21st Century Media Forecasts from 19th Century Math!

Bayville, NY (PRWEB) June 23, 2004 -

– A media research firm has generated 5-year ad spending forecasts, using 150-year-old math. “The Gompertz curve was developed in the 19th century by a self-taught British mathematician,” said Kip Cassino of Ad Audit Services. “It turns out that his model fits an ad category’s ‘life cycle’ exceptionally well.”

“An ad category’s position on the curve has profound implications to its advertising and marketing strategy,” Cassino noted. “A category in the ‘development’ phase seeks market share, even at the risk of lower margins. A category at ‘saturation’ is more interested in defending share and raising margin where possible.”

Ad Audit Services ran 25-year sales histories for more than 100 advertiser categories through Gompertz analysis, and then projected their ad sales to 2009, based on the results. “The future looks good for media in general,” Cassino said, “but there are some clear winners and losers.” Overall, the analysis forecasts ad spending to grow more than 18 percent over current levels by 2009, to more than $305 billion.

Market-level results don’t often match those at the national level,” Cassino cautioned, noting that forecasts for every U.S. market are available.

Contact Ad Audit Services for a free copy of the full national forecast, which includes a “backcast” to 1999.

Celebrating it’s tenth year of service to media, Ad Audit Services provides ad spending share measurement for every U.S. market and more than 130 countries around the world. Founder Kip Cassino is a working research professional who has served as President of the NAA’s Research Federation. The company’s ad measurement services are currently in use by more than 100 media companies.

CONTACT INFORMATION:

Kip Cassino

Ad Audit Services

800-597-9956

http://www.adauditservices.com