How Obama Won the U.S. Presidency - Betfair
Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States of America - a result correctly predicted by Betfair customers back in February following the Super Tuesday primaries. Betfair's betting markets have so far traded a total of £36m ($57m) over the course of the election campaign. They also foresaw Obama's victories in most of the key swing states on polling day - only Missouri appears to have failed to fall to the Democrats - as Republican candidate John McCain endured a torrid night. Obama is already being given a 60% chance on Betfair of being elected for a second term in 2012. This is how Barack Obama's fortunes changed on Betfair...
London, UK (PRWEB) November 5, 2008 -- Time and time again, Betfair customers have proven they can predict election outcomes better than the pollsters. With this in mind Betfair has just launched a new site, Betfair Predicts (www.betfairpredicts.com) to showcase the predictive power of its markets.
The site offers live and interactive charts of Betfair's markets, all of which can be easily reproduced on external sites or blogs. These charts update in real time and offer users a new dimension to look at the markets, spot trends and analyse events. In addition, the site offers commentary and analysis on prediction markets, explaining their value, the reasons why they are so accurate and what they can be used for.
The highs and lows of Betfair's Next President market
BARACK Obama will be the next President of the United States of America - a result correctly predicted by Betfair customers back in February following the Super Tuesday primaries.
Betfair's betting markets have so far traded a total of £36m ($57m) over the course of the election campaign. They also foresaw Obama's victories in most of the key swing states on polling day - only Missouri appears to have failed to fall to the Democrats - as Republican candidate John McCain endured a torrid night.
Obama is already being given a 60% chance on Betfair of being elected for a second term in 2012.
This is how Barack Obama's fortunes changed on Betfair...
A: Obama wins in Iowa, propelling him into the lead for the Democratic nomination. (Jan 3rd) % chance: 47% Barack Obama, 15% John McCain
B: The lead is short-lived as Hillary Clinton pulls off a shock win in New Hampshire. (Jan 8th) % chance: 25% Barack Obama, 15% John McCain
C: John McCain secures the Republican nomination after Super Tuesday on 5th February. (5th Feb)% chance: 30% Barack Obama, 33% John McCain
D: Barack Obama finally looks to have secured his party's nomination following a primary win in North Carolina. (2nd May) chance: 56% Barack Obama, 35% John McCain
E: The 'Palin Bounce' starts a period of recovery for the McCain campaign. (4th Sept)% chance: 62% Barack Obama, 38% John McCain
F: This rise did not last long and from the day investment bank Lehman Brothers went bankrupt the gap got ever wider. (15th Sept) % chance: 55% Barack Obama, 45% John McCain
| | - Total amount traded on all Betfair markets during this election campaign (as at 0600 GMT, Weds 5th Nov 2008) - £36m ($57m)
- Betting Highs & Lows:
- Obama traded at a high of 13-2 for small money.
- McCain traded at a low of 6-5 (over £100k was matched at 5-4 or less).
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For live information from all markets visit www.betfairpredicts.com
Contact: Mike Robb - michael.robb @ betfair.com
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