TFI's New Report "Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband"

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In its new report, Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI) predicts wireless broadband can be economically deployed on a reasonably large scale -- perhaps 20 percent of households -- to offer the types of broadband services that DSL and cable modems offer now: that is, speeds in the range 1 Mb/s and relatively bursty traffic. "Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband," by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), provides an independent assessment of the potential for wireless broadband to compete with residential broadband services offered by incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) and cable companies.

In its new report, Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI) predicts wireless broadband can be economically deployed on a reasonably large scale -- perhaps 20 percent of households -- to offer the types of broadband services that DSL and cable modems offer now: that is, speeds in the range 1 Mb/s and relatively bursty traffic. "Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband," by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), provides an independent assessment of the potential for wireless broadband to compete with residential broadband services offered by incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) and cable companies.

Discussing the report, Dr. Vanston states, "Over the next 10 years, we expect that residential broadband will migrate to very-high-speed (VHS) broadband, with much higher data rates (24 Mb/s and above) and much more continuous traffic, such as video. Until significantly more spectrum is allocated, it will be difficult for wireless to compete with wireline for VHS broadband on a large scale."

The research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, BellSouth Telecommunications, Qwest and Verizon.

Key findings from "Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband" are:

-Wireless broadband is expected to be economically deployed on a reasonably large scale -- perhaps 20 percent of households -- to offer the types of broadband services that DSL and cable modems offer now: that is, speeds in the range 1 Mb/s and relatively bursty traffic.

-Over the next 10 years, residential broadband will migrate to very-high-speed (VHS) broadband, with much higher data rates (24 Mb/s and above) and much more continuous traffic, such as video.

-VHS wireless broadband deployment will likely be limited to niche applications, where landline broadband is expensive or not available, and mobile applications.

-Making up for revenues lost to competition for voice services and standard broadband acts as a further incentive for ILECs to deploy fiber to provide VHS broadband and video services.

-With additional spectrum and further technical progress, wireless broadband may compete with wireline for VHS broadband as well, but this will probably take a decade, long enough for the economic deployment of wireline VHS broadband.

This report will be of interest to:

  • Incumbent local exchange carriers
  • Competitive LECs
  • Cable TV companies
  • Internet service providers
  • Telecom equipment manufacturers
  • Regulatory personnel
  • Depreciation professionals
  • Property tax professionals

A table of contents follows this press release.

We would be pleased to have this report reviewed by your publication and/or be cited for articles examining the subject matter. Dr. Vanston would also be glad to be interviewed and quoted for articles relating to the subject matter.

Author Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., is an internationally-recognized authority in the use of technology forecasting in the telecom industry. His research reports and forecasts are used and referenced extensively worldwide. The September 21, 1998, issue of "The Wall Street Journal" featured an in-depth interview entitled "Consultant's Call: Lawrence Vanston Makes Some Pretty Bold Predictions for the Future of Telecommunications. He Has Been Right Before." Notably, the predictions therein have likewise come true. His full bio is available at http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/vanstonl.html.

For nearly 30 years, TFI has helped organizations plan for the future by offering outstanding technology forecasting, strategic planning, trend analysis, and strategic market research services and publications in high-technology and telecom technologies. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the technologist. Let us be "Your Bridge to the Future."

We are always happy to comment on the subjects of technology and telecom trends. For a list of citations by our staff members, please see "TFI News" at http://www.tfi.com/pressroom/tfinews.html. For our "Press Room," please see http://www.tfi.com/pressroom/index.html.

Press Contact: Please contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or by e-mail with questions about the report and/or to arrange an interview with Dr. Vanston or other technology and telecom experts at TFI.

Purchasing contact for your readers: Report details and ordering information are available at http://www.tfi.com/pubs/r/r02006_awbcwb.html. Readers interested in purchasing a copy may also contact Debra Robison, Technology Futures, Inc. at (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898, fax (512) 258-0087, or by e-mail. The report is $495.

Thank you for your attention.

New Telecom Report by Technology Futures, Inc.

"Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband"

Table of Contents:

Chapter 1: Introduction and Summary

Chapter 2: Radio Frequencies for Wireless Broadband

Chapter 3: Key Factors in Wireless Broadband Systems

Chapter 4: Cost Elements for Wireless Broadband

Chapter 5: Cost per Subscriber Assuming All Indoor Antennas

Chapter 6: Cost per Subscriber Assuming All Outdoor Antennas

Chapter 7: Conclusions

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CARRIE VANSTON
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