New TFI Report Forecasts Continued Modernization of Local Exchange Network with Transition to All Fiber, All Packet Technology by 2015-2020

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New TFI Report forecasts continued modernization of the local exchange network with transition to all fiber, all packet technology by 2015-2020. This and other key findings are documented in the fourth edition of TFI's flagship publication "Transforming the Local Exchange Network" by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. and Ray L. Hodges. The report is sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group, comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon.

Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI) forecasts continued modernization of the local exchange network in the fourth edition of its flagship publication "Transforming the Local Exchange Network." According to author Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., "The transition by local exchange carriers from a narrowband network of circuit switches and copper cables to a broadband network of packet switches and fiber optics is well underway. This transition will largely be complete for the U.S. industry between 2015 and 2020." (See Graph 1: "Deployment of VHS Broadband Fiber" or The report is co-authored Ray L. Hodges and sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group, comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon.

Other Key Findings:

  • Demand for very highspeed (VHS) broadband will accelerate. (VHS = 10 Mb/s and above.) By 2013, the majority of broadband households will subscribe to VHS broadband. By 2016, 50 Mb/s and 100 Mb/s service will serve the majority of broadband households. (See Graph 2. "U.S. Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate" or visit
  • Dramatic access line loss to wireless, cable telephony, and VoIP will continue, resulting in more stranded plant. (See Graph 3: "U.S. Narrowband Access Lines by Carrier Type" or visit
  • Technology change and access line losses are accelerating the obsolescence and reducing the lives of telecommunications equipment.

For further information on the report, a table of contents, and list of figures for "Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition," please visit

We would be pleased to have this report reviewed by publications and/or be cited for articles examining the subject matter.

Lead-author Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., is an internationally- recognized authority in the use of technology forecasting in the telecom industry. His research reports and forecasts are used and referenced extensively worldwide. His forecasting track-record (see attached sample) is legend. The September 21, 1998 issue of "The Wall Street Journal" featured an in-depth interview entitled "Consultant's Call: Lawrence Vanston Makes Some Pretty Bold Predictions for the Future of Telecommunications. He Has Been Right Before." The predictions therein have come true as well. His full bio is attached or at

Co-author Ray L. Hodges brings over 30 years of telecom expertise and experience to his work at TFI, including 25 years with GTE Telephone Operations. Mr. Hodges' views and the results of his research have been cited by such publications as "Telephony," "America's Network," "Lightwave," "Wired," "[email protected] Week," and "Wireless Systems Design." His full bio is attached or at

For 30 years, TFI has helped organizations plan for the future by offering outstanding technology forecasting, strategic planning, trend analysis, and strategic market research services and publications in high-technology and telecom technologies. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to- earth judgment of the technologist. Let us be "Your Bridge to the Future."

PRESS CONTACT: Please contact Ms. Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or by e-mail with questions about the report and/or to arrange an interview with Dr. Vanston or Mr. Hodges.

PURCHASING CONTACT: Please visit for purchasing information. Readers may also contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898 or by e-mail. The report is $2,495.


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