More than Half of Dial-Up Subscribers Interested in Upgrading to Broadband During 2005

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New research from The Diffusion Group finds a marked increase in the number of dial-up subscribers likely to upgrade to broadband in the next several months.

Although interest in subscribing to broadband Internet service in the US is widely reported to be waning, a new study from consumer technology think-tank, The Diffusion Group, found that more than one-half of dial-up households are to varying degrees interested in upgrading to broadband service during 2005.

"These findings represent notable momentum in favor of continued consumer demand for broadband connectivity," said Michael Greeson, President and Principal Analyst of The Diffusion Group. "As broadband adoption topped 34 million households at year-end 2004, many observers suggested that demand would falter, that the S-curve would flatten. However, this has not happened. Instead, we are witnessing levels of upgrade interest we haven’t seen in years."

According to TDG's new research, 21.3% of dial-up households are "somewhat likely" to upgrade to broadband services (answering "5" on a 7-point scale), 15.9% are "moderately likely" to upgrade (answering "6"), and 14.7% "definitely will upgrade" to broadband service (answering "7"). In reality, Greeson points out, interest does not in-and-of-itself translate into concrete demand. "When consumers tell you they are 'interested' in upgrading to broadband, this by no means logically entails that they will definitely sign up. Rather, it suggests that they are positively disposed toward signing up. This disposition must be leveraged by well-targeted marketing efforts, reasonable pricing, and compelling service combinations.”

TDG predicts that real broadband penetration among US households will grow from 34 million at year-end 2004 to 41.7 million at year-end 2005.

About The Diffusion Group (TDG Research)

The Diffusion Group is a consumer technology research and strategic marketing firm built by a team of seasoned consumer technology analysts. Our mission is simple: to provide timely, actionable intelligence designed to best position new consumer technologies for rapid diffusion. TDG is committed to providing market research and strategic consulting services based on conservative, real-world analysis and market forecasts grounded in consumer research. For more information about The Diffusion Group, visit our website at


Andy Tarczon


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