WSI Calls for Cool Summer in Southeast, Slightly Warmer-than-Normal in Northeast

Share Article

WSI expects the upcoming three-month period (May-July) to average cooler than normal across parts of the Southeast and north-central US, with above-normal temperatures common across the Northeast and Southwest. WSI also expects the summer period (June-August) to be cool across the Southeast, mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and southern and central Plains, with above-normal temperatures confined to the Rockies and Northeast. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).

WSI Logo

We expect most of the significant and prolonged heat this summer to be confined to drought-plagued areas of the western US

WSI expects the upcoming three-month period (May-July) to average cooler than normal across parts of the Southeast and north-central US, with above-normal temperatures common across the Northeast and Southwest. WSI also expects the summer period (June-August) to be cool across the Southeast, mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and southern and central Plains, with above-normal temperatures confined to the Rockies and Northeast. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).

"We expect most of the significant and prolonged heat this summer to be confined to drought-plagued areas of the western US," said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. "Our internal forecast models all suggest that the coolest temperatures, relative to normal, will be found in the Southeast this summer, with near to slightly above-normal temperatures in the Northeast. The North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans are now both cooler than normal for the first time in 15 years. This fact, along with a lack of any significant drought conditions in the eastern US, should result in a relatively cool summer east of the Rockies. We do think that there is potential for some notable heat in the Northeast early in the summer, before a cooler pattern sets in."

In May, WSI predicts regional temperature anomalies as follows:

Northeast     - Cooler than normal
Southeast     - Warmer than normal, except FL
N Central     - Cooler than normal
S Central     - Warmer than normal
Northwest     - Cooler than normal
Southwest     - Warmer than normal, except coastal CA

According to Paul Flemming, ESAI's Director of Power and Gas, "The WSI May forecast indicates cooler-than-normal temperatures in the northern tier of the country. In May, shoulder season loads normally apply, but early-season heat can increase electricity demand significantly. The cooler outlook for the northern regions will lower the likelihood of early-season heat-related demand for electricity and power sector gas demand."

ESAI further estimates that natural gas demand in May will again be influenced by higher gas plant utilization due to nuclear and coal generator maintenance programs and weather deviations will be less important due to shoulder season electricity loads. Though natural-gas injections to storage should be close to normal based on weather expectations, injections could be higher than normal due to lower economy-related demand expectations.

In June, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Northeast     - Warmer than normal
Southeast     - Cooler than normal
N Central     - Cooler than normal
S Central     - Warmer than normal
Northwest     - Cooler than normal
Southwest     - Warmer than normal, except coastal CA

"The WSI June forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast, South Central and Southwest regions," said Paul Flemming of ESAI. "Warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast are indicative of a higher probability of early-season heat events that are bullish for electricity demand and prices, particularly in New York and PJM. Cooler weather in the Southeast region should result in slightly lower gas demand from the power sector, partly offsetting higher demand expectations across the other southern regions."

In July WSI forecasts:
Northeast     - Warmer than normal
Southeast     - Cooler than normal
N Central     - Cooler than normal, except ND
S Central     - Cooler than normal
Northwest     - Warmer than normal
Southwest     - Warmer than normal, except coastal CA

"The WSI July forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures in the western regions, but cooler temperatures in South Central and Southeast regions," said Paul Flemming of ESAI. "Warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast will drive electricity loads higher and will be bullish for electricity demand and prices, especially with a higher likelihood of heat events. Cooler weather in the Southeast and central regions should result in slightly lower gas demand from the power sector, offsetting higher demand expectations in the west and in the Northeast."

WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, issues its seasonal outlook twice-monthly. The next new forecast package (for the June-August and July-September periods) will be issued on May 27.

About WSI
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, agriculture, insurance, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England and was recently purchased by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. More information about WSI can be found at http://www.wsi.com.

About ESAI
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing information about world-wide energy markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil, natural gas, and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services, see http://www.esai.com.

Contacts:
Kristen Sullivan    
Weather Services International     
(978) 983-6607    

Jill Kinsley
Communications Manager
ESAI
(781) 245-2036    

Editorial Contact:
Barbara Rudolph    
Rudolph Communications, LLC
(781) 229-1811

###

Share article on social media or email:

View article via:

Pdf Print

Contact Author

Kristen Sullivan
WSI
9789836607
Email >
Visit website