Luntz Research Poll Shows Unprecedented Anger Among CA Electorate; Recall Outcome Determined Months Ago

Data from an election night poll of Californians who voted in the Recall election. Discusses main issues driving recall of Governor Gray Davis and election of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Budget deficit, education and jobs are key factors. Californians want legislature and Arnold to work together.

MOOD OF THE ELECTORATE
(PRWEB) October 8 2003--
Im mad as hell and Im not going to take it anymore." That was the rallying cry of Howard Beale, the slightly insane anchor in the movie Network, but it could just as easily been the rallying cry of the California electorate. In my 11 years of polling in local, state, and national politics, I have never witnessed a voting population so disgruntled and pessimistic.

Let me set the context not just for the general mood but for the entire recall effort. We asked voters one of the standard questions of political survey research: right direction/wrong track. Incumbents do well when right direction exceeds 50%. Challengers tend to win when wrong track receives more than half of all responses. Based on the mood of California, Gray Davis never stood a chance.    

Fully 71% of those voting on Election Day said the state was pretty seriously off on the wrong track," while only 18% said it was headed in the right direction and 10% had no opinion. This is truly unprecedented. A majority of every subgroup in the state -- gender, age, partisan affiliation, and recall preference -- believes the state is on the wrong track. Even among those voting against the recall, only 25% felt conditions in the state were moving in a positive direction, while 61% said they were headed the wrong way.    

THE ISSUES THAT MATTER... AND ITS NOT THE CAR TAX

All across America, education has consistently ranked as the most important state issue to the most number of people... but not in California. Here, economic issues like solving the state budget deficit and improving the jobs and economic climate outrank everything else:

                                                              % Extremely   % Rank
Issue                                                        Important    1st/2nd
Solving the California state budget deficit                    65%        62%
Improving the jobs and economic climate in CA             61%        46
Improving education in California                          50%         43%                                
Stopping illegal immigration in California                        40%     25%
Eliminating the car tax                                         35%     16%

Its NOT the car tax, stupid. It is interesting to note that while the car tax received considerable publicity and was the cornerstone of the McClintock gubernatorial campaign and a rallying cry for Arnold, it finished last in importance among the voting public and last even among those voting YES for the recall. The deficit and poor economic climate weighed much more heavily on the minds of pro-recall voters than the car tax.

It is therefore not surprising that when voters were asked what the Number One economic priority for state government should be over the coming year, eliminating the car tax" (at 8%), finished far behind bringing back jobs that left the state and creating new job opportunities" (53%) and cutting wasteful government spending" (36%). Even among those who voted for Tom McClintock, repealing the car tax finished far behind the other two priorities. For Arnold voters, repealing the car tax just doesnt come close to the other economic priorities:

ECONOMIC PRIORITIES AMONG ARNOLD VOTERS

Bring back jobs/create new ones      44%
Cut wasteful govt spending      43%
Repeal car tax             11%

There is considerable opposition to the Workers Compensation legislation supported by Governor Davis and passed by the legislature. By a rather healthy 27% to 44%, voters DISAPPROVE of the package, while 29% did not know enough of the specifics to offer an opinion. Much of the opposition is generated by partisan differences. Republicans oppose the so-called Workers Comp" legislation by almost a 6 to 1 ratio (11% support; 64% oppose), while Democrats support it by a much more narrow 2 to 1 margin (45% support; 22% oppose). Opposition to the legislation by both Arnold and McClintock has clearly had an impact among the electorate overall.

THE STATE LEGISLATURE: WORK WITH THE GOVERNOR

Californians want an end to the political bickering -- not just between the political parties but between the governor and the legislature. Thats the message both YES AND NO voters sent when they cast their ballots. There were some surprises in the polling results:

First, the recall electorate was not nearly as anti-legislature as they were anti-Davis. In fact, the Republicans in the legislature actually received a net positive rating, while the rating for Democrats was more evenly split.

           Republican        Democrat
           Legislators     Legislators
Positive      54%      43%
Negative      37%      49%
NET           +17%         - 6%   

It should be noted that some of the disparity between Republicans and Democrat evaluations because of the turnout differential that clearly leaned Republican. However, and this is important...

--   The Republican legislative evaluation was higher among registered Democrats (24% positive) than the Democrat legislative evaluation among Republicans (only 16% positive); and    

--   Republicans rated their Republican members of the legislature higher (85% positive) than the Democrat rating of Democrat legislators (78%).

It is unclear whether these results are a result of Republicans becoming more partisan in their outlook than Democrats. It does appear, however, that the recall, and all the factors that created the recall, may represent a genuine political realignment that may fundamentally change the political composition of the Legislature in 2004.

Second, there is overwhelming sentiment among voters that the governor and the legislature have to work more closely together. Fully 56% of the electorate said they want the governor to work very closely" with the legislature, while 22% said somewhat closely" and only 16% expressed a desire for the governor and legislature to remain independent and keep their distance." While there are noticeable partisan differences, only 25% of Democrats want the legislature and governor working independently of each other (7% of Republicans had a similar response). The implications are clear. There will be a big political price to pay for legislators who openly work against the new governor -- at least at the outset.

Finally, we asked voters whether it would be better for the legislature to remain overwhelmingly Democrat or whether it would be better to have a more even balance or even Republican control. Neither party will be heartened by the result.

--   Only 25% of the electorate want a Republican majority in the legislature to match the newly elected Republican governor. Even among registered Republicans, just 47% want to see their party in complete control.

--   31% want the Democrats to maintain their nearly 2/3 majority.

--   39% prefer an even balance between Republicans and Democrats.

California voters want political balance, and they will reject anything overtly partisan. Republicans will need to keep the celebrations muted if they want voters to back them in 2004, while Democrats will need to avoid appearing obstructionist.        

THE RECALL

Much of the recall has been covered by exit polls. However, we have two findings that deserve attention:

*   Voters were evenly split between those who think the recall was a good thing (47%) or a bad thing (46%) for California. Surprisingly, fully 24% of registered Republicans and even 19% of those who voted YES on the recall did not say the recall was a good thing for California. Among Arnold voters, 82% felt the recall was a good thing for California, 11% felt it was a bad thing and 9% had no opinion.

*   Gray Davis lost the election the day the recall was certified. The media has focused on the lackluster campaign by the Governor to keep his job as the reason for his lost. That assumption is simply incorrect. For the clear majority of voters, the economic conditions of the state were much more important than the personality of the governor (64% to 13% -- with 23% having no response) in determining their vote on the recall. Just look at the response to this by YES and NO voters:

WHICH HAD A GREATER IMPACT ON YOUR VOTE

                 YES ON RECALL   NO ON RECALL
   
Economic conditions         83%       14%
Gray Davis                12%        41%
Both/neither/DK           5%       46%
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