(PRWEB) April 22, 2005
By the time you read this, it may be a foregone conclusion that quarterback Alex Smith of Utah will be the NFL's #1 draft selection, by way of a pick held by the San Francisco Forty-Niners.
But as far as Charles Jay is concerned, the real question is, how many spots will he chosen ahead of the "other" Alex Smith, the tight end from Stanford?
Such are the thoughts that go through the mind of an oddsmaker.
Jay, the editor/publisher of TotalAction.com (http://www.totalaction.com) and editor-in-chief of The Sweet Science (http://www.thesweetscience.com), who compiles numbers for public consumption and fantasy gaming through his service, "The Charles Jay Line," has once again posted the most comprehensive list of odds on a major event, this time tackling the NFL Draft, which emanates from New York and which begins Saturday at Noon ET.
Jay has set forth a number of draft propositions which are currently posted at Diamond Sports International (http://www.2betdsi.com), one of the world's largest online sportsbooks. There are plenty of two-way players comparisons on who will be drafted higher. For example, Braylon Edwards, the All-American wide receiver from Michigan, is a very slight favorite (-130: risk 1.30 to win 1.00) to have his name called before Mike Williams, the great wideout from USC who had to sit out last season when he was deemed ineligible by the NCAA. "This is a tough call," says Jay, "because while one has to believe that Norm Chow, the new offensive coordinator at Tennessee, would want to pick Williams with the sixth pick, Edwards might get scooped up by the Bears, who could use another receiver, at #4. Edwards is rated higher than Williams by most people."
Will one Notre Dame player be chosen before three players from the University of Georgia? Jay figures it's likely, as he established a line of -140 (in which you'd be laying 7/5) that it would happen, obviously looking for the late interest expressed in Fighting Irish defensive lineman Justin Tuck to vault him into, or close to, the first round. Speaking of late interest, quarterback Jason Campbell's stock seems to be rising, and that is the impetus behind Jay making it -175 that Auburn will have at least four first-round draft picks from last year's 13-0 team.
Defensive players taken in the first round are favored by 4-1/2 over offensive players, where it is basically a pick 'em proposition (laying 11/10 both ways). How many quarterbacks will get the call throughout the entire seven-round draft? You'd lay 3/2 (-150) that at least 23 of them will be taken.
Curious about former Heisman Trophy winner Jason White? It's -160 (8/5 against) that he will not be drafted before the final round, if at all. As for Ohio State's troubled star, Maurice Clarett? He's only a slight favorite (-110) to be among the first 200 picks. It is a 3/1 shot that the Cleveland Browns will draft anyone with the last name of Brown, "and it's only that low due to the slight chance that Auburn running back Ronnie Brown slips to them with the #3 overall pick," Jay says.
Incidentally, in case you were wondering, Alex Smith is favored by 39-1/2 draft spots over his namesake.
And if by this time you're still confused as to which Alex Smith is which, you might want to get out your NFL draft guides and start cramming.
(Propositions from The Charles Jay Line can be found at Diamond Sports International, at http://www.2betdsi.com. Odds are subject to change. For further information, visit TotalAction at http://www.totalaction.com. All information is for entertainment purposes only, and is not intended to promote the violation of any local, state or federal laws.)
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