Football Betting Tips And Strategies From PinnacleSports.com
Largest Online Sportsbook Details Betting Strategies and Line Movements On Key Games.
(PRWEB) September 21, 2006 -- Professional players dedicate many hours each week shopping for the best price, and often spend more time in this endeavor than handicapping. Given that the sharps are betting high limits each week, this is time well spent even if it adds only 1% to the bottom line. But how can the average player making $100 bets get the best price without turning odds checking into a full-time job?
Half the battle is won in preparation, so before handicapping, players should have their money in place. Ideally, bettors will take advantage of Pinnacle Sportsbook’s -104 NFL pricing which offers up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other online sportsbooks. Plus players should also have one or two “recreational books”, which use inflated lines on favorites.
It’s also a good idea to keep a fair amount of money liquid in a NETeller account, where it can be put into play quickly. Most sports books, including Pinnacle Sportsbetting, instantly credit accounts with NETeller deposits. Even limiting odds comparison to just 10 minutes per week, this small amount of preparation still adds 1% to the expected return.
Another tactic bettors can use to always get the best price doesn’t involve any additional work, but instead emphasizes the importance of timing. Instead of handicapping during mid-week or Friday for weekend games, players should begin analyzing the games immediately after the weeks’ games are completed. Reviewing college football games Saturday night or Sunday morning and NFL games Sunday evening, gives players one more money-spinning opportunity – betting into overnight lines.
Many sportsbooks typically post overnight lines on all major sports. College and pro football usually go up Sunday night, and are very volatile when the lines are first posted. These lines don’t have to be extremely sharp because early betting quickly tightens prices against reduced limits.
A well known anecdote among linesmakers at Pinnacle Sports is that the first few bets taken on any overnight line are ALWAYS sharp plays. These bets are made by smaller bettors who have already analyzed the games and don’t mind lower limits. These early bettors are often long-term winners. It’s worth conceding this edge to the early sharps as it provides an invaluable service by sharpening the lines, allowing PinnacleSports.com to raise limits to significant levels. Without these early “$100 geniuses,” we couldn’t offer $30,000 limits on NFL games.
It can’t be stressed enough that the one thing bettors can do to win more is bet against overnight lines. This is especially the case with the smaller markets like NCAA football totals. If betting into early lines seems a little intimidating, try this experiment: For four weeks, track the opening lines. When making plays, make a record of whether a better price would have been on the opener, or against the closing line. Nearly all players will find that with the exception of significant injury news or changeable weather conditions, the line moves during the week give a worse price than if it was bet early.
For those already doing early handicapping and using a moderate sportsbook selection, there are other ways to be a smarter shopper.
For those willing to spend just a little more time bargain-hunting, the best time to do so is when the lines are moving quickly. For example, say the line at the Pinnacle Sportsbook is shifting against a bettor, try making a play at a recreational book that moves lines more slowly. On the other hand, if one likes the direction of the line change, wait for the market to stabilize, and take the best price. The trick is to recognize when these movements occur. After the normal bouncing around of openers, the only two other factors that routinely cause substantial movement are injury announcements and large bets before game time.
What are bettors backing this week?
Northwestern v Nevada O/U 47.5
With more than 100 NCAA Div-IA teams, not to mention the various Div-IAA teams, we have to price a lot of product quickly for openers every Sunday afternoon. Some numbers - especially totals – can be a bit loose when they open. This total was set at 52 and was quickly corrected by the “$100 geniuses”. When four smaller sharps play the same side of a college total opener, Pinnacle Sportsbook gets to a good price cheaply.
Baltimore -6.5 -105 v. Cleveland
The Ravens have been dominant on both sides of the ball, outscoring their opponents 55-6 this season. The Browns have been lackluster, losing to New Orleans and Cincinnati. Baltimore opened at -4 and favorite money poured in. Early money on the favorite was taken at the rate of twenty bets on the Ravens for each one accepted on the Browns.
Philadelphia -6 -110 v. San Francisco
The Eagles opened as a 4-point favorite and were immediately bet up by the public. Once again, a majority of the money was fading the underdog with five bets on the Eagles for every one on the 49ers.
Atlanta -3.5 -108 v. New Orleans
Although this game isn’t until Monday night, it’s the most heavily traded game this week. The Saints opened at +3 -115 and were driven up to +3.5 +100. While the betting is fairly equal on both sides, market drift has pushed this price up. With a lot of favorites heavily backed and one can’t help but wonder whether the favorites will repeat their 58% cover rate ATS in 2005.
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