Owise.com Launched, Innovative New Prediction Community

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Owise.com is a new community-based paradigm for predicting future events. Members register predictions in the system, which are scored as events occur. Members with superior track records influence the Owise prediction more, earn titles, and win cash prizes. The result: accurate predictions without all the complexities, potential manipulation, and gamesmanship of "prediction markets."

Owise.com, the world’s first Neural Prediction Community, recently launched and is already making group-based predictions that are more accurate than many experts. Owise uses neural network-like techniques to combine individual opinions and predict the chances that future events occur.

“Owise is a new form of Prediction Market, but without all the trappings of the Market,” Co-founder Stephen Pendergrast said. “By letting our analysts focus on just making estimates and freeing them from all the money-management and gamesmanship of markets, we can obtain a lot more information.”

Owise.com uses innovative techniques to estimate the chances of future events occurring by combining the opinions of its members, who are called “analysts”. Each analyst’s track record is carefully maintained, and used to determine how much weight that analyst’s opinion has on future predictions. Owise members with good performance receive titles, such as Senior Analyst, as well as cash prizes. Anyone can join Owise without cost and start building their track record and title.

“Anyone can come to Owise and prove they deserve the title ‘analyst,’” Owise Co-founder Scott Pendergrast said. “Top analysts can win cash prizes as well as bragging-rights. By using Owise as an independent third party to track your record, you can prove you know what you’re talking about. For example, a political blogger might come prove their ability to analyze political events at Owise, earning an independently certified title and giving them more credibility.”

Owise.com has hundreds of events active at any given time, including:

-- Political events such as “Probability that Karl Rove Will Resign”

-- Sports events such as who will win the World Series

-- Military events such as “Probability of Major Troop Withdrawals from Iraq”

-- Entertainment events such as which new TV shows will be canceled

-- Economic events such as future Oil prices or Productivity numbers

-- Weather prediction events such as Number of Hurricanes in 2005,

--And more.

In the category of Weather, Owise.com proved to be far more accurate than hurricane prediction professionals at estimating the number of hurricanes in the 2005 Atlantic season. Owise consistently estimated that the number of storms would be higher than what weather experts said, even at the very start of the season, and was within a fraction of the final correct number, fourteen, weeks before the season ended.

“In theory, systems like Owise can outperform the best experts, by properly combining a group of experienced analyst’s opinions.” Stephen Pendergrast said. “We have only been online for a few months, but already Owise estimates are getting hard to beat. As the system learns which analysts are most reliable, and our base of analysts grows, Owise has improved dramatically in accuracy.”

Copyright 2005, Mindwise Media, LLC – Mindwise Media, LLC is a technology incubator company.

For more information on Owise, visit http://www.owise.com

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Steve Pendergrast
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