This imbalance could trigger the beginning of an inflationary cycle that would carryover to the entire economy. But that's what the Fed, the US Treasury, and the politician's objective is, right?
Phoenix, Arizona (PRWEB) March 11, 2009
Phoenix historical economist forecasts surprise retail boom in 2009.
"A combination of legislative mandates, the Stimulus Plan, reduced competition and new consumer savings and income could result in surprisingly robust retail sales by the Fourth Quarter of 2009," says H. L. Quist.
Quist adds, "I'm not an expert on retail but I do have an excellent track record of analyzing economic and political trends and forecasting future events. An unusual confluence of factors are coming together which could bring a pleasant surprise to the devastated retail industry."
"First," Quist explains, "The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) is a new, one trillion dollar, program designed to 'unlock' consumer credit that will begin on March 17. Secondly, the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act which took effect on February 10, prohibits the sale of imported products that contain lead or phthalates. It is estimated that there is more than $600 million in toys alone made illegal by the law that are sitting in warehouses. The Coalition for Safe and Affordable Childrenswear says its members have $500 million in unsalable soft goods. And, there's $125 million of motorized bikes, and four wheelers, all of which totals over $1 trillion dollars, according to an article by Joseph Pereira in the March 5th edition of the Wall St. Journal."
"Thirdly," continues Quist, "is the large number of retail chain stores and mom and pops outlets that have closed in the past year and inventories of the survivors have been slashed to minimums. A shortage of goods coupled with tax rebates and consumer savings could create a classic supply-demand imbalance going into the Christmas season. Toys, in particular, could be in short supply. Retailers could achieve pricing power and much needed profits will follow."
"The downside?" Quist sums up. "This imbalance could trigger the beginning of an inflationary cycle that would carryover to the entire economy. But that's what the Fed, the US Treasury, and the politician's objective is, right?"
H. L. Quist is the author of "The Aftermath of Greed: Get Ready For The Coming Inflationary Boom." He is also the author of 3 other non-fiction and fiction books, and is currently writing his follow-up to "The Aftermath of Greed.".
H L Quist