Bush Leads in Red States, Kerry Ahead in Blue States Voters Hardened on the Economy, War, Gay Marriage

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A new poll conducted by Zogby International for The OÂ?Leary Report and Southern Methodist UniversityÂ?s John Tower Center from February 12-15, 2004 of 1,209 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points found that if the election for president were held today, Democrat John Kerry would edge George W. Bush 46% to 45% in the Â?blue statesÂ? Â? or states won by Al Gore in the 2000 election. In the Â?red states,Â? or states won by George W. Bush in 2000, however, Bush wins handily by a 51% to 39% margin.

A new poll conducted by Zogby International for The O’Leary Report and Southern Methodist University’s John Tower Center from February 12-15, 2004 of 1,209 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points found that if the election for president were held today, Democrat John Kerry would edge George W. Bush 46% to 45% in the “blue states” – or states won by Al Gore in the 2000 election. In the “red states,” or states won by George W. Bush in 2000, however, Bush wins handily by a 51% to 39% margin.

In terms of right direction/wrong direction, blue state voters felt the country was headed in the wrong direction by a 47% to 45% margin while red state voters felt the country was headed in the right direction by a 50% to 40% margin, according to an additional Zogby International/O’Leary Report/John Tower Center survey of Red States/Blue States conducted from February 12-15, 2004 of 532 likely Blue State voters and 543 likely Red State voters with a margin of error of + 4.3 percentage points found that.

Forty-seven percent of blue state voters rated Bush’s job performance as good or excellent while 51% said the president’s job performance was only fair or poor. Fifty-five percent of red states, however, rated the president’s performance and good or excellent while 45% had a fair or poor opinion of the President’s job performance.

On the issue of a strong economy and low unemployment versus job creation, Blue State voters who feel a strong economy is a bigger priority than job creation by a 50% to 40% margin while Red State voters also agreed by a 48% to 40%. [see attachment for detailed breakdown of results]

A majority of voters in the survey also reject the filibuster strategy employed by Senate Democrats against some of President Bush’s judicial nominees. This is consistent with polling results under President Clinton when voters rejected Republican efforts to block judicial nominees. Fifty-three percent of Blue State and 59% of Red State voters felt the Democratic filibuster of judicial nominees was wrong while 35% of Blue State and 32% of Red State voters feel a minority of Senators are right to use whatever means to necessary to block the nominees.

While the issue of gay marriages dominates the news in San Francisco and Boston, a majority of Americans remain opposed to the idea. Fifty-two percent of Red State voters and 50% of Blue State voters support such a constitutional amendment while 43% of Red State voters and 44% of Blue State voters disagree.

Voters gave Bush a decided edge when asked who would do a better job of dealing with Al Qaeda, Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gaddafi, North Korea and Iran. Bush was the clear choice among Red State voters (53%) and Blue State votes (47%). Only 31% of Red State voters and 35% of Blue State voters felt Kerry would do a better job in dealing with rogue states and leaders.

For L.A. Press Only: Pollster John Zogby will be presenting these poll results at a meeting of the Wednesday Morning Club at the Beverly Hills Hotel at 1:00 p.m. on Wednesday, February 18, 2004. There will be a press availability at 1:45 p.m. for Los Angeles press. Press Inquiries or interview requests for John Zogby immediately following the presentation should be directed to Elizabeth Ruiz at 323-556-2550 ext. 202. All interview requests for John Zogby other than for the Wednesday Morning Club presentation should be directed to Shawnta Watson Walcott at Zogby International at 202-429-0022. Television or radio interview requests for Brad O’Leary should be directed to Clara Hickerson at 323-556-5600 ext. 109.

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Clara Hickerson
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