London, UK (PRWEB) October 24, 2007
In the first 17 weeks of this agricultural year which began June 1, 2007, the US exported 25.865 Million Tons of wheat against an annual forecast of 31.3 Million Tons - see http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/weeksumm.htm
The CBOT wheat commentary on Tuesday October 23 pointed out that during the last 33 weeks of the agricultural year which ends on June 1, 2008, the USDA predicts wheat export sales of 5.44 Million Tons, which amounts to sales of 164,000 Tons per week. But the average sales during the last 17 weeks were 1.529 Million Tons per week not 164,000 Tons per week.
The October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) shows that the US will have 8.5 Million Tons of exportable wheat left at the end of this agricultural year on June 1, 2008, assuming that they only sell 164,000 Million Tons of wheat per week for the next 33 weeks - see http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
Choenix Denarius Ltd, a British Investment Research Group, has done some elementary mathematics on these figures and arrived at a startling and cataclysmic conclusion.
"If the US exports 1 Million Tons per week for the next 5 weeks then the entire annual USDA export projection will be met in 22 weeks. If it continues to sell 1 Million Tons per week for 8 weeks thereafter then the US will run out of exportable wheat entirely in January 2008. This is not rocket science, it is elementary arithmetic." Says Gordon Ritchie, a Director of Choenix Denarius Ltd.
"Normally at this time of year the Australian wheat harvest kicks in and lowers the rate of US exports, but Australia, the second largest wheat exporter, is presently experiencing the worst drought in its history and their Agriculture minister recently commented that the wheat crop is likely to be no better than last year where they barely grew more than they need for internal consumption. The Australian government statistics from ABARE show that they grew 9.8 Million Tons and they consumed 7 Million Tons, last year," explained Ritchie.
"When people get hungry things get ugly. Historical precedents such as WW2 and the French Revolution teach us that food is more important than money. But these lessons appear to have been forgotten," says Choenix Denarius.
They point out that even today as we stand on the precipice of zero US year end wheat stocks, farmers are getting less than $7 for next year's wheat crop in circumstances where wheat went to $27 in infaltion adjusted terms in the famine of 1972 - see http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2437.html
So eat your last loaf of bread, order your last takeaway pizza, gobble up your last plate of spaghetti and say sionara to your last Singapore noodle, because by January 2008 all the exportable wheat on the planet is projected to be toast not by the USDA but by a simple calculation using their own figures.
For the Christian reader the good book says: A quart of wheat for a Denarius in Revelation 6:6. "That is one end times prophecy that looks near to fulfillment" says Gordon Ritchie - see http://www.truebiblecode.com .