WSI Energycast Outlook Calls for Warm Fall, Cold December in Northeast

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WSI expects the upcoming three-month period to average warmer-than-normal across most of the eastern two-thirds of the US, with below-normal temperatures confined to the Rockies and Pacific Coast states. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).

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WSI Corporation issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming three-month period (October-December) on September 23. WSI expects the upcoming three-month period to average warmer-than-normal across most of the eastern two-thirds of the US, with below-normal temperatures confined to the Rockies and Pacific Coast states. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).

The monthly breakdown for the upcoming fall season follows:
In October:
Northeast     - Warmer than normal
Southeast     - Cooler than normal
N Central     - Warmer than normal
S Central     - Cooler than normal
Northwest     - Cooler than normal
Southwest     - Warmer than normal, except CA

Expected Market Impact (provided by ESAI) t            
The WSI October forecast continues to indicate (after a chilly start) warmer-than-normal temperatures in most areas, especially the Northeast and North Central regions. Cooler temperatures are expected in the western coastal region. Injections to gas storage are likely to be above normal as warmer temperatures in the key heating regions of the Northeast and upper Midwest delay the need for heating. Planned generator maintenance programs will have a greater influence on power prices than any fluctuations in load due to shoulder season temperature variations.    

In November:
Northeast     - Warmer than normal
Southeast     - Colder than normal
N Central     - Warmer than normal
S Central     - Warmer than normal
Northwest     - Cooler than normal
Southwest     - Warmer than normal, except NV/CA

Expected Market Impact (provided by ESAI) t            
The WSI November forecast indicates slightly warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast and Central regions with cooler temperatures in the Southeast and in the Northwest. Early-season heating demand for natural gas should be slightly below average due to warmer temperature expectations across the northern tier of the country. Power prices in most regions will tend to be related to generator planned maintenance programs through late November, although early season cold later in the month could be bullish for power prices prior to the completion of maintenance.

In December:
Northeast     - Colder than normal
Southeast     - Warmer than normal
N Central     - Colder than normal
S Central     - Warmer than normal
Northwest     - Colder than normal
Southwest     - Colder than normal

Expected Market Impact (provided by ESAI) t            
The WSI December forecast indicates cooler-than-normal temperatures in the key heating regions across the northern tier of the country. This is likely to be bullish for natural gas demand and also for prices as the season gets off to a start with higher than normal demand. Cooler early winter season weather will be moderately bullish for power prices in the northern states due to higher than average loads.

According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, "The relatively cold subsurface ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, along with recent trends in tropical Pacific surface ocean temperatures, now suggest that a return to at least weak La Nina conditions is likely later this fall. The current climate signals suggest a warm October/November across the Northeast quarter of the US, followed by a sharply colder December. Assuming that the La Nina event does emerge, there are many similarities to the year 2000, which was a very cold winter over much of the US. At the current time, we feel that the most significant cold weather will occur in the north-central US this winter, although the Northeast will likely be cold for at least the first half of winter as well."

WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, issues its seasonal outlook twice-monthly. The next new forecast package (for November-January) issued on October 14.

About WSI
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England and was recently purchased by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. More information about WSI can be found at http://www.wsi.com.

About ESAI
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing information about world-wide energy markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil, natural gas, and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services, see http://www.esai.com.

Contacts:
Kristen Sullivan    
Weather Services International     
(978) 983-6607    
ksullivan @ wsi.com    

Jill Kinsley
Communications Manager
ESAI
(781) 245-2036

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