Is Google Dancing -- or Shooting Itself inthe Foot?

In a huge shake-up, Google transitioned to yet another improved" set of search results Monday in a monthly recalculation known as the Google Dance." But this time, many industry professionals say, Google wasnt dancing; it shot itself in the foot. ("Disaster," they say.) Meanwhile, Google Co-founder Sergey Brin spoke to the World Economic Forum on the Secrets of Hipness. Can the world's hippest search engine hang on against new upstarts like Yahoo and Microsoft?

Atlanta, GA (SearchEngineRadio/PRWEB ) January 29, 2004 --Google, the Internets dominant search engine employing more than 100 Ph.Ds, transitioned to yet another improved" set of search results yesterday in a monthly recalculation known as the Google Dance." But this time, many industry professionals say, Google wasnt dancing; it shot itself in the foot.

100 Ph.Ds Cant Be Wrong . . . Right?

Roughly once a month, Web site owners nervously await the Google Dance, named for the shake-up that occurs as changes to the well-guarded algorithm are populated across its 10,000 servers around the world. As the new changes begin going live on different servers, varying search results are seen for a day or two for the same search from different countries and even on consecutive searches on the same computer.

By the time the dust settled this time, however, those who watched it happen were howling with protest. We all support Googles changes to deliver more relevant results to the user. But for many web site owners, this isnt an improvement; its a disaster," says Brad Fallon, founder of SEO Research, LLC.

Such sentiments, though not uniform, appear to be widely shared among early observers. While many are cheering Googles efforts to continually deliver better, more relevant results, a trip through the professionals online forms reveals that many more are not impressed.

According to one poster to an online forum for SEO (search engine optimization) professionals at webmasterworld.com, Google knows the results stink, they just won't admit it. They are trudging forward, hoping to get the quality sites back, while keeping the spam out. Right now Google is failing big time." http://www.webmasterworld.com/forum3/21443-30-15.htm

Others are more direct:

This truly is a disaster. Google [has] to be stopped," says one poster while another fears for his livelihood, Oh my god, I am going to have to sell my house." http://www.webmasterworld.com/forum3/21443-2-15.htm

Of course, theres always two sides. Some seem to appreciate Googles efforts. Regardless of how ones web site fared in the latest update, theres no denying the shakeup was significant.

Out of the Hurricane -- Into the Fire

Prior to this weekend, the last significant change to Googles search results, the Florida update, was made on November 16, 2003, slightly more than two months ago. (Like hurricanes, significant Google changes are now given their own names.) Last Fall, Florida" cut a path of destruction across thousands of mostly commercial search terms. In many cases, more than 60 percent of the Top 100 search results for a given search terms were simply dropped from the listings -- poof!

Right before Christmas, many web site owners and online retailers saw their site traffic fly away like a piece of driftwood in a hurricane. Of course Google keeps a tight lid on whats really occurring. So not surprisingly, theories abound. Late last year, the leading conspiracy theory posited that Google dumped commercial search results before the holiday buying season to drive desperate online retailers to its paid AdWords pay-per-click program. Cynics noted that the additional revenue wouldnt hurt Google upcoming IPO. Google, and most professional SEOs, deny any relationship between Google AdWords and the natural search results.

For a large number of web site owners, however, regardless of the reason thats exactly what happened. For many, accustomed to years of high rankings for their relevant web sites, it was a simple choice -- paid traffic or no traffic.

Now, it appears that the first update of 2004, Austin, has gone on where Florida left off. Many top-ranked site owners that survived Florida woke up Monday morning and immediately wished they had stayed in bed.

As Fallon explains, Its hard to describe the feeling these site owners get. But when youve gotten used to running the same search over and over and seeing your site #1, its quite a shock to suddenly look and . . . nothing! You hit refresh a few times because you cant believe it. Then you start looking through the next couple pages, and when its not there, panic sets in as you start trying your other search terms. Depending on what you find, it can be slightly comforting, or real panic as the economics start to sink in."

But the worst part is when web masters start looking at the new results that appear," Fallon adds. When they see the kind of junky, off-topic, irrelevant sites that just replaced the site that they have been working on for years," he explains, Well, you can see where theyre coming from. Theyre frustrated and theyre thinking, like a lot of us, 'What is Google thinking?'"

This week, there are many examples that make people wonder. For example, a search for atlanta criminal lawyer" prior to this weekend delivered first page search results that included, not surprisingly, many Atlanta criminal lawyers. Not so anymore. For example, the number one search result is for a Canadian directory owned by, ironically, a Canadian Web marketing firm with three listings for lawyers -- in Toronto. Huh?

The rest of the first page listings are mostly filled with large-site directories related to criminal law -- but no Atlanta criminal lawyers. Indeed, some of the directories" is merely a link exchange page on one law firms site -- in Indiana.

What were seeing," according to Fallon, is not a filter" or penalty," (one popular theory), but simply a change in the overall algorithm. "Unfortunately for smaller or local businesses, the change that seemingly attempts to benefit national directories and central resources, tends to hurt the individual web site owners," he says. Whether intentional or not, whats happened is that Google has changed their algorithm to the detriment off the little guy,"

Will Another Apology Help Google Stay Cool?

Although Google wont divulge much about ongoing changes, they do seem to be hearing the frustration. In fact, after the Florida update, Google Senior Research Scientist, Craig Nevill-Manning, was widely quoted in what to some was a stunning apology.

I apologize for the roller coaster. Were aware that changes in the algorithm affect peoples livelihoods. We dont make changes lightly," he said.

Interestingly, many of the web masters feeling the most frustration were the biggest fans" that originally spread the word about the new kid on the block when Google started out. Now, many of them wonder what Google thought was so broken that it needed fixing this badly. If market share is any judge, most users were happy with Googles search results. Since November, however, the grumblings have grown louder.

Already, there are indications that Google is losing favor with its early-adopting professional web masters and techies. Ironically of course, it was the computer geeks who led Google from nowhere to dominate an already crowded field of bigger, established search engines. Word spread quickly about the simple, efficient search engine that delivered excellent results.

In short, Google was cool.

Now Googles hipness may be in question. It is not just the people that observe and test search results every day are starting to move on. This time, the techies are hearing it from their non-computer-oriented friends.

Have you heard of All the Web," computer novice recently asked his search engine optimizing friend. To a professional SEO, thats sort of funny.

Whether Google maintains its status as the King of Cool long enough to put billions in the founders pockets with their coming IPO is probably not in doubt. Whether it can sustain and return profits to public shareholders who will buy in soon thereafter is much less certain.

Already, Google is facing much stiffer competition from seasoned players with deep pockets who say they now get" the long-term importance of Search and believe that theyre not too late.

Both Yahoo (a big customer until later this month) and MSN plan to launch their own search engines. Yahoo plans to dump Google and begin delivering Inktomi results by the end of next month. MSN is already deep in development of its own search engine. And although starting a search engine from scratch is no easy feat, head-to-head competition with Microsoft is never something to look forward to.

Of course Google probably has nothing to worry about. Even after Yahoo stops delivering Google results by the end of next month as promised, Google will still provide more than 50 percent of all internet searches. Not bad. But long-term success seems less certain as Google drives away users fed up with changes that deliver ridiculous search results in many cases.

Staying Cool May be Easy for the Consultant of Hip

Googles struggle to maintain superiority as the hip search engine is especially ironic given the fact that Sergey Brin, one of Googles co-founders is now a Hipness Consultant."

No kidding. According to Business Week Online (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4065453/) Brin, spoke last week at the World Ecomic Forum. His topic? The Secrets of Hipness. Among his tips, If you have to think about being hip, youre never going to be hip."    

And by all accounts, Google is still about as hip as companies get. For example. their long-standing corporate policy encouraging their super smart employees to spend 20 percent of their time working on side projects bodes well for maintaining their edge.

According to Business Week Online, the Hip Guru, Brin, joked that once hes finished with Google he would like to develop a scanner to be used at airports to prevent unhip people from boarding airplanes. He likes his fellow passengers to be cool, he said.

Dont worry, Sergie. Youll have your own jet soon enough.

But as much as one is concerned about Brin not having to hang with the unhip, one hopes for the sake of the small business owners around the world that Google fixes things fast.

Otherwise, isnt it amazing how fast things can go from hot -- to not?

About Brad Fallon and SEO Research, LLC

Brad Fallon is the founder of SEO Research (www.seoresearch.com), a unique think tank and research lab focused solely on gathering hard data about leading search engine algorithms. Using carefully designed experiments, researchers reverse engineer the secret formulas" behind the major search engines for business clients where search engine rankings mean the difference between financial success and failure.

Brad Fallon is the author of Creating Customers Out of Thin Air: Secrets of Online Marketing for Offline Businesses. Among other things, he advises clients not to depend too heavily on Google traffic for their business model. Current projects include Googleisms -- 21 Fun Things to Do with Google.

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If you'd like more information about this topic, or to schedule an interview with Brad Fallon, please call Brad at (404) 849-2199 or e-mail media@seoresearch.com.