LAEDC Westside Economic Forecast to be Released Today (Fri) Along with San Gabriel Valley Forecast
LAEDC Chief Economist Jack Kyser will present the "2006 Westside Economic Overview & Forecast." Two panels featuring the city managers of all six Westside cities and executives from four major regional companies will discuss the pressures that affect business.
Los Angeles, CA (PRWEB) November 4, 2005 -- The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, the region’s premier business leadership organization, will release its Westside economic forecast on Friday, Nov. 4th. The forecast written by LAEDC Chief Economic Jack Kyser focuses on the economy for the Westside of Los Angeles County.
The Westside, as detailed in the LAEDC study, is roughly bounded on the north by the crest of the Santa Monica Mountains. On the west, the region's boundary is the Pacific Ocean, with about 35 miles of coastline running from the city of Malibu down to Marina del Rey. On the south, this region's boundary is the southern flank of Culver City, then a line running east parallel to the I-10. The eastern boundary is Hoover St. and Hyperion Ave. The LAEDC study acknowledged that the area is not homogeneous.
Total population of the Westside in the April 1, 2000 census was 1,051,352 people, with the bulk living in Los Angeles city. To put this into some perspective, the Westside is comparable in size to the Salt Lake City metro area.
Total employment hit a new record level of 636,432 in 2004. However, the path has not been smooth, as the area has been impacted by the dot-com boom and bust as well as the ups and downs of the entertainment industry. Further gains are forecast in 2005 and 2006, with the job count in the latter year placed at 667,487.
The largest employment sector in the Westside is professional & business services with a 2005 average of 123,868 employees, about comparable with the average of 123,823 jobs in 2003.
The number two employment sector in the Westside is “leisure & hospitality services,” which includes hotels, food service as well as performing arts and museums. Its average employment in 2005 is placed at 92,726 jobs, which will be a new high.
The third ranked industry in employment was education & health services, with a 2005 average of 89,539 jobs.
The fourth largest employment sector in the Westside is “information,” which includes motion picture & TV production, broadcasting and telecommunications. The average 2005 employment is estimated at 77,824 jobs.
One challenge highlighted in the LAEDC study is that only two of the Westside’s largest employment sectors, information and business & professional services, have high wages.
The business base of Westside is small-to-medium sized firms, even though it has some high profile corporate headquarters, such as Northrop Grumman, Occidental Petroleum, KB Home and Hilton Hotels.
To help business leaders better understand the area and to guide future growth, the LAEDC performed a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threat (SWOT) analysis.
Strengths
| | - The area has a diverse economic base which generates jobs with incomes at all levels. This base includes: entertainment (movies, TV & video games), financial services, health care and medical research (Cedars-Sinai and UCLA Medical Center), tourism and high-end (destination) retail.
- A well-defined image, especially for the "far" Westside -- Santa Monica, Beverly Hills and West Hollywood.
- A cluster of noted higher educational institutions: UCLA, Loyola-Marymount, Otis Art Institute, Pepperdine, and community colleges.
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Weaknesses
| | - Lack of affordable housing (owners/managers live on the Westside; others must drive in, or rely on limited public transit).
- Traffic congestion (the 10 and 405 freeways are chronically congested, with somewhat limited access; arterial streets are growing more congested).
- Opposition to more dense development -- some major projects are underway, serving to fan the fires of opposition. Worse yet, high land values speak to higher density development in the future.
Opportunities
- Continued growth in business & professional services and entertainment (the senior staff can live where they work).
- Rail transit service: Exposition Boulevard Light Rail line (construction should start in 2006, but it will only go to Culver City), and discussion of a possible extension of the MetroRail Red Line to Fairfax. Neither would directly serve major employment concentrations, although the Expo Line could stimulate some development along its route which is just south of I-10.
- "inferior" goods (convenience, travel time, etc.). Both affluent and less affluent residents want to drive despite worsening traffic.
- Some Westside areas are currently the focus of considerable development activity (commercial and residential):
- Hollywood
- Koreatown
- Century City
- The Wilshire Blvd.
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Threats
| | - Uncoordinated economic development strategies (5 independent cities, plus a large swath of the city of Los Angeles). This could result in "intra-region" competition.
- High land costs limit development of both residential and nonresidential projects (projects will be high priced). "West" Westside affordable is practically an oxymoron!
- The motion picture/TV production industry is going through major changes in the way it does business -- new ways of delivering the product and introduction of digital technology. This is in addition to the standard threats of runaway production and piracy. Worse, the Screen Actors Guild recently elected more confrontational leaders, which raises the potential for labor unrest over the next few years.
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Some Strategies
Based on the SWOT for the Westside, there will be continued growth despite some high hurdles. If this growth is going to be "smart," it will require smart leadership.
However, due to the diverse nature of the Westside and its business base, and the difficulties involved in communicating with all the constituencies, the region's leaders face a challenge. It would be wise for them to focus on just a few issues. The issues that would seem to be at the top of the list are traffic congestion and affordable housing.
About LAEDC
The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC), the region’s premiere business leadership organization, is a private, non-profit organization established in 1981. Our mission is to attract, retain, and grow business and jobs in Los Angeles County.
Since 1995 through May 2005 the LAEDC has helped retain or create more than 100,000 jobs, providing $3.5 billion in annual economic impact from salaries and $65 million in annual tax revenue benefit to Los Angeles County. For more information, please visit www.laedc.org.
(Editors: For the entire forecast please visit: http://laedc.info/pdf/GreaterWestside-2005.pdf . For interviews, images call: George McQuade 818.340.5300 or 818.618.9229. To register or for more information about the event, please call 310-398-0953 or visit www.westside-la.org.)
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LAEDC San Gabriel Valley Economic
Forecast to be Released Friday, Nov. 4th
The San Gabriel Valley Economic Partnership presents the 2006 San Gabriel Valley Economic Outlook Breakfast taking place Friday, November 4, from 8:30am to 11:30am at the Pacific Palms Conference Resort in the City of Industry. Jack Kyser presents 2006 SGV Economic Forecast.
Los Angeles, CA- The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, the region’s premier business leadership organization, will release its San Gabriel Valley economic forecast on Friday, Nov. 4th. The forecast written by LAEDC Chief Economic Jack Kyser focuses on the economy for the Westside of Los Angeles County.
Covering over 400 square miles of eastern Los Angeles County, the San Gabriel Valley as defined in this report is bounded by the San Gabriel Mountains on the north, the cities of Pasadena, Monterey Park and South Pasadena on the west, the crest of the foothills that run to the south and parallel to the I-60 (Pomona Freeway) on the south, and the Los Angeles/San Bernardino county line on the east.
There are 30 incorporated cities in the Valley, plus several large areas of unincorporated territories that include some distinct communities.
The total population of the San Gabriel Valley in the April 1, 2000 census was 1,510,378 people. By January 2006, the Valley’s population should reach 1,771,350, an increase of 17.3 percent. To put this into some perspective, the Valley’s population is comparable to that of the San Francisco metropolitan area.
In 2004, total employment in the San Gabriel Valley hit a new record level of 626,632 jobs, and the forecast is for continued job growth in both 2005 and 2006. In the latter year, the job count should be 643,700.
The largest employment sector in the San Gabriel Valley is education and health services, with a 2005 average of 93,860 jobs. This was a new high level for this sector. Right on its heels was professional and business services, with a 2005 employment average of 92,780 jobs, also a new high.
The third largest employment sector in the San Gabriel Valley is manufacturing. In 2005, the job count was 75,838, down by over 18,000 jobs from 2001.
The fourth largest employment sector in the San Gabriel Valley is retail trade with an average of 75,240 jobs in 2005.
The highest annual wages in the San Gabriel Valley were found in the information sector with the second highest level of wages in the financial services sector.
The industrial vacancy rate in the San Gabriel Valley was an ultra-tight 1.2 percent during the third quarter of 2005. A real challenge for the Valley is finding land for new development. New homebuilding in the Valley has run at a moderate level over the past few years, and again faces the challenge of finding development sites.
As for the Travel and Tourism industry, Pasadena, the steadiest performer, enjoyed occupancy rates above 75.4 percent, while cities in and around Pomona had occupancy rates of about 71 percent.
To determine the outlook for the San Gabriel Valley, a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis was prepared by the LAEDC.
Strengths
| | - A large and unique higher education base
- Ability to spin out new high-tech firms
- Unique cultural institutions
- Medical research/treatment capabilities
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Weaknesses
| | - The Valley is running out of land for any type of development
- Lack of affordable housing
- Traffic congestion due to growth in international trade as well as population
- Workforce education, with concern over drop-out rates in K-12 education
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Opportunities
| | - Still a desirable location for manufacturing, logistics and research development activities
- Redevelopment of brownfield site possible
- Ability to develop high-tech firms
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Threats
| | - The bane of most of Southern California -- high land prices that drive up the cost of
development.
- As high-tech start-ups (many from Cal Tech) get larger, they often move out of the San Gabriel Valley because of both cost and talent pool availability issues.
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Some Strategies
While the San Gabriel Valley has been successful as measured by employment growth, it still faces a lot of challenges. What could it do to support good quality growth in the future? While there are many issues that deserve attention, such as land use, it's best to focus on just a few where there could be mid-term results. Here is the list suggested by the LAEDC:
| | - Congestion relief: Southern California has huge needs for congestion relief, and these projects will be expensive. The Valley would have a hard time going it alone, but has thoughtfully become part of the Southern California Leadership Council, a private sector effort to solve these problems.
- Workforce training: While there are many efforts at improving workforce training, results are still disappointing. It's time to step back and do an honest assessment of the situation and come up with a better program.
- Stopping the loss of small high-tech firms: It has been noted that Cal Tech graduates start up a lot of high-tech firms, but as they get larger too many move out of the region. An effort needs to be made to see what could be done to keep these firms in the Valley, as they can be the key to future prosperity.
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About LAEDC
The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC), the region’s premiere business leadership organization, is a private, non-profit organization established in 1981. Our mission is to attract, retain, and grow business and jobs in Los Angeles County. Since 1995 through May 2005 the LAEDC has helped retain or create more than 100,000 jobs, providing $3.5 billion in annual economic impact from salaries and $65 million in annual tax revenue benefit to Los Angeles County. For more information, please visit www.laedc.org.
(Editors: For advanced interviews, forecast link, images call: George McQuade 818.340.5300 or 818.618.9229. For more information, please call 626-856-3400)
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