Results of Monthly Forex Tracking Survey

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The results for the monthly forex sentiment survey conducted on December 3-5. The results show U.S. dollar sentiment deteriorated vs. the euro and jpy.

In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional foreign exchange dealers by, the leading forex discussion website and home of the original forex forum, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has deteriorated. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EUR/USD was 1.3391 from 1.2804 a month earlier. The EUR/USD spot price at the mid-point (December 4 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.3325.

The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was steady in the EUR/USD at 58 from 56 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.

The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast turned lower to 113.27 from 114.86 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 115.35. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index remained USD bearish. It was 28 after 30.

Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $61.34 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $58.33 estimate.

In a special question, participants were asked if they thought that the U.S. would intervene in support of the USD against the EUR before the end of 1Q07. 11% said yes while 89% said no.


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Jay Meisler
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