'Forecasts for Broadband Communications:' A New Analyst Paper by Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI)

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Broadband will continue to be adopted at a rapid rate and higher broadband speeds will also increase dramatically. This 12-page analyst paper by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI) provides analyses and forecasts for each.

Broadband will continue to be adopted at a rapid rate, and ultimately, reach levels of penetration comparable to other popular consumer electronics. Higher broadband speeds will also increase dramatically. By 2010, over 10% of U.S. households will likely subscribe to at least 24 Mb/s service, and by 2015 penetration should exceed 50%. Internet protocol video (IP video), especially high-definition (HD) IP video, is a key driver for higher data rates. This 12-page analyst paper by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI) provides analyses and forecasts for each.

According to Dr. Vanston, "Both Moore's Law and the move to IP video are driving an increase in data rates for broadband, and with entertainment, voice, and information all being delivered efficiently over Internet connections, near ubiquity is almost inevitable. The ability to provision very high data rates, reliably, economically, and universally, will be the key to carrier competitiveness in the future."

The paper is priced at $199. More information is available at http://www.tfi.com/pubs/p/p2005-fhbbs.html.

The material in this paper is adapted from TFI's report "Forecasts for Higher Bandwidth Broadband Services." The research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting

Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of Bell Canada, BellSouth Telecommunications, Qwest, SBC, Sprint, and Verizon.

Two graphs from the paper are available on TFI's website:

Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate,


Provisional Forecast of U.S. Households Using High-Definition IP Video, http://www.tfi.com/pressroom/pr/2004_broadband-fig2.html.

A table of contents and a list of exhibits follow this press release.

This paper would be of interest to the following organizations:


--Cable Companies

--Wireless Broadband Providers

--Equipment Manufacturers

--Content Providers

--Municipal Broadband Providers

--Utility Broadband Providers

--Internet Service Providers

This paper would be of interest to those involved in:

--Strategic Planning

--Network Planning

--Technology Planning


--Market Development

--Regulatory / Tax / Legal

--Depreciation and Assessment

We would be pleased to have this analyst report reviewed by your publication and/or be cited for articles examining the subject matter. Dr. Vanston would also be glad to be interviewed and

quoted for articles relating to the subject matter.

Author Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., is an internationally-recognized authority in the use of technology forecasting in the telecom industry. His research reports and forecasts are used and referenced extensively worldwide. Dr. Vanston's views on telecom trends have also been cited in many major publications including "Telephony," "America's Network," and "Lightwave." The September 21, 1998 issue of "The Wall Street Journal" featured an in-depth interview entitled "Consultant's Call: Lawrence Vanston Makes Some Pretty Bold Predictions for the Future of Telecommunications. He Has Been Right Before."

Notably, the predictions therein have likewise come true. His full bio is available at http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/vanstonl.html.

For more than 25 years, TFI has helped organizations plan for the future by offering outstanding technology forecasting, strategic planning, trend analysis, and strategic market research services in high-technology and telecom technologies. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the technologist. Let us be "Your Bridge to the Future."

We are always happy to comment on the subjects of technology and telecom trends. For a list of citations by our staff members, please see "TFI News" at http://www.tfi.com/pressroom/tfinews.html.

For our "Press Room," please see http://www.tfi.com/pressroom/index.html.

Press contact: Please contact Ms. Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or by e-mail with questions about the paper, and/or to arrange an interview with Dr. Vanston, or other technology and telecom experts at TFI.

Thank you for your attention.

December 2005

Technology Futures, Inc.

13740 Research Boulevard, Building C

Austin, TX 78750

(800) 835-3887 or (512) 258-8898

Fax: (512) 258-0087


"Forecasts for Broadband Communications"

Table of Contents:

Status and Forecast for Broadband Access

Drivers for Higher Bandwidth

Forecast of Households with Very-High-Speed Broadband Access

Forecasts for Broadband Video


List of Exhibits:

1. Forecast Broadband Households, Percentage of Households

2. Adoption of Various Consumer Communications Products and Services

3. Broadband Households in the United States and South Korea

4. Forecast of HDTV Households

5. Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate, Percentage of Households

6. Trend in Residential Access Data Rates

7. Forecast Adoption of Standard and Very-High-Speed Broadband, Percentage of Households

8. TF Forecast of U.S. Households using IP Video

9. Provisional Forecast of U.S. Households Using High-Definition IP Video

10. Comparison of High Definition IP Video and 24 Mb/s Broadband Bandwidth Forecasts


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Carrie Vanston