New Book Discusses Major Electoral Phenomenon and Predicts Obama Wins with 51.1 Percent (+/-2.7 Percent) of the Popular Vote

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The Democratic Trend Phenomenon discusses a unique and virtually unknown phenomenon pertaining to the popular vote for the Democratic candidate for president. The author of the book, Anthony E. Fairfax, brings to light compelling evidence that the popular vote for the Democratic candidate for president trended in an extremely predictable and "linear" pattern from 1972 to 2000 (if the election of 1976 is disregarded). In fact, the Trend was so predictable that the popular vote for the Democratic candidates, in the elections of 1992, 1996, and 2000, could have all been determined in 1988 with an accuracy of 99% or better. During that same period of time, the popular vote for the Republican candidates did not display a predictable pattern and fluctuated from election to election.

Democratic Trend Phenomenon Graph

Amazingly, the predictable trend occurs despite the fact that each election contained varying voter turnout percentages, different opponents, fluctuating U.S. and global conditions, and diverse candidates

The Democratic Trend Phenomenon discusses a unique and virtually unknown phenomenon pertaining to the popular vote for the Democratic candidate for president. The author of the book, Anthony E. Fairfax, brings to light compelling evidence that the popular vote for the Democratic candidate for president trended in an extremely predictable and "linear" pattern from 1972 to 2000 (if the election of 1976 is disregarded). In fact, the Trend was so predictable that the popular vote for the Democratic candidates, in the elections of 1992, 1996, and 2000, could have all been determined in 1988 with an accuracy of 99% or better. During that same period of time, the popular vote for the Republican candidates did not display a predictable pattern and fluctuated from election to election.

This unique predictability or "linearity" has been deemed by Fairfax as, "The Democratic Trend Phenomenon." His book discusses the cause of the phenomenon, measures its predictability, and outlines the future effects. "Amazingly, the predictable trend occurs despite the fact that each election contained varying voter turnout percentages, different opponents, fluctuating U.S. and global conditions, and diverse candidates," states Fairfax. These differing electoral conditions are extremely intriguing when you consider that: the voter turnout fluctuated from election to election; opponents varied from Richard Nixon to Ronald Reagan to George W. Bush; and Democratic candidates ranged from George McGovern to Bill Clinton to Al Gore.

One of the most interesting discoveries of this novel theory involves projecting the popular vote percentage for the Democratic candidates as well as those whom Fairfax calls the "Non-Democratic" candidates. Because of the phenomenon, the percentages of the popular vote for the Democratic and combined Non-Democratic candidates also tend to trend in a linear fashion. Projecting the percentage for the 2008 election yields 51.1% (+/- 2.7%) of the popular vote for Senator Barack Obama while 48.9% (+/- 2.5%) is divided amongst Senator John McCain and the other Non-Majority Party candidates. Fairfax states that an even more interesting side note is that these projections could have been made shortly after the 2004 election.

The book is divided into four parts. Part One of the book includes chapters that describe the phenomenon as well as layout a theory that outlines the historical environment that existed in order to create the predictable trend. Part Two includes chapters with statistical techniques that prove the presence of the Phenomenon along with other associated trends. Part Three analyzes the Phenomenon at the state level. Part Four includes chapters that discuss the future potential results regarding the popular vote for the Democratic candidates for president.

The book is available from Amazon.com. If you would like to receive additional information on the book, or wish to schedule an interview, please e-mail democratictrend @ censuschannel.com or call 800-838-8595. Visit http://www.democratictrend.com for more information.

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Anthony Fairfax
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