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Iraqs cellular market growth will most resemble Lebanons in the coming two years.
A new Arab Advisors Group comprehensive report on Iraqs telecommunications sector shows that, at least in the short term, the Iraqi telecommunications situation will be most similar to Lebanons during its civil war years and right after its end. Iraq will most likely have GSM networks given the regional context as well as the frequency allocation for the licensees.
The road to a stable, durable and democratic political future in Iraq will be thorny. The future stability and security of Iraq will depend on a true understanding of Iraqs problems and the regional context. The Iraqis have suffered terribly under the previous regime whose disregard for human rights, democracy, accountability and transparency is, unfortunately, not outside the norm in the Middle East. As ruthless as Saddam Hussiens regime was, and as terrible its effects on Iraq and the Iraqis, Iraqs problems did not all start with Saddam and will not end with Saddam.
The political context strongly affects the economic context in which telecom services are given. The Arab Advisors Group believes that, at least in the short term, the Iraqi telecommunications situation will be most similar to Lebanons during its civil war years and right after its end. Indeed, in our projections for the short-term (2 years) demand for cellular services in Iraq, we have mostly benchmarked with the example of Lebanon in front of us. Naturally, what is needed in Iraq is not just cellular services. Reliable data infrastructure and fixed services is sourly needed in Iraq to enable the development of a strong financial system to be a strong pillar in economic development.
A new comprehensive country report, Iraq Telecommunications Market Status Report 2003" was released by the Arab Advisors Groups (www.arabadvisors.com) on July 27th, 2003. The 36-pages report includes 21 exhibits that fully cover existing and pre-occupation communications situation in the country. This comprehensive report can be purchased from Arab Advisors Group for only US$ 1,500. Any investment in this report will count towards a Strategic Research Service subscription should the service be acquired within three months from purchasing the report. The reports Table of Contents can be obtained by contacting the Arab Advisors Group.
This report has five major sections. An introduction in section I that is followed by market indicators in Section II. In section III, the Arab Advisors Group discusses the existing regulatory system in Iraq and the upcoming cellular licenses in the country. Guided by telecom usage trends from the telecoms infrastructure before the occupation, Arab Advisors Group presents projections on the uptake of cellular services in Iraq in the coming 2 years including subscriber numbers, projected ARPU levels and revenues and well as projected minutes of usage. In Section IV, the report presents a thorough picture of the situation of Iraqs telecommunications market before the war. Finally, in section V the report presents full yet concise demographic, economic and geographic background on the country.
It is still not decided whether the three new GSM licenses, whose RFPs will be issued shortly, will use CDMA or GSM that is used throughout the rest of the Middle East. The license tender requirements state that operators will be granted a license to utilize frequencies in 900 MHz bandwidth. The Arab Advisors Group believes that the cellular technology to be used will be GSM since commercial CDMA technology typically utilizes frequencies in the 800 MHz band. Theoretically, CDMA as a technology can work on any frequency. However, it would cost a lot more if CDMA equipment is specifically ordered to work in the 900 MHz band.
The Arab Advisors Groups team of analysts in the region has already produced more than 170 reports on the Arab Worlds communications markets. The reports can be purchased individually or received through an annual subscription to Arab Advisors Groups (www.arabadvisors.com) Strategic Research Service. To date, Arab Advisors Group has served more than 100 global and regional companies by providing reliable research analysis and forecasts of Arab communications markets to these clients. Some of our clients can be viewed on www.arabadvisors.com/flagship.htm
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Special note to the editors: Kindly use Arab Advisors (not AAG) when abbreviating Arab Advisors Group. AAG is not a suitable abbreviation since it conflicts with the name of another company not related at all to Arab Advisors Group.
Arab Advisors Groups Arabic name is مجموعة المرشدين العرب
Please include our name in English in brackets after the name in Arabic
Arab Advisors Group provides reliable research, analysis and forecasts of Arab communications, media and technology markets.
Arab Advisors Group Strategic Research Service is an annual subscription that has five forms of deliverables. The service covers sixteen countries in the Arab World: Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Palestine, Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. Overall, the subscription involves receiving thirty country-specific reports, six industry trends reports, at least fifty two research notes per year in addition to fifteen hours of one-on-one interaction time with the analysts.
For more information, please contact the Arab Advisors Group offices. www.arabadvisors.com
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