WSI Energycast 2008 Tropical Forecast Calls for Active Atlantic Season

Share Article

WSI issues an update of special interest to energy traders

WSI Corporation issued a regularly-scheduled update to their 2008 Atlantic tropical season forecast on June 24. The 2008 forecast continues to call for 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). These forecast numbers have not changed since our April update. The forecast numbers are significantly higher than the 1950-2007 averages of 9.7 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes. The expectations for an active 2008 season arise from (1) the expected continuation of warmer-than-normal Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies into the heart of tropical season and (2) the likelihood of a favorable or neutral wind shear environment on the heels of the recent La Nina event.

The 2008 WSI forecast comes on the heels of a very successful 2007 forecast. The May 15 preseason forecast values of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes were slightly larger than the final observed values of 15/6/2, but the forecast fared better than the other well-publicized tropical forecasts. The August 14 update reduced the forecast numbers to 14/6/3, a correct prediction of a reduced risk of hurricanes relative to the May forecast.

According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, "Since 1995, most tropical seasons have been more active than the long-term averages, due to warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures. We do not see any reason why this active regime will not continue in 2008. The recent La Nina event, which is decaying somewhat this spring, should leave behind a wind shear environment that is favorable for the development of tropical systems in the summer and fall of 2008. Further, surface atmospheric pressures have been persistently low across the tropical Atlantic during the last month, potentially implying a more favorable environment for development. Lastly, our forecast model has been quite consistent with the forecast numbers all spring."

WSI has been providing industry-leading seasonal forecasts for energy traders since 2000. The next full seasonal forecast package, which will include forecasts for late summer and fall temperatures in both the US and Europe, will be issued to clients on July 15 and to the press on July 22. The next update on the 2008 tropical season will be issued to clients on July 15 and to the press on July 23.

About WSI
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Landmark Communications. More information about WSI can be found at http://www.wsi.com.

Contacts:
Kristen Sullivan    
Weather Services International     
(978) 983-6607    

###

Share article on social media or email:

View article via:

Pdf Print

Contact Author

Kristen Sullivan
Visit website