TDG Forecasts 802.11n IC Shipments to Top 90 Million Worldwide by 2007

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The Diffusion Group predicts that 802.11n may steal much of UWBs thunder due to UWB spectral limitations and WiFiÂ?s marketing momentum.

A new report from consumer technology think-tank, The Diffusion Group, suggests that UWB will face tough obstacles on the way to widespread market penetration. "UWB and 802.11n ICs: Competitive Analysis & Forecasts," the group’s latest report, predicts that 802.11n integrated circuits will leverage the pattern established by its WiFi-based predecessors, something new wireless solutions such as UWB do not have: (1) rapid standards adoption with interoperability assurance control, and (2) backwards compatibility that also serves to accelerate the replacement cycle of the installed base of 802.11n predecessors.

"The window of market entry for new wireless technologies is closing rapidly," says Dr. Predrag Filipovic, consulting analyst with The Diffusion Group. “While UWB may offer greater throughput than today’s 802.11x solutions, new consumer multimedia systems will require longer ranges than UWB’s 10-foot promise. Moreover, the next generation of 802.11 (802.11n) has plenty of ammunition – 100 Mbps or more – to address bandwidth intensive multimedia applications across greater distances.”

Other key findings of the TDG’s new study include the following:

•    802.11n will establish significant market presence in 2006 and thereafter experience growth acceleration with emerging deployment solutions optimized for multimedia and WLAN-based communications.

•    UWB faces much tougher obstacles on its road to widespread diffusion:

•    A lack of consensus around a single standard and no systems interoperability among alternatives will increase the risks that manufacturers will face, thus adversely affecting deployment;

•    Given present spectral limitations, UWB technologies do not currently present a dramatically better option when compared to existing wireless solutions and will thus face a very tough battle with the next generation of 802.11 technologies; and

•    The technical and quality requirements for home multimedia networks and the ad-hoc networking development underway will severely limit multimedia and communication network opportunities for UWB.

•    UWB systems will not see widespread deployment until 2007, after a single standard is agreed upon and the confirmation of promised performance/price characteristics of UWB implementations.

TDG’s new report, "UWB and 802.11n ICs: Competitive Analysis & Forecasts," offers a critical examination of the two wireless technologies; a discussion of the UWB standards battle; and forecasts for both UWB- and 802.11n-enabled solutions through 2009.

About The Diffusion Group

The Diffusion Group is a “think tank” of consumer technology analysts charged with providing timely, actionable intelligence designed to best position new consumer technologies for rapid diffusion. TDG is committed to providing market research and strategic consulting services based on conservative, real-world analysis and market forecasts grounded in consumer research. For more information about The Diffusion Group, visit our website at http://www.tdgresearch.com or email info@tdgresearch.com.

Contact:

Andy Tarczon

andy@thediffusiongroup.com

214.677.9723

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