Dean Descending from Peak in New Hampshire?

Throughout most of October, November and December of 2003, most opinion polls in New Hampshire indicated a clear and growing preference for the former governor of neighboring Vermont, Dr. Howard Dean among likely Democratic presidential primary voters.

(PRWEB) January 13, 2004 --Dean Descending from Peak in New Hampshire?

January 10, 2003

Throughout most of October, November and December of 2003, most opinion polls in New Hampshire indicated a clear and growing preference for the former governor of neighboring Vermont, Dr. Howard Dean among likely Democratic presidential primary voters. By early December, Dean's lead over his closest rival, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, had grown to 32 percentage points with Dean enjoying the preference of nearly half of the primary electorate. On December 3, an American Research Group poll in New Hampshire showed Dean to be the preferred choice of 45% of likely primary voters, with Kerry claiming just 13% and all other candidate scoring less than 10%.

However as the old year rolled to a close and New Hampshire's first in the nation primary election on January 27th looms larger, more recent polls show strong indications of Dean beginning to descend from these former stratospheric heights. As of January 8, the American Research Group NH tracking poll showed Dean's share of New Hampshire voters dropping to just 35%, a 10% decline since mid-December. Also over the past three weeks, Senator Kerry and retired US Army General Wesley Clark have both demonstrated significant ability to gain traction in narrowing Dean's lead.

In the latter half of December, Kerry succeeded in cutting Deans lead nearly in half, from 32% to 18%, after an intensive schedule of retail campaigning aboard his "Real Deal Express." And as Kerry returned to Iowa to focus on the January 19th caucuses there, General Clark initiated a massive media spending blitz in the Granite State and began campaigning more actively on the ground. Between December 28 and January 8th, Clark has cut Dean's lead over himself from 25% to Just 15%.

Clark's rise in New Hampshire coincides with a slide for Kerry into third place and is indicative of a newfound volatility in the race being noted by many observers. Conventional wisdom holds that Senator Kerry's ultimate fate in New Hampshire rests heavily on his performance in the Iowa caucuses where recent polls and reports from the field indicate a tightening race between Dean and Congressman Richard Gephardt, with Kerry coming up strongly from the rear. But whatever the days remaining between now and January 27th may hold in store, one thing that does seem clear at this point is that Dean's claim to the top slot in New Hampshire appears much less certain today than it did just one month ago.
###