CANADIAN Researchers forecast an above Average Hurricane Season

CANADIAN Environmental Science and Research Group has been operational for 9 years and has a board of directors and a Science and Research Council who oversee the science operations and management of the group. The group has released forecasts for 7 years to the NEMA agencies in the Caribbean and most years is called by phone to ask our lead researchers for a synopsis of the season.

(PRWEB) March 16, 2004 --The organization CANADIAN Environmental Science and Research Group (CESAR Group) has been releasing predictions of the number of named storms in the Caribbean and Atlantic basin to Caribbean nations for the last seven years and has a benchmark of 80-percentile correctness over the research period and in most instances much higher. We will see an above average season with 12 Named storms for this year. Certain indices demonstrate a carry over from the year 2003 and it appears a neutral season will occur this year instead of an El Nino or a La Nina event" states Lead Researcher-Tropical Weather Robert Tye with the organization.

The founders of the forecast scheme utilized over 150 years of Hurricane archives and 30 years of quantified data to arrive at their theory. The differences between other organizations and CESAR Groups formula is that their teams analyzes the preceding years prime indices where as the Groups combine both prime indices and a lunar cycle formula that represents each hurricane month prior to the season.

It is interesting to note that occasionally the number of named storms parallel or nears other organizations storm numbers such as this year. Where as their figure are 13 named storms and CESAR Groups is 12 named storms. Another differential between other forecasts and CESAR Groups is that they break named storms into the Saffir Simpson Hurricane intensity scale where the group forecasts the total number of named storms within the Saffir Simpson Hurricane intensity scale. Albeit they do predict the number of major category storms (3+) for the season.

All teams forecast the number of named storm days. In this frame, CESAR Groups correctness is as high as 93-percentile rating. The groups prediction scheme includes the number of named storms on a monthly forecast in calendar days for the hurricane season prior to June 1.