Results of Global-View.com Monthly Forex Tracking Survey

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The results for the Global-View.com monthly forex sentiment survey conducted on December 3-5. The results show U.S. dollar sentiment deteriorated vs. the euro and jpy.

In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional foreign exchange dealers by Global-View.com, the leading forex discussion website and home of the original forex forum, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has deteriorated. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EUR/USD was 1.3391 from 1.2804 a month earlier. The EUR/USD spot price at the mid-point (December 4 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.3325.

The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was steady in the EUR/USD at 58 from 56 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.

The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast turned lower to 113.27 from 114.86 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 115.35. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index remained USD bearish. It was 28 after 30.

Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $61.34 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $58.33 estimate.

In a special question, participants were asked if they thought that the U.S. would intervene in support of the USD against the EUR before the end of 1Q07. 11% said yes while 89% said no.

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Jay Meisler
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