Tribute For 50th Anniversary of M. King Hubbert’s Bold Prediction of U.S. Oil Peak

This online tribute commemorates the 50 year anniversary of M. King Hubbert’s bold and accurate prediction that United States oil extraction would peak in 1970. The tribute includes video of Hubbert, interviews with contemporaries and successors, a comprehensive bibliography, and previously unavailable images of Hubbert. The tribute is at www.mkinghubbert.com.

(PRWEB) March 8, 2006 -- Today marks the fifty year anniversary of M. King Hubbert’s seminal speech in which he accurately forecasted the 1970 peak of United States oil production. Few heeded Hubbert’s warning at the time and many - notably including high ranking officials the United States Geological Survey and industry - actively sought to discredit his work. The lack of preparation on the government’s part set the United States up for the oil shocks of the 1970’s and egregious dependence on foreign oil that we experience today.

Hubbert (1903-1989), a distinguished geophysicist, first developed his peak oil theory in the middle 1930s. He first advanced these ideas at the 1948 American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) convention. Hubbert was “swamped with mail, universally favorable” after the 1948 speech was printed a year later. But it was hardly noticed by the petroleum industry even though it was little different from the 1956 version that caused uproar. Hubbert could be more specific in his 1956 analysis because of additional data and he predicted US crude production would peak in 10-15 years. This conclusion, which was almost universally considered outrageous at the time, proved startlingly accurate.

In honor of M. King Hubbert’s courageous stand, Post Carbon Institute is hosting an online tribute featuring interviews with contemporaries and successors of Hubbert. The tribute provides a rare glimpse into the life and times of M. King Hubbert, the grandfather of the peak oil movement. The tribute features interviews with his nephew Michael Hubbert and former Secretary of the Interior Stewart Udall.

The tribute includes Hubbert’s Successors I, the first of series of compilations of brief audio commentaries. Hubbert’s Successors I features Roscoe Bartlett, Richard Heinberg, Albert Bartlett, Megan Quinn, Pat Murphy, Walter Youngquist, Ron Swenson, Kenneth Deffeyes, Matthew Simmons, Stewart Udall, Jan Lundberg, Colin Campbell and Steve Andrews. “There is not other single name so connected with energy and oil as M. King Hubbert,” says U.S. Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD). “His pioneering work has been quoted by just about everyone who is interested in the subject. His influence cannot be overestimated. He was a giant.”

The tribute also includes a Hubbert bibliography, a narrative of the events surrounding the speech and other milestones in Hubbert’s life, and previously unavailable images. The tribute will be updated regularly for at least the next year. Features to be posted soon include an interview with Hubbert historian and interviewer Ronald Doel and previously unavailable video footage of a conversation with Hubbert, as well as Hubbert’s Successors II compilation.

Also featured on the site are Hubbert quotes. Hubbert famously said “Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know… We are not starting from zero. We have an enormous amount of existing technical knowledge. It’s just a matter of putting it all together. We still have great flexibility but our maneuverability will diminish with time.”

Hubbert said the science of matter and energy is incompatible with what he called our exponential growth culture. “The steep ride up the and down the energy curve is the most abnormal thing that has ever happened in human history. Most of human history is a no-growth situation. Our culture is built on growth and that phase of human history is almost over and we are not prepared for it. Our biggest problem is not the end of our resources. That will be gradual. Our biggest problem is a cultural problem. We don’t know how to cope with it.”

Even in the face of denial of epic proportions, Hubbert remained optimistic: “Since the problems confronting us are not intrinsically insoluble, it behooves us, while there still is yet time, to begin a serious examination of the nature of our cultural constraints and of the cultural adjustments necessary to permit us to deal with effectively with the problems rapidly arising. Provided thus can be done before unmanageable crises arise, there is promise that we could be on the threshold of achieving one of the greatest intellectual cultural advances in human history.”

“I found the work of M King Hubbert to be one of my greatest inspirations,” says Richard Heinberg author Powerdown and The Party’s Over. “What amazed me was how he understood not only the geological process of oil depletion but also what that would that mean for society as a whole and what we should do about it. It’s as though Hubbert understood the whole peak oil discourse that has developed over the past several years almost from the very beginning. Hubbert is one of the great visionaries of our age. Future generations will look back on him and say here was someone who understood this before any one else, it’s too bad we didn’t listen to him more.”

“Hubbert is one of America’s pioneering thinkers on energy resources and sustainable society,” says David Room, Director of Municipal Response for Post Carbon Institute. “Yet all of his warnings to the establishment – in 1948, 1956, 1962, and 1974 – were generally ignored. It is tempting to wonder where we might be if starting from 1974 when Hubbert testified to Congress, population stabilization, solar energy, conservation, and a non-debt based monetary system were at the forefront of our federal, state, and municipal policy. Now we must ask ourselves if it is acceptable to falter again in our responsibility to future generations, this time failing to heed the warnings of Hubbert’s successors.”

To view the Hubbert tribute, visit www.mkinghubbert.com. The interviews are also posted on www.globalpublicmedia.com.

About Post Carbon Institute
Post Carbon Institute assists societies in their efforts to relocalize communities and adapt to an energy constrained world. We believe that production of oil and natural gas will peak soon, climate change is worsening, and the current global economic system is unstable and reinforces huge disparities. Our response is to promote drastically lower consumption, greater local self-reliance, and more cooperative and inclusive communities. Our three program areas are education, research, and action. For more information, visit www.postcarbon.org.

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