Terror Futures: The Ten Components Of Terror

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TerrorBet.com, the first virtual terror futures exchange today issued its first call for members of the exchange and the public to contribute to the construction of the TerrorBet Index (TBI). The TBI is planned to form the core index of the new virtual terror exchange, and is aimed to become the first apolitical and independent method of quantifying the risk of terror attacks faced by the US, UK and the rest of Europe.

TerrorBet.com, the first virtual terror futures exchange today issued its first call for members of the exchange and the public to contribute to the construction of the TerrorBet Index (TBI). The TBI is planned to form the core index of the new virtual terror exchange, and is aimed to become the first apolitical and independent method of quantifying the risk of terror attacks faced by the US, UK and the rest of Europe.

"It is the question our financial modelling team are grappling with right now." Programme Director Chad Noble said. "How do you quantify terror? Away from warning levels set by politicians, we are seeking to create a true measure of the terror threat. Our team has determined ten independently verifiable parameters to form the components of the index but at this early stage, we are proactively encouraging our members to contribute to the construction of the index.

TerrorBet is a serious push to leverage the skill of our members to produce an index, then offer virtual futures contracts based on it to determine the market view. It is an extremely difficult task but is also vitally important. We are asking the public and our members to share with us what they would consider to be the ten most important factors when constructing an index to measure the terror threat. Each input must be a simple and easily verifiable fact. It is vital that the index can be easily decomposed to validate its value."

Some people will disagree with the inputs we determine to be the most important, and this is why we have opened up the development phase for suggestions and feedback. Now is the time for people to really contribute to this innovative approach to building a TerrorBet Index.

With so much concern that the threat from Iraq was perhaps overstated, it is essential that policymakers, the financial markets and the public in general can look to an independent measure of the real threat we face. The TerrorBet Index is planned to be that measure. Feedback is extremely welcome and necessary to ensure the index reflects the core components of terror. If the TerrorBet Index had been live before the Iraq war, depending on its level, it could have either vindicated the actions of the US or UK or forced them to present better arguments. I am sure everyone would welcome such an advance."

Further details are available on the TerrorBet.com site and all suggestions for inputs to the index can sent directly to TerrorBet's Head of Modelling vlajko@terrorbet.com.

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