Disaster Experts Agree on Pandemic Points, Disagree on Others

As the only physician on a panel of experts and governmental officials, Dr. Maurice Ramirez, shares his views as a disaster expert on the Avian Flu pandemic.

Orlando, FL (PRWEB) April 7, 2006 -- At the recent National Association of Home Care and Hospice in Washington DC, Professor John Barry and Doctor Maurice A. Ramirez addressed the issue of Pandemic Flu Preparation. Also included on the panel were Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich, former Senator Dole. Dr. Ramirez, the only physician on the panel, agreed with several points made by Prof. Barry, author of “The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History,” but had some contradictory views on others.

The Doctor and the Professor do agree that this coming epidemic is a mathematical certainty. A genetic drift takes place in the flu virus every seven years, and genetic shift takes place every 13 years. If you take the multiplier of seven and 13, add the results to the year of the last epidemic, 1918, you come to the year 2009. Given a variable of +/- three and a half years (half of the seven year drift), the next pandemic illness could sweep the country anytime from 2006 to 2012. They also agree the country (government and private health care) is not prepared.

The two experts also agree that the hardest hit age group will be the 18 to 36 year olds, just as it was in 1918. They also agree that cancer survivors and HIV patients on immunization medication stand the best chance of not contracting the disease. Dr. Ramirez has a more encouraging view of the rate and effects of the pandemic than Barry does. While not believing the effects will be as widespread as in 1918, Dr. Ramirez admits to the possibility of a “worst case scenario” including a 78% infection rate, with a 54% mortality rate among those who contract the strain.

Where they disagree is where the majority of caring for those who contract the illness will fall. Barry believes the situation will be similar to 1918 in that family and friends will bear the burden. Dr. Ramirez feels, if they prepare now, it is still possible for institutional and home-based health care organizations to stem the tide and decrease the spread of the disease by providing home based rather than hospital based care.

Dr. Ramirez has recently been named the Founding Chair of the American Board of Disaster Medicine. He was integral in the creation of Board Certification in Disaster Medicine for physicians and his address challenged those in attendance to join the effort to establish a Board of Certification in Disaster Medicine for all levels of Health Care Professionals. Directing a board of collective clinical specialties, Ramirez is in a unique position to provide a collective knowledge base and advise to various organizations. As diplomats in matters relating to disaster mitigation and response, physicians certified by the American Board of Disaster Medicine serve as community resources, disaster responders as well as advise and assist governmental and non-governmental organizations.

The founder and president of High Alert, LLC, a Florida corporation dedicated to disaster preparedness, recognition, response and recovery education for businesses and communities nationally, Ramirez is the first Central Florida physician to complete the National Disaster Life Support (NDLS®) Instructor Program. Through his company, Dr. Ramirez teaches businesses emergency preparedness and recovery.

Dr. Ramirez is Board Certified in nine medical specialties. He is affiliated with the National Disaster Medical System under the Department of Homeland Security. Additionally, he is a consultant to two medical organizations in the area of disaster medicine and disaster medicine training and the co-founder of National Disaster Life Support of Florida. He has published numerous articles in professional and scientific journals and has been citied in over 20 textbooks.

For more information, or to arrange an interview with Dr. Maurice Ramirez, please contact:

Russell Trahan,
PR/PR
800-786-1764
PRwhiz @ prpr.net

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