Stock Market Sage Called Dow 7000 Almost One Year Ago To The Day

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Stockton Sage, blogger for, issued his now Internet famous "Manifesto" on March 5, 2008 that called for the Dow Jones to hit 7000 within a year. Today, March 2, 2009, the Dow Jones traded through 7000, making his prediction come true by 72 hours.

getting so popular and spreading over the internet. The video I did on the

One year ago, almost to the day, Stockton Sage sent out his "Manifesto" to some readers predicting the Dow Jones Average to drop from a high of around 14,000 to around 7,000. Now, one year later, almost to the day, the Dow Jones broke through 7000. "It has been an awful year for investors. For the first time in history the asset allocation model broke down, punishing all type of investors such as conservative, value, and growth investors." adds Stockton.

"I think it hurts so much this time around because we have the largest group of retirees (baby boomers) in the history of the world getting ready to retire, and these types of market drops will be impossible to overcome for them" Stockton said. Although Stockton did hit the Dow timing number almost to the nose, he also added that oil would spike to $250 a barrel within the next 12 months as well. That trend didn't happen with oil topping out around $140. "I see that Goldman Sachs had a spike predicted to $250 and that Warren Buffett recently admitted he bought more Conoco Philips with energy prices at all time highs, so I guess if I am going to get something wrong, I am in good company on that one." Stockton joked, "I wonder if Warren was a reader at the time."

So what does the Sage, as the website refers to him, see now for the markets? "In this environment, I hate to play the 'guess the bottom price of a stock' game. I like the 'guess which company will be in business in 3 years' game. Why try to time the market bottom, a fool's errand, when you can get a decent return on corporate bonds of solid companies, as long as you plan on holding them to maturity. The bond prices can change daily, but if you aren't planning on selling them, all you are concerned with is that they stay in business and pay their debts. For example, I don't know where the stock price of Walmart of Coke will bottom, but I can tell you for sure that they will still be in business in 3 years or 5 years. No matter how bad it gets, there will always be a McDonalds as people trade down in food prices and there will always be a Coke."

When asked if he saw the 7000 mark as a bottom or if we were going to go lower, Stockton replied, "It is impossible to know the absolute bottom. The problem right now is that there are still too many bullish investors out there saying it is the time to buy and jump on certain stocks now. We can't have an end to the bear market until all the buyers have been exhausted, and it looks like there is no hope and that there will never be a recovery. There are still too many bulls that need to be slaughtered before we can turn this market around." is a blogging site that tries to explain current financial headlines in a language that everyone can understand. By using video and text blogging the site looks at serious and humorous stories in the stock market and political arena. "I like to write for the site and it is always fun to read the comments back. I never saw the viral nature of the "Manifesto" getting so popular and spreading over the internet. The video I did on the "5 Most Overrated Value Investors" for the site is also getting quite a buzz on the social networking sites."

Stockton Sage


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