? Let us take Afghanistan as an example. We all know who the Taliban are, we all know who the al-qaida are. If it had not been for the al-qaida attacking the US that country would still be plugging along. With all the tribes in the country, the only way to unite the country was with oppressive force. Eliminate the tribal leaders, punish the ones who did not obey the rules of the ruling tribe, rule with fear and oppression. This is all OK because it is in accordance with the Koran. If you are a Muslim, you do what the Koran says.

What has happened now. We have completely changed the structure of Afghanistan. No longer is there a primary ruler. The tribal chiefs are rebuilding their armies and we will see within a very short period of time a civil war in Afghanistan that will curl your hair.

Whos going to be in the middle of a civil war that cannot be won? You guessed it, the Americans and theres no way they are going to get out of it.

America are now in a situation where they are trying to oust Saddam Hussein. What do you think is going to happen if they succeed? Already the Kurds have broken away with US and UK help. While this was happening Iraq killed thousands. Over 180,000 Kurds are unaccounted for. In one attack using chemical weapons Iraq killed over 5,000 men, women and children and wiped out an entire city. Bear in mind that these were Iraq citizens, but, they were Kurds.

America is trying to enlist the aid of the Turks. The Turks and the Kurds are death enemies. The Kurds occupy northern Iraq which shares the border with Turkey. They will kill each other on the spot. There is no way that they are going to even co-exist, never mind cooperate.

The US offered Turkey 15 Billion dollars to allow US troops to operate from Turkey. Turkey needs that money in the worst way. It also needs concessions from the West in the way of trade concessions and acceptance into the EU. The political leaders jumped at the opportunity. When it went to the vote of the Turkish Parliament, the representatives of the people, they rejected it out of hand. There was no way that the Turks would do anything to help the Kurds stay independent of Iraq, or help them in any way. The hatred runs that deep.

Destabilize the Middle East and you create a fire storm that is going to engulf the economic structure of the world. If you do not think that the Japanese will do what it takes to ensure their supply of oil, as well as any other country, think again.

What we are creating is a potential for complete change in the structure of the relationship of the world of nations. We are putting countries like Mexico, Philippines, African countries, in a position where the public is against the war but the politicians cannot afford to destroy the relations with the US and UK. Those politicians are being put into a no win situation. If you think they are not going to resent it think again.

Think of this as well. If the United States and Great Britain unilaterally attack Iraq without the sanction of the UN they will be in total and complete violation of the UN Charter. How long do you think the UN can exist after that? It will in fact be destroyed. NATO could dissolve, the EU will become the new super powers.

Take North Korea. America pressed for North Korea and South Korea to unite. The North Koreans said, forget it. Oil shipments to North Korea we cut off using American influence to accomplish that. The North Koreans did the only thing they could do to keep the country running and the lights on, they fired up the nuclear power plants.

Hopefully, the US & UK will come to the conclusion that they will never be able to disarm Iraq. The obvious out is to take the recommendations of Hans Blix (Chief Weapons Inspector) and puff up their chest and announce to the world that we made Iraq disarm and there is no longer a need for war.

The whole exercise is going to change the political structure of the US & UK. In the US they have put so much money on the table that the economy is going to be in the trillions in the hole. America has come to the situation where at one time they paid allies for support. They have degenerated to the point where now they pay them not to be against democracy.

I believe War is imminent and will happen before the end of March. It is a sad set of circumstances that have led up to this war and I can only hope few lives will be lost and the end result provides a solution that satisfies the Powers of this war. It will not be a short war. It may be a short engagement to defeat Iraq but the damage will only make that region of the world more unstable and suspect.

Mr. Russell is CEO of Adversity Consultants, Inc.(ACI"). He writes for several international safety related journals and magazines. ACI consults to international companies and governments in fields of anti-terrorism and safety. Mr. Russell can be reached through their web site at www.adversityconsultants.com