Cheltenham Champion Hurdle - Detroit City, Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace and Straw Bear Reviewed by JumpingJockey.com Team

Jumpingjockey.com team compare the main players for the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle on Tuesday covering form, course, going, speed ratings and age.

(PRWEB) March 13, 2007 -- This years Champion Hurdle will be the smallest since 1980 with just ten runners. This no doubt has something to do with the fact that runners include Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace, Straw bear and the formidable Detroit City. The message for all is clear, if you want to win this race, you'll need to have a horse thats very special indeed. Its hard enough beating just one of the four mentioned, but to face all in one race ! thats a huge ask indeed.

JumpingJockey.com (http://www.jumpingjockey.com) have compared some of the many variables and trends to help determine who will win this race, they cover form, going, course, speed, stats and age for the four mentioned above.

Form - the best form on paper is Detroit City, form is a key indicator and the best form is currently with Detroit City. Next best is Hardy Eustace (just) from Brave Inca and then Straw Bear.

Going - Predicted to be Soft, possibly Good to Soft if the weather holds. Best form over Soft is Detroit City, last two runs on soft and the two previous over Good to soft. Next best is Hardy Eustace. Brave Inca's recent form has been better over Heavy ground and has yet to win on soft
ground this season. Straw Bear like Brave Inca has had mixed results over soft ground.

Course - Best performer at Cheltenham is Detroit City - three wins ( with two of his last three race wins at Cheltenham), Hardy Eustace - three wins, Brave Inca - two wins, no wins at Cheltenham for Straw Bear. Detroit City edges Hardy Eustace simply because two of his last three runs were at Cheltenham.

Speed ratings, based on recent runs (last three) Detroit City has the best speed ratings with Hardy Eustace 2nd best, Straw Bear 3rd and Brave Inca 4th. In terms of best ever speed, Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace jointly are clear with Detroit City and Straw Bear similar, however, we know that Detroit City and Straw Bear achieved their top speeds recently which indicates that in terms of form they are spot on. Its rare for a horse to suddenly find extra speed if they have not been showing it recently.

Stats - Best trainers and jockeys win rate,

Trainers - CA Murphy (Brave Inca) 50%, DT Hughes (Hardy Eustace) 18%, PJ Hobbs (Detroit City) 9%, NJ Gifford (Straw Bear) no wins.

Jockeys - Ruby Walsh (Brave Inca) 20%, AP McCoy (Straw Bear) 18%, Richard Johnson (Detroit City) 12%, CO'Dwyer (Hardy Eustace) 8%.

The Horse with best combination of jockey and trainer are - 1st Brave Inca, 2nd Hardy Eustace, 3rd Detroit City, 4th Straw Bear.

Age, many previous including recent winners have been between 7-8 years old with the 'great' Istabraq winning three in a row from the age of 6. Its rare for 6 year old, and almost never for 5 year old to win. However, that being said, its rare to see a winner aged over 8, the one of recent times was Rooster Booster, an exceptional horse for sure. Its difficult to say who is best or worse off in terms of age, in Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace, we have exceptional horses, but in Detroit City we have a 5 year old in seriously good form and still improving. The stats say Detroit City will not win due to his young age, but its also difficult for the others also. Given the winner will most likely be one of these four, previous trends based on age may not be relevant this year.

In summary, Detroit City heads all but two of the key areas (stats and age), with Hardy Eustace 2nd, Brave Inca 3rd and Straw Bear 4th.

The JumpingJockey.com team (http://www.jumpingjockey.com) feel that the recent form, speed and experience on soft ground at Cheltenham combined will win the day and we are on the verge of seeing a new great emerge. The lower win rate for the Hobb's yard is not a big concern as they have won this race before and are one of the power houses of UK horse racing. The yards form is arguably the best currently also. Given Detroit City's age, it would appear that it is his race to lose, a small mistake from the young gun could hand victory to Hardy Eustace or Brave Inca but he's won twice already at this track and knows it well, to make matters worse, Detroit City seems to be able to lead, be held up and play tactical as well. Its going to take the combined brain power of some the best jockeys in the world on great horses to beat Detroit City, no wonder there are only ten runners.

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