Forget The Polls – It Is Up To Bush (Not Kerry) To “Close The Deal” In Key Midwestern States To Win The 2004 Election

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An article in the new issue of the weekly web magazine News Informant explains that much of the media is missing the keys to the fall 2004 presidential election. In contrast to most reports, it is President George W. Bush -- not Senator John Kerry -- who needs to “close the deal” with the American public in order to secure the election. In addition, polls showing one candidate or another in the lead in the popular vote miss the point that U.S. presidential elections are dependent upon the outcome in the Electoral College. In fact, several states of the Great Lakes region: Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will likely determine who will be U.S. president next year.

The article, entitled “Surprise: It Is Bush Who Needs To “Close The Deal” To Win The 2004 Election,” clarifies that most voters are deciding how to cast their vote based upon their attitude towards Bush. According to News Informant editor Bernard Perlstein, “Polls indicate that, by a 5-3 margin, people are deciding who to support -- whether Bush or Kerry -- depending upon how they feel about President Bush. This makes sense, since he is the incumbent,” Perlstein adds. “The implication is that whether or not people responded enthusiastically to this or that speech by Kerry means less than the perceived success, over the next few month’s, of the President’s policies.”

The article also reveals how the national polls may be misleading. Since the election does not depend upon the outcome of the popular vote, as was made clear in 2000, but instead, who wins in the Electoral College, the key to winning a close election will likely be determined by who wins in a few key states. “Kerry may win by large margins in California and New York and Bush by a similar margin in Texas,” Perlstein agrees. “But if one of the candidates wins by small margins in each of states in the Great Lakes area, he will probably win the election.” The states in this region include: Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Indiana tends to be the most Republican, and Illinois the most Democratic. Kerry can probably win the election by winning in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as Illinois. If Bush wins in Ohio and Michigan, in addition to Indiana, the President will most likely be re-elected.

The article further details the three issues upon which registered voters will make their decision. These are: the Iraq war, the economy, and homeland security. The situation in Iraq, it explains, will probably get worse before it gets better. The economy has been sluggish lately, which will make it more difficult for Bush in the key Midwestern states mentioned. The President could be helped, when it comes to security, by the capture of Osama bin Laden. Terror concerns may also help Bush. However, raising the terror alerts too often, when there are no actual attacks, may backfire for the White House in Bush’s reelection bid.

The News Informant original article in its entirety, and its sources, can be found on the web at: http://www.newsinformant.com/articles/2004_08_09/000729.php. A free registration is required to view the article.

To request a free copy of the article, or to obtain reprint rights or other use of the article, please contact Media@newsinformant.com.

About News Informant Inc.

News Informant Inc. publishes News Informant, a weekly U.S.-based web news magazine focusing on news analysis of important domestic and global issues that are not sufficiently covered by the U.S. media. The magazine uses primarily respected worldwide online source material to render original information and perspectives. The periodical follows the slogan, “It’s Not Just the News –- It’s What’s Behind the News.”

Note that News Informant™ is a registered trademark of News Informant Inc.

CONTACT INFORMATION:

Tonya D. Hottmann

News Informant Inc.

312-644-9868

http://www.newsinformant.com

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Tonya D. Hottmann
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