Latest Poll Indicates 2000-Election Supporters Abandoning Bush at Rapid Rate
Survey shows global events dramatically impacting image of incumbent U.S. President.
Seattle, WA (PRWEB) July 29, 2004 -- George W. Bush will need to mount a valiant effort by November if he expects to recapture many formerly loyal supporters who currently favor Democratic candidate John F. Kerry in the 2004 presidential election, according to a poll released today by an independent, global market-research company.
The World Poll® survey, completed last week by Seattle-based GMI Inc., surveyed 1,000 media-informed individuals via the Internet in each of the worlds leading G8 economic nations*. Questions were designed to solicit opinions on numerous topical issues and critical global events. GMI World Poll surveys use fully profiled double opt-in panels from more than 500 global sources to help achieve 97-percent accuracy in their statistical results.
GMIs most recent World Poll indicates that only about 75 percent of Bush voters from the 2000 election still support the president. It shows that Kerry, conversely, has the support of more than 85 percent of those who favored former Vice President Al Gore four years ago. And, perhaps as significant, about 14 percent of 2000 Bush voters remain undecided about this years election while 10 percent of previous Gore voters have not yet made up their minds.
One of the polls key findings is that military activities in Iraq and the Bush Administrations ongoing global war on terrorism - not domestic issues such as economic health and campaign exposure - are at the core of President Bushs eroding base of loyal voters.
To that end, approximately 90 percent of these Kerry cross-overs" cite a lack of current global governmental leadership and dissatisfaction with the Bush Administrations stance on the Iraq War as reasons for abandoning the president in this years election.
"It is clear that international affairs such as the U.S. policy in Iraq and the use of U.S. military force in the Middle East could tip the outcome of the 2004 election either way," said Princeton University Professor Douglas S. Massey with the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. "One terrorist event could swing the election in Bush's favor, but continued conflict and additional dead U.S. soldiers in Iraq could swing the election in Kerry's favor."
This survey is fascinating because it violates all our conventional wisdom of what impacts an incumbents image during the election year," commented Dr. Mitch Eggers, chief operating officer at GMI. Eggers, a world-class demographer, develops the GMI World Polls.
Eggers added that this years presidential-election voters, unlike others in recent American history, might base their decisions on more than just a healthy or resurging economy and wide spread television ad buys.
The poll also uncovered some interesting differences in support for President Bush between Americans and non-Americans," stated Eggers. According to the poll, 47 percent of surveyed Americans believe President Bush is an effective global leader while samples from other countries overwhelmingly think Bush has failed in this role. In fact, 92 percent of French citizens and 88 percent of Germans disapprove of the presidents international leadership capabilities.
The role that the news media play in forming public opinion of President Bush and how those opinions differ between the U.S. and other G8 countries are also addressed by the GMI World Poll. On average, the perception of U.S.-media bias among Americans appears to be fairly minimal, with most believing coverage to be either balanced or only somewhat biased in its approach.
But when examining likely voters along each party line, some distinct differences emerge. For example, 82 percent of confirmed Bush voters feel the U.S. media is somewhat or extremely biased against the president while only 19 percent of likely Kerry supporters believe the same bias is true.
In other countries, such as Canada, surveyed individuals perceive the U.S.-media bias in much the same way. Almost 50 percent of Kerry supporters in Canada feel the U.S. media is either somewhat biased or extremely positive toward Bush while 62 percent of Canadian Bush supporters believe the U.S. media is somewhat biased or extremely negatively in their coverage of the incumbent president.
Interestingly, when other countries examined their own media biases as it relates to the 2004 U.S. presidential election, a significantly different opinion was expressed. For example, people from the United Kingdom who support Kerry feel reporting in their region is either balanced and accurate (34 percent) or biased negatively (40 percent) toward Bush. But 66 percent of those who support Bush feel reporting in the UK is largely negatively against the president.
In addition, Russian samples perceive a major bias against Bush among their own media, no matter which U.S. presidential candidate they happened to support.
Results of both GMI World Poll surveys - the first was completed in June - are available in their entirety at the following Web site: http://worldpoll.com . Upon request, GMI will provide media with comprehensive World Poll survey results cross-tabulated by variables such as age, gender, geographic region, and where applicable, race and ethnicity.
*G8 nations are the world's major industrial democracies, including Canada, France, Germany, China, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Political questions in China we omitted.
About GMI World Poll
GMI World Poll is an accurate and fast means to gather international opinions about topical issues and critical global events. Real-time results are available electronically in as little as 24 hours. GMI World Poll is the only survey that polls global opinions in real time, on-line, and with statistically accurate results. Targeted for users worldwide, GMI World Poll is the ideal survey for immediate opinion polling about key issues or events, such as elections, war, terrorism, global economy, obesity, global warming, to name a few. More information on GMI World Poll is available at http://worldpoll.gmi-mr.com.
About GMI
GMI provides e-Business solutions for market research. The companys advanced software, global panels, and service bureau capabilities are built around a deep competence in conducting multi-country research using a Net-centric approach to data collection. With operations on four continents, GMI is the partner of choice for conducting global market research at the speed of the
Internet. More information on GMI is available at http://www.gmi-mr.com.
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