Bio-era Launches Thinking Ahead: An "Early Warning Service" for Novel H1N1 Pandemic Influenza

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Impacts of H1N1 on Business and the Economy Could Reach Hundreds of Billions of Dollars - New Service will Monitor and Analyze Developments for their Potential Significance for Businesses and Markets

Bio Economic Research Associates, or bio-era (, a leading independent research and advisory firm providing analysis on the future of the global bio economy, today announced the launch of a multi-client service to track the potential impacts of H1N1 pandemic influenza for service participants, markets and industries.

The service will provide independent, expert research and analysis on the on-going crisis, and the possible financial and business implications of the H1N1 influenza pandemic - both generally, and for the specific interests and markets of participating clients.

The service will provide:

  • Independent, expert analysis integrating the latest developments on the evolution of the disese event, public, media, and government perceptions of the degree of threat posed by the disease, and the reactions and responses - and the associated economic and business impacts
  • Scenarios for the evolution of pandemic influenza and the key implications for participating businesses, market participants, and investors.
  • Regular teleconferences with bio-era experts and participants to present and discuss the latest developments and bio-era analysis.
  • Occasional roundtables to share best practices

Under the leadership and direction of bio-era President, Stephen Aldrich, the service will deliver a steady stream of bio-era research and analysis from a distinguished expert faculty, as well as highly plausible scenarios for the evolution of the novel H1N1 pandemic, how government and public health agencies and institutions are responding, the implications for service participants - and how they can adapt.

Participants are expected to include companies with significant market exposure to trade and economic disruptions, investors, public health officials, researchers and analysts engaged in business planning, risk management, market analysis, and trading.

Novel H1N1 and the Risks of a Global Pandemic:

Now that the World Health Organization has declared the outbreak of novel variant H1N1 "swine" influenza to be a pandemic, the issue is "so what?" How will the spread of this pandemic influenza affect human societies and economies -- even specific markets, industries, and companies?

We know from past experience with SARS and H5N1, and from many studies carried out over the past few years (see attached bio-era Senate Testimony), that pandemic influenza can have enormous consequences for global trade and travel, with extremely large economic impacts. Precisely because this is so, a systematic approach to developing an "early warning" system with respect to the evolution of the disease event - its current and future trajectory, the local and global implications, and the reactions these provoke - can provide enormous benefits and opportunities to those prepared to act.

Learning What to Watch

This service is designed to help stakeholders address the following questions:

  • What indicators should the business community be watching with respect to the unfolding H1N1 pandemic?
  • What specific actions (travel advisories, quarantines, travel restrictions, etc.) are governments and public health authorities initiating, and what should we expect going forward?
  • How are local outbreaks of novel H1N1 changing perceptions and the degree of fear generally? How are perceptions and fears driving the response to the disease?
  • How and when will fears and the responses they provoke impact regional and global economies and the businesses operating within and/or interconnected with these regions?
  • How should businesses and market participants adapt?

By delivering a scenarios framework and logic to bound plausible outcomes, and providing continuous, expert evaluation of new developments in a manner which directly relates back to the scenarios framework - referencing key signposts, and signaling important forks in the road -- the service aims to improve commercial and business decision-making ahead of time - particularly in an environment likely to see a heightening of conflicting information, rumor, and fear.

To enroll in the service, or for more information, please visit or contact Stephen Aldrich or Grant Hastings at 617 876-2400.


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Grant Hastings
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