Menlo Park, CA (PRWEB) October 8, 2007
Studies have shown that large groups of regular people are often more accurate than a small group of experts at predicting the outcome of future events. Launched today, Predictify aims to harness this collective wisdom.
Predictify is a prediction platform that enables members to post questions about future events and collect a large sample of predictions, up to 10,000 per question, about the outcome. Predictify's unique system captures the full distribution of predictions, not just the average, and provides easy-to-use graphical tools to analyze the results. Posting questions is free - or, for a small fee, members can keep the results private and filter by predictor demographics. Businesses and individuals can use this data to gain insight into future product releases, sales forecasts, consumer sentiment, or market trends, to name a few examples.
Predictify also provides a simple, fun way to engage in current and future newsworthy topics. Members can find events that interest them, predict the outcome, build a reputation based on accuracy, compete against friends, and even get paid real money when they're right. Best of all, it's free to predict - no points or bets are required.
Predictify is based on the concept of collective wisdom, which combines the responses of a large number of users into a powerful collective prediction. Unlike surveys and polls, Predictify asks members to consider the likely outcome of an event, not their personal opinions or beliefs, and tracks each member's historical predictive accuracy to identify experts among its user base.
In a real-world example of this phenomenon, Predictify asked beta members to predict how much the Federal Reserve would change interest rates during its meeting in mid September. On Predictify 14.3 percent of respondents predicted that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by half a percent, while 17.2 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted the same outcome. Predictify users were roughly as accurate as a group of expert economists, indicating the power of collective wisdom.
For more information on Predictify, visit http://www.predictify.com.
Studies have shown that large groups of regular people are often more accurate than a small group of experts at predicting the outcome of future events. Predictify is a prediction platform that harnesses this collective wisdom, providing a unique source of insight into the minds of Internet users. Predictify is based in Menlo Park, Calif., and can be found on the Web at http://www.predictify.com.