Princeton, NJ (PRWEB) May 10, 2005
New Jersey consulting firm Business Restoration Partners will conduct two one-day seminars in Atlanta during the first week of June that will address the alarming rise in Chinese energy consumption. (go to http://www.business-restoration-partners.com for seminar info) International economist James A. McCune will cover the segment on China's economic outlook, as well as the segment on long-term forces impacting the U.S. economy.
Atlanta seminar attendees will hear Mr. McCune make the case that China is poised to import 10 million barrels of oil per day by 2010 Â an amount roughly triple what they imported in 2004. This result, or anything near it, will affect all of ChinaÂs competitors, including anyone who drives a car!
The Atlanta seminars will focus on changing patterns of consumption and development that have already begun to increase the energy intensity of ChinaÂs economic growth. This trend, says McCune, will only intensify going forward: ÂFor the ten years between 1990 and 2000,Â McCune states, ÂChinaÂs real GDP grew at an average rate of 10% per year, while energy consumption grew 3% per year. This means energy usage per unit of real output fell about 6% per year...but this is changing fast.Â
ÂThis trend abruptly turned around in 2002,Â McCune says, Âwith energy consumption growing 2 percentage points faster than real GDP.Â With ChinaÂs jump in oil imports during 2004 already having a significant tightening effect on the oil market, and on oil prices, Âthis is just the beginning,Â says McCune, Âwith new auto plants being built rapidly, and with 50 million or so Chinese that make over $7,000 per year, China is on the verge of explosive growth in both auto production and auto purchases, and it takes a great deal of energy both to make them and to drive them.Â
But according to economist McCune, it's not just autos driving China's energy consumption.
Ten million barrels of oil imported every day would be bad enough, but McCune is concerned that his forecast has a real chance of being too low: ÂChina's place in its development cycle suggests that future growth will be higher up the value added chain, and therefore more capital and energy intensive than in the past. Adding this to the auto component, energy growth per unit of real economic growth could actually be higher than the 1.2% per year I have built in...but if it is, something will probably come unglued along the way.Â (Go to http://www.business-restoration-partners.com for info on attending one of the Atlanta seminars.)
In Atlanta Mr. McCune hopes to get some lively input from seminar participants. ÂThe study isn't finished yet,Â he states. ÂI plan to tweak the China forecast based on input from the Atlanta seminars and have the finished report available to the general public by the end of June.Â
Persons interested in attending one of the Atlanta seminars on China can go to http://www.business-restoration-partners.com for more information on the topics covered in the seminars and how to register, or they can call Mr. McCune at the number listed below.
Business Restoration Partners is an economic and financial consulting firm offering analytical tools and advice to help U.S. businesses compete in today's difficult business environment.
James A. McCune
Business Restoration Partners, LLC
609 933 2687