Los Angeles, CA (PRWEB) May 7, 2008
USAElectionPolls.com is a website that analyzes and monitors the polling agencies and they have concluded that the media has taken Barack Obama off his perch.
Depending on the pollsters you watch, Barack Obama has been slipping. The latest polls by USA Today/Gallup and AP/Ipsos each have Clinton ahead 7% nationally, a 17% gain by Clinton according to USA Today and a 10% gain by AP/Ipsos.
Despite the fact that the results from those two pollsters suggest a strong trend towards Barack Obama, the latest CBS/New York Times poll has Obama ahead by 12 points nationally. Polls are just an estimation of public opinion and carry with them an uncertainty. Weighting, methodology, error, demographic imbalances can all cause the polls to conflict with each other.
Bhatta published a YouTube video in which he describes one example of media's choosing of polls.
The issues that cause inconsistencies in polls are not always known to the media so here is what generally happens. According to Paul Bhatta from USAElectionPolls.com, "The media concocts a story in their head about the presidential race and then look to the polls to find a poll that substantiates their story." Bhatta further explains that this is how the media has kept the Reverend Wright story in the news.
"Reverend Wright did not affect Barack Obama's numbers initially but after time it did. Not because people genuinely cared but because they were fed story lines that made them believe it was important." He claims that pollsters poll on issues they know will grab the most media headlines and a dangerous pattern begins. Media selects the polls that agree with their storyline and the pollsters poll on issues in the media. "As a result of this phenomenon, the Reverend Wright issue started to become embedded within the fabric of this presidential race and voters began to see it as an important issue and that has caused the Barack Obama campaign to be taken off their game," says Bhatta.
But when asked what the true cause for the initial slip in polls if not for Reverend Wright, Bhatta explained that losses in Texas and Ohio was what started the ball rolling. He further goes on to say that the polls have been oscillating over the past month in a very topsy turvy race. "The media has been overplaying little movements in the polls in an effort to even out the race. They were very critical of Clinton when the race started, so now it is time for Obama to handle the heat."